Economic Survey 4-2002

After declining from the first to second quarter, mainland GDP again expanded in the third quarter, according to seasonally adjusted, preliminary figures from the quarterly national accounts (QNA). Total GDP, however, showed the opposite, with a decline from the second to third quarter of 2002. For the year as a whole, GDP growth is expected to be about 1¼ per cent. Weak growth in demand both from the mainland economy and export markets in both 2001 and 2002 has contributed to curbing the growth impetus. Moreover, we have revised down our projections for growth in demand in 2003 and, combined with the loss of market shares, this will reduce GDP growth in 2003 compared with 2002. For 2004, production is projected to show an appreciable rise, both because the international upturn is expected to gain momentum and because of the reduced negative impetus from domestic demand.