Flat trend in manufacturing output continues

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Norwegian manufacturing output was nearly unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2019 compared to the third quarter, according to seasonally-adjusted figures. The long term trend now shows an almost flat production development since June 2019.

Written by: Marte Claussen

The index level for Norwegian manufacturing in the fourth quarter amounted to 119.4 (2005=100). The corresponding figure for the previous quarter was 119.6. After steady growth since May 2018, the long term trend for the second half of 2019 shows that the output increase has leveled out (see figure 1).

Figure 1. Production development in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted and smoothed seasonally adjusted figures. 2005=100

Smoothed seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted
Jan. 2014 121.0 121.7
Feb. 2014 121.5 121.5
Mar. 2014 122.0 122.4
Apr. 2014 122.5 121.8
May. 2014 123.1 122.3
June. 2014 123.8 125.0
July 2014 124.5 123.6
Aug. 2014 125.2 127.1
Sep. 2014 125.5 122.7
Oct. 2014 125.5 126.3
Nov. 2014 125.1 124.8
Dec. 2014 124.5 125.2
Jan. 2015 123.7 122.4
Feb. 2015 122.7 122.7
Mar. 2015 121.8 126.9
Apr. 2015 121.0 121.4
May. 2015 120.2 119.0
June. 2015 119.5 120.1
July 2015 118.9 115.2
Aug. 2015 118.3 118.1
Sep. 2015 117.6 118.8
Oct. 2015 116.9 115.8
Nov. 2015 116.3 116.9
Dec. 2015 115.8 115.3
Jan. 2016 115.4 115.1
Feb. 2016 115.1 115.4
Mar. 2016 114.8 117.9
Apr. 2016 114.5 114.3
May. 2016 114.1 114.8
June. 2016 113.6 112.6
July 2016 113.1 113.8
Aug. 2016 112.6 109.9
Sep. 2016 112.4 112.3
Oct. 2016 112.4 112.1
Nov. 2016 112.6 112.2
Dec. 2016 113.0 112.8
Jan. 2017 113.5 114.4
Feb. 2017 113.9 114.2
Mar. 2017 114.2 114.1
Apr. 2017 114.3 114.2
May. 2017 114.4 114.3
June. 2017 114.3 114.3
July 2017 114.3 114.7
Aug. 2017 114.4 110.6
Sep. 2017 114.5 114.1
Oct. 2017 114.5 114.3
Nov. 2017 114.6 114.8
Dec. 2017 114.7 115.9
Jan. 2018 114.8 113.9
Feb. 2018 114.8 114.5
Mar. 2018 114.8 115.0
Apr. 2018 114.9 115.3
May. 2018 115.1 114.7
June. 2018 115.5 115.4
July 2018 115.9 115.9
Aug. 2018 116.3 116.7
Sep. 2018 116.9 116.1
Oct. 2018 117.4 117.7
Nov. 2018 117.8 118.0
Dec. 2018 118.2 118.6
Jan. 2019 118.5 118.4
Feb. 2019 118.9 118.1
Mar. 2019 119.2 116.9
Apr. 2019 119.4 119.9
May. 2019 119.6 120.3
June. 2019 119.7 119.1
July 2019 119.7 120.2
Aug. 2019 119.6 118.9
Sep. 2019 119.5 119.7
Oct. 2019 119.4 119.7
Nov. 2019 119.4 119.2
Dec. 2019 119.5 119.2
 

Three-month change: Strong growth in ships, boats and oil platforms  

 According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output was nearly unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2019 compared with the third quarter, with only a slight decline of 0.2 per cent. While there was a feeble or negative development among several of the manufacturing industries in this period, building of ships, boats and oil platforms experienced a strong growth of 6.5 per cent. This increase was related to growth within production of oil platforms.

 On the other hand, basic metals contributed the most to dampen the overall development, with a production decline of 4.6 per cent. The decline was partly related to maintenance work as well as to weaker market conditions. Wood and wood products, together with the industry grouping rubber, plastic and mineral production were also among the industries that experienced a decline in this quarter.

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 2. Indicator for petroleum-related industries. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Petroleum-related manufacturing and support activities Petroleum-related manufacturing Manufacturing ex. petroleum-related industries
Jan. 2009 156.2 96.7
Feb. 2009 157.0 94.9
Mar. 2009 157.5 93.3
Apr. 2009 157.1 92.1
May. 2009 156.6 91.0
June. 2009 154.8 90.3
July. 2009 153.5 90.2
Aug. 2009 152.8 90.7
Sep. 2009 153.5 92.0
Oct. 2009 153.8 92.9
Nov. 2009 153.2 93.8
Dec. 2009 151.7 94.3
Jan. 2010 143.9 151.0 94.7
Feb. 2010 143.2 150.6 95.3
Mar. 2010 144.9 151.4 95.9
Apr. 2010 145.8 151.9 96.5
May. 2010 143.4 151.6 96.0
June. 2010 143.1 152.3 96.7
July. 2010 142.3 152.3 98.2
Aug. 2010 142.2 152.0 98.6
Sep. 2010 143.0 151.4 98.5
Oct. 2010 144.8 151.2 97.7
Nov. 2010 148.2 152.6 99.0
Dec. 2010 151.0 152.7 99.0
Jan. 2011 149.9 153.0 99.0
Feb. 2011 149.5 153.1 98.8
Mar. 2011 147.3 153.3 99.6
Apr. 2011 148.9 151.8 99.6
May. 2011 150.6 152.7 99.4
June. 2011 152.3 151.9 97.8
July. 2011 154.2 153.0 95.7
Aug. 2011 155.9 154.5 94.2
Sep. 2011 159.1 158.7 94.5
Oct. 2011 161.2 163.3 95.6
Nov. 2011 162.8 164.7 96.3
Dec. 2011 164.7 166.6 95.3
Jan. 2012 167.1 167.9 95.3
Feb. 2012 169.5 168.4 95.2
Mar. 2012 167.6 168.0 95.5
Apr. 2012 164.7 166.2 95.6
May. 2012 164.7 167.9 95.9
June. 2012 168.2 169.3 95.9
July. 2012 170.5 172.3 95.6
Aug. 2012 172.8 174.4 95.4
Sep. 2012 173.5 177.0 95.4
Oct. 2012 177.6 179.7 95.0
Nov. 2012 178.1 180.9 94.6
Dec. 2012 179.1 181.6 94.4
Jan. 2013 180.3 183.2 94.5
Feb. 2013 182.5 186.1 94.2
Mar. 2013 186.7 188.2 93.8
Apr. 2013 187.8 191.5 93.4
May. 2013 189.3 193.5 93.0
June. 2013 190.8 197.6 93.4
July. 2013 193.8 198.7 93.9
Aug. 2013 194.1 198.2 94.6
Sep. 2013 193.8 196.9 94.6
Oct. 2013 191.5 195.0 94.6
Nov. 2013 193.0 195.2 94.1
Dec. 2013 194.0 195.2 94.2
Jan. 2014 196.3 196.8 94.2
Feb. 2014 196.9 198.6 94.4
Mar. 2014 196.1 199.8 94.1
Apr. 2014 195.8 199.7 94.2
May. 2014 197.1 200.1 94.5
June. 2014 199.9 203.2 95.3
July. 2014 199.1 207.7 95.0
Aug. 2014 201.7 213.6 95.1
Sep. 2014 201.4 213.8 94.1
Oct. 2014 206.6 214.5 94.3
Nov. 2014 204.5 212.8 93.9
Dec. 2014 203.7 214.9 94.5
Jan. 2015 199.9 212.9 93.6
Feb. 2015 197.1 210.0 93.6
Mar. 2015 195.3 207.3 94.3
Apr. 2015 193.7 204.5 94.6
May. 2015 188.8 201.2 94.3
June. 2015 184.5 195.8 93.9
July. 2015 180.5 192.4 92.7
Aug. 2015 179.3 189.7 93.1
Sep. 2015 177.9 188.2 92.9
Oct. 2015 174.2 185.4 93.8
Nov. 2015 172.1 182.7 94.1
Dec. 2015 168.2 178.3 94.0
Jan. 2016 165.6 176.8 94.2
Feb. 2016 164.9 174.3 94.3
Mar. 2016 165.0 174.3 94.9
Apr. 2016 163.4 172.4 95.1
May. 2016 160.3 170.9 95.3
June. 2016 156.8 167.2 94.9
July. 2016 157.4 167.1 94.9
Aug. 2016 153.4 160.7 94.8
Sep. 2016 152.3 159.5 94.9
Oct. 2016 149.9 157.0 94.8
Nov. 2016 151.5 160.1 94.9
Dec. 2016 151.7 161.1 95.1
Jan. 2017 151.4 159.1 96.6
Feb. 2017 150.1 158.5 97.8
Mar. 2017 146.4 154.4 98.8
Apr. 2017 146.7 155.5 98.4
May. 2017 147.3 155.8 98.3
June. 2017 149.5 157.9 98.3
July. 2017 149.2 156.4 98.9
Aug. 2017 147.3 154.3 98.0
Sep. 2017 147.7 154.9 97.7
Oct. 2017 147.0 156.2 97.1
Nov. 2017 149.8 158.9 98.1
Dec. 2017 150.7 159.5 99.0
Jan. 2018 151.0 159.1 99.0
Feb. 2018 151.0 159.6 98.8
Mar. 2018 151.7 161.3 97.3
Apr. 2018 152.2 162.1 97.6
May. 2018 153.2 161.5 97.8
June. 2018 153.8 160.4 98.6
July. 2018 153.2 160.7 98.8
Aug. 2018 154.7 162.8 99.0
Sep. 2018 154.8 165.0 98.5
Oct. 2018 158.9 167.0 98.7
Nov. 2018 160.4 168.9 98.8
Dec. 2018 162.2 171.1 99.6
Jan. 2019 164.3 174.0 99.2
Feb. 2019 167.0 176.4 98.8
Mar. 2019 168.7 177.4 97.5
Apr. 2019 171.3 179.8 97.5
May. 2019 173.2 182.7 97.7
June. 2019 175.4 185.1 98.2
July. 2019 174.9 186.3 97.9
Aug. 2019 173.9 185.3 97.5
Sep. 2019 175.6 185.3 97.7
Oct. 2019 176.9 184.8 97.7
Nov. 2019 180.3 187.0 97.4
Dec. 2019 181.9 188.2 97.2

Monthly change: unchanged manufacturing output from November to December

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output was unchanged from November to December 2019. The industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products contributed the most to pull the overall development in a positive direction, while machinery and equipment contributed the most to dampen the overall development.  

Yearly change: increase in manufacturing output from 2018 to 2019

Norwegian manufacturing output saw an overall yearly increase of 2.7 per cent in 2019 compared with 2018. There was a clear growth in the first half of the year, before the growth levelled out in the second half. Building of ships, boats and oil platforms saw the strongest growth, with an increase of as much as 34 per cent. Both building of ships, and building of oil platforms experienced a clear growth. However, while the production development within the former levelled out during the year, the development within the latter continued to increase strongly throughout the year.

On the other hand, the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products contributed the most to curb the overall growth in 2019, with a decline of 3.1 per cent.

Nearly unchanged production development in the Euro area in November

Estimated figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, indicate that manufacturing output in the Euro area was almost unchanged from October to November 2019. In the same period, Norwegian manufacturing output saw a marginal decline of 0.4 per cent. Sweden, on the other hand, saw an increase of 1.8 per cent, while Denmark had a production decline of 5.2 per cent.

For more key figures about the European business sector, see Eurostat’s information page about European economic statistics.

Figure 3. Index of production for manufacturing. Euro area and Norway (2015=100). Seasonally adjusted

Euro area Norway
Jan. 2014 96.7 101.9
Feb. 2014 97.6 101.8
Mar. 2014 97.1 102.5
Apr. 2014 98.5 102.1
May. 2014 97.4 102.5
June. 2014 96.8 104.7
July. 2014 98.0 103.5
Aug. 2014 95.9 106.4
Sep. 2014 97.0 102.8
Oct. 2014 96.9 105.8
Nov. 2014 96.7 104.6
Dec. 2014 98.0 104.9
Jan. 2015 97.5 102.5
Feb. 2015 99.7 102.7
Mar. 2015 100.6 106.3
Apr. 2015 99.9 101.7
May. 2015 100.3 99.7
June. 2015 100.7 100.7
July. 2015 100.7 96.5
Aug. 2015 99.8 98.9
Sep. 2015 100.2 99.5
Oct. 2015 99.9 97.0
Nov. 2015 100.1 97.9
Dec. 2015 100.8 96.6
Jan. 2016 103.9 96.4
Feb. 2016 101.5 96.7
Mar. 2016 100.4 98.8
Apr. 2016 101.7 95.8
May. 2016 100.3 96.2
June. 2016 101.6 94.3
July. 2016 101.3 95.4
Aug. 2016 101.6 92.0
Sep. 2016 101.6 94.1
Oct. 2016 102.7 93.9
Nov. 2016 103.3 94.0
Dec. 2016 102.6 94.4
Jan. 2017 102.0 95.8
Feb. 2017 103.1 95.6
Mar. 2017 103.3 95.6
Apr. 2017 104.0 95.7
May. 2017 104.2 95.7
June. 2017 103.9 95.8
July. 2017 105.6 96.1
Aug. 2017 106.2 92.6
Sep. 2017 106.0 95.6
Oct. 2017 105.6 95.7
Nov. 2017 108.6 96.2
Dec. 2017 108.3 97.1
Jan. 2018 107.8 95.4
Feb. 2018 105.6 95.9
Mar. 2018 105.8 96.4
Apr. 2018 106.1 96.6
May. 2018 107.2 96.1
June. 2018 107.0 96.7
July. 2018 106.1 97.1
Aug. 2018 107.2 97.7
Sep. 2018 106.6 97.2
Oct. 2018 106.9 98.6
Nov. 2018 105.6 98.9
Dec. 2018 104.4 99.3
Jan. 2019 105.8 99.2
Feb. 2019 106.3 99.0
Mar. 2019 106.1 98.0
Apr. 2019 105.2 100.4
May. 2019 106.0 100.7
June. 2019 104.4 99.7
July. 2019 104.0 100.7
Aug. 2019 104.5 99.6
Sep. 2019 104.6 100.3
Oct. 2019 103.8 100.3
Nov. 2019 104.0 99.9

Three-month change: Extraction of oil and natural gas contributed to a clear increase in the overall production index

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the total production index (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply saw a strong increase of 5.3 per cent in the fourth quarter compared to the third quarter of 2019. Extraction of crude petroleum increased strongly by around 14 per cent, which can partly be explained by production from a new oil field that opened in this quarter. Extraction of natural gas also saw an increase of 7.4 per cent. For more details about oil and gas extraction in this quarter, see the press release from The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction, there was an output increase equivalent to 2.6 per cent in the fourth quarter, compared with the previous quarter. This growth is partly related to an investment increase in the Norwegian oil and gas sector. 

In the same period, mining and quarrying saw a decline of 4.5 per cent, and Norwegian electricity supply decreased by 4.1 per cent.

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 4. Production development. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Manufacturing Extraction, mining, manufacturing and elec. Extraction and related services
Jan. 2009 112.1 96.9 91.1
Feb. 2009 110.9 97.3 92.1
Mar. 2009 109.8 96.5 91.3
Apr. 2009 108.9 96.0 90.9
May. 2009 107.6 93.4 87.7
June. 2009 106.7 92.2 86.6
July. 2009 106.1 91.5 86.1
Aug. 2009 106.6 92.2 86.9
Sep. 2009 107.7 93.2 87.6
Oct. 2009 108.5 93.3 87.0
Nov. 2009 109.2 93.4 86.8
Dec. 2009 109.3 92.5 85.4
Jan. 2010 109.4 92.3 85.1
Feb. 2010 109.7 92.0 84.7
Mar. 2010 110.1 91.6 84.4
Apr. 2010 110.8 90.9 83.8
May. 2010 110.3 90.3 83.6
June. 2010 111.1 89.3 82.2
July. 2010 111.8 88.1 80.4
Aug. 2010 112.0 84.9 75.7
Sep. 2010 111.7 83.6 73.7
Oct. 2010 111.4 84.8 75.3
Nov. 2010 112.6 87.4 77.9
Dec. 2010 112.6 89.1 80.0
Jan. 2011 112.7 87.7 78.4
Feb. 2011 112.6 87.0 77.9
Mar. 2011 113.1 85.8 76.5
Apr. 2011 112.9 84.7 74.9
May. 2011 113.0 82.3 71.1
June. 2011 111.7 81.7 70.0
July. 2011 110.2 81.9 69.7
Aug. 2011 109.6 84.3 72.6
Sep. 2011 110.9 85.6 74.2
Oct. 2011 112.9 86.1 74.5
Nov. 2011 113.8 86.4 74.7
Dec. 2011 113.5 85.3 73.6
Jan. 2012 113.9 86.6 74.8
Feb. 2012 113.9 87.3 75.1
Mar. 2012 114.0 88.4 75.8
Apr. 2012 113.7 88.4 75.5
May. 2012 114.4 88.5 75.5
June. 2012 114.8 88.9 76.0
July. 2012 115.3 88.0 75.1
Aug. 2012 115.7 87.3 74.0
Sep. 2012 116.3 85.0 70.4
Oct. 2012 116.8 85.2 70.4
Nov. 2012 116.8 84.3 69.3
Dec. 2012 116.7 85.3 70.9
Jan. 2013 117.2 83.8 70.1
Feb. 2013 117.7 82.4 69.3
Mar. 2013 118.0 80.7 68.4
Apr. 2013 118.8 81.1 68.9
May. 2013 119.0 82.8 71.1
June. 2013 120.4 84.0 72.4
July. 2013 120.8 85.1 73.6
Aug. 2013 121.1 84.5 72.8
Sep. 2013 120.8 83.9 72.1
Oct. 2013 120.3 81.6 69.4
Nov. 2013 120.1 81.5 69.3
Dec. 2013 120.2 82.0 69.9
Jan. 2014 120.7 83.7 71.5
Feb. 2014 121.3 84.3 71.8
Mar. 2014 121.9 85.2 72.3
Apr. 2014 121.9 85.4 72.2
May. 2014 122.2 84.2 70.2
June. 2014 123.0 84.0 69.4
July. 2014 123.6 83.6 68.8
Aug. 2014 125.2 84.7 70.2
Sep. 2014 124.5 85.6 71.8
Oct. 2014 125.4 87.1 73.5
Nov. 2014 124.6 87.7 74.4
Dec. 2014 125.4 87.4 73.7
Jan. 2015 124.1 86.1 72.4
Feb. 2015 123.4 86.1 72.7
Mar. 2015 124.0 86.3 72.9
Apr. 2015 123.7 85.4 71.7
May. 2015 122.4 85.0 71.3
June. 2015 120.2 85.1 72.0
July. 2015 118.1 86.2 74.2
Aug. 2015 117.8 87.0 75.4
Sep. 2015 117.4 87.8 76.7
Oct. 2015 117.6 88.1 77.1
Nov. 2015 117.2 87.2 76.1
Dec. 2015 116.0 85.4 74.2
Jan. 2016 115.8 85.3 73.8
Feb. 2016 115.3 85.5 74.1
Mar. 2016 116.1 85.9 73.9
Apr. 2016 115.9 86.2 74.4
May. 2016 115.7 86.5 74.8
June. 2016 113.9 85.3 73.9
July. 2016 113.7 84.9 73.5
Aug. 2016 112.1 83.2 71.7
Sep. 2016 112.0 81.9 70.0
Oct. 2016 111.4 82.3 70.9
Nov. 2016 112.2 83.9 72.9
Dec. 2016 112.4 85.8 75.4
Jan. 2017 113.1 85.7 74.3
Feb. 2017 113.8 85.9 73.6
Mar. 2017 114.2 87.0 74.2
Apr. 2017 114.2 87.3 74.6
May. 2017 114.2 87.3 74.4
June. 2017 114.3 87.2 73.9
July. 2017 114.4 86.9 73.4
Aug. 2017 113.2 86.9 73.9
Sep. 2017 113.1 87.4 74.7
Oct. 2017 113.0 86.8 73.9
Nov. 2017 114.4 86.0 72.4
Dec. 2017 115.0 84.9 70.4
Jan. 2018 114.9 85.8 70.8
Feb. 2018 114.8 87.0 71.0
Mar. 2018 114.5 87.9 71.2
Apr. 2018 114.9 87.5 70.5
May. 2018 115.0 86.5 69.6
June. 2018 115.1 86.9 71.0
July. 2018 115.3 87.2 71.5
Aug. 2018 116.0 88.5 73.1
Sep. 2018 116.2 88.2 72.3
Oct. 2018 116.8 88.7 72.1
Nov. 2018 117.3 87.9 70.5
Dec. 2018 118.1 87.3 69.1
Jan. 2019 118.3 85.9 68.3
Feb. 2019 118.4 84.9 67.8
Mar. 2019 117.8 83.5 67.0
Apr. 2019 118.3 82.8 65.9
May. 2019 119.0 82.7 65.5
June. 2019 119.8 82.4 64.6
July. 2019 119.9 82.2 64.0
Aug. 2019 119.4 81.4 62.7
Sep. 2019 119.6 81.3 62.3
Oct. 2019 119.4 81.8 63.2
Nov. 2019 119.5 83.6 65.9
Dec. 2019 119.4 85.6 69.4

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