Migration patterns to and from Oslo among children and youth

The purpose of this study is to show the migration patterns to and from Oslo among children and youth, and also their migration patterns within Oslo. Migration data from the period 2000-2013 is used, as well as flow data for two cohorts of children with registered place of residence in their first and sixth year of life.

It is observed three main trends: From inner to outer city areas, from outer areas to the surrounding municipalities and from abroad and to Oslo.

The results show that there has been a large and growing gross out-migration and net out-migration of preschool children from Oslo, while net out-migration of schoolchildren and school youth is more moderate. This migration pattern is relatively similar in direction to Akershus, the other commuting surroundings and the country at large.

Both out-migration and net out-migration of children from Oslo is clearly highest in children's second year of life then gradually fall to a lower level when the children reach school age. This migration pattern helps somewhat to reduce the need for kindergarten in Oslo than if the bulk of the children's out-migration would have occurred later in the preschool age.

Immigration from abroad does, however, contribute to a growth in the number of preschool children as well as children and youth of school age. Children of immigrants also contribute somehow to net out-migration to Oslo’s commuting surroundings, whereas children with country of origin outside Europe have contributed to net in-migration from regions in Norway outside Oslo’s commuting areas, albeit less in recent years.

All areas in Oslo have larger immigration from abroad than emigration to abroad, especially among preschool children but also among children and young people of school age. The highest net out-migration from inner city areas in Oslo goes to other areas of the city, and especially to the outer areas, while the largest net in-migration to the outer urban areas comes from inner city areas.

A large percentage of net out-migration of children and youth from the western districts of Oslo goes to Asker and Bærum, from the eastern urban areas to Nedre Romerike while Follo is the largest recipient of net out-migration of young people from outer Oslo south.

Of children living in Oslo in their first year of life, about 2/3 is still living in Oslo at school age, while the rest live somewhere else as six year olds. In the inner parts of Oslo almost ¾ of the initial settled babies move out before they reach school age, while out-migration is clearly smaller in the outer urban areas.

The highest percentage of initial settled babies in Oslo staying elsewhere as six years olds are observed among children with background from countries in Western Europe, North America, Australia and New Zealand, from new EU countries in Eastern Europe and among children without immigrant backgrounds, while zero-year-old children with background from countries in the wider world more likely also stay in Oslo as six year olds.

Nearly 40 percent of out-migration of preschool children from Oslo is replaced through in-migration, particularly by immigration from abroad. Overall, the number of children living in Oslo at school age constitutes about 4/5 of the same age cohort who was settled in Oslo as babies six years earlier.

In the inner city, there is little compensation of the large out-migration of preschool children, and the percentage of children starting school in inner city areas is therefore low compared to the number of children living there in their first year of life. The compensation of relocation through in-migration is much higher among preschool children in the outer areas, where the outer western Oslo has a higher compensation through in-migration than the out-migration would indicate, while the outer eastern districts of Oslo experience the opposite.