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Industrial leaders in Norway have a positive outlook for first quarter 1997. Well-filled order books, expectations of higher production and demand are some of the underlying reasons for their optimism. Significant movements in prices are not expected in the short term.
For the manufacturing sector as a whole, production, seasonally adjusted, edged upwards in the fourth quarter. Following a slight turning point in the second quarter, output increased modestly throughout much of 1996. Production expectations for the short term have been very optimistic in the last few quarters.
Increased demand from the home and export markets is an important factor behind production trends in the fourth quarter. New orders from the home market increased modestly, seasonally adjusted, but have been relatively stable in the last few quarters. Demand from the export markets was stronger in the fourth quarter. This, however, must be viewed in light of the clearly weaker trend for major export industries at the end of 1995 and continuing into 1996. Changes in the last few quarters could indicate a turnaround. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the direction of international markets.
Weekly Bulletin issue no. 5, 1997