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According to the prognosis, the population will climb at least for the next 20 years, and is expected to reach between 4.51 and 4.82 million in 2010. Stagnation or even a decline in the population will not take place until after 2025, although continued growth cannot be ruled out either.
Statistics Norway's population prognosis for the period 1996 to 2050 indicates continued population growth. According to the new prognosis, the population will reach between 4.43 and 4.50 million in the year 2000, against 4.37 million today. The percentage of elderly citizens will probably increase. By the year 2030 twice as many people as today may be 80 years of age or older. The current trend of delaying childbirth until later in life will likely continue, and a larger percentage of couples will probably be childless.
Growing number of people over 80
A main feature of the new prognosis is the continued ageing of the population. The number of persons over 80 years of age or more currently totals 176,000, four per cent of the population. In 2030 this age group is expected to number around 237,000-38l,000, which is between five and seven per cent of the population. This change has a strong correlation with the considerable decline in mortality presupposed by Statistics Norway in its new calculation. Life expectancy at birth last year was 74.8 years for men and 80.8 years for women. For 2050 the estimate is between 77 and 83 for men and 81.5 and 87.5 years for women. It is predicted that the age difference between the sexes, which already has been reduced over the past few years, will drop even more, from six years in 1995 to 4.5 years in 2050.
The number of children is increasing
The number of children under the age of 16 now stands at 907,000. According to the new prognosis this age group will increase to between 941,000 and 1.01 million sometime between 2000 and 2010.