Research area

Macroeconomics

Research in this area seeks to generate and diffuse knowledge of the Norwegian economy and how it functions in the short, medium and longer term. Studies combine economic theory and econometric methodology. Important instruments include large-scale macroeconomic models that act as information repositories of use for prognoses, longer-term projections and estimates of the impact of, i.a., policy and international factors.

Research fields

  • Business cycle analysis and forecast

    Macroeconomic models and other methods are used to shed light on driving forces in the Norwegian economy over the short and medium term. Business cycle reports, including normally three- or four-year forecast, are published quarterly in Economic Survey. Analyses of historical developments are also conducted at irregular intervals.

    Go to research field business cycle analysis and forecast

  • Economic growth

    Research in this area addresses factors that stimulate economic growth, and how policy measures should be configured to promote economic growth by engendering productivity and technological innovation. Research combines economic theory, econometric methodology and more general model analysis. R&D, education, technological progress and the environment represent key areas of research here.

    Go to research field economic growth

  • General equilibrium models

    Equilibrium models are used for computing long-term projections and in policy analysis. They make the computation of macroeconomic trends possible under different environments, hereunder climate and environment policy, tax rules, pensions and welfare systems, business incentives. They can also be used to analyse the detailed impact on business structure, state financing needs or toxic emissions.

    Go to research field general equilibrium models

  • Macroeconometric modelling

    Macroeconometric modelling combines various econometric analyses of time series. Furthermore, the macroeconometric models have input-output relations connecting the model’s product supply to its applications. There is an emphasis on using the conceptual and definitional terminology used for the national accounts.

    Go to research field macroeconometric modelling

  • Macroeconomic analyses

    Macroeconomic analysis comprises economic trend analysis, long-term macroeconomic projections, analysis of alternative trends, impact of fiscal and monetary measures and counterfactual simulations of the economy. The macroeconomic models are an essential aspect of these macroeconomic analyses.

    Go to research field macroeconomic analyses

  • Public finances in the long term

    Research in this area includes studies of the impact of changing demographics, tax, social security system and other welfare provisions on the macroeconomy and government revenue. Impact analysis relies heavily on empirical estimation models.

    Go to research field public finances in the long term

  • Regional economy

    Research in this area entails studies of regional labour market mobility and regional economic and demographic trends, including international comparisons. A regional economic model is used. Other areas of study explore the effect of the macroeconomy on regional production, investment, employment, labour supply, unemployment, migration and demography.

    Go to research field regional economy

  • Time-series econometrics

    Econometrics combines economic theory and statistics in the analysis and testing of economic relations. Time series econometrics brings the temporal dimension into play, enabling a distinction between short and longer-term relations between economic variables. For example can time series econometrics analyse the effect of income, wealth and interest rate settings on private consumption in the short and long term.

    Go to research field time-series econometrics

News about macroeconomics

  • Do we need to work more? Consequences of less materialistic growth

    Macroeconomic analyses

    Published:

    How will working less and having more leisure time affect the Norwegian economy in the long term? A gradual shortening of the working day from 7.5 to 6 hours will, in isolation, reduce private consumption per capita by a third by 2060 compared with continuing to work the same number of hours as currently. Nevertheless, consumption in 2060 will be almost double the current level. Reduced working hours requires higher tax rates in order for the current public welfare system to be funded without violating the fiscal rule. In 2060, a tax rate on household incomes must be 10 percentage points higher than in the scenario without reduced working hours, and just over 12 percentage points higher than today.

  • Norwegian industries exposed to international competition

    Macroeconomic analyses

    Published:

    Which industries make up the internationally-exposed sector, and how has this part of the economy developed over time? The report shows that 14 per cent of employed persons in 2012 worked in exposed industries (E-industries). Since 2000, hourly wage costs have seen a higher increase in the exposed mainland industries than in the sheltered market-oriented industries (S-industries), while activity growth has been slightly lower.

  • Petroleum sector’s impact on the Norwegian economy and wages – future downsizing and sensitivity to oil price shocks

    Macroeconomic analyses

    Published:

    The use of oil revenues and petroleum sector demand will continue to be central to the Norwegian economy. This report presents projections up to 2040 and gives estimates of the macroeconomic effects of a large and sudden fall in oil prices.

  • Effects of increased petroleum sector demand and increased oil spending 2003–2012

    Macroeconomic analyses

    Published:

    The increased demand from the petroleum sector and the increase in the spending of “oil revenues” has had a major impact on the high economic growth over the past decade; it has increased employment and reduced unemployment. It has also diminished cost competitiveness and thereby reduced activity in traditional exposed industries.

  • Economic Survey

    Public finances in the long term

    Published:

    Economic Survey is an English version of the quarterly business cycle report from Statistics Norway. It includes an analysis of recent trends in the Norwegian economy and a forecast two-three years ahead.

  • Trade liberalisation and import price behaviour: the case of textiles and wearing apparels

    Macroeconometric modelling

    Published:

    In a Discussion Paper Andreas Benedictow and Pål Boug estimate a pricing-to-market model for Norwegian import prices on textiles and wearing apparels, controlling explicitly for the removal of non-tariff barriers to trade and the shift in imports from high-cost to low-cost countries through a Törnqvist price index based measure of foreign prices.

  • Selvforsterkende mekanismer vil forsterke følgene av finanskrisen

    Macroeconometric modelling

    Published:

    Selvforsterkende mekanismer mellom utlånsvirksomhet, aksjekurser og realøkonomisk aktivitet vil bidra til å forverre konsekvensen av dagens finanskrise. Årsaken til dette er at etterspørselen har blitt for høy i forhold til kapasiteten i økonomien og at korreksjonen blir større enn det den ellers ville ha blitt.