Investment growth in 2018 and 2019

The investment survey conducted in November 2018 suggest that total investments within oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply in 2018 will amount to NOK 221.5 billion. This is 8.0 per cent higher than the corresponding figure for 2017, given in November last year. The increase is mainly due to high investments in electricity supply, but oil and gas and manufacturing also contribute positively.

Companies’ latest investment estimates for 2019 are 18 per cent higher compared to the same figure for 2018 given in November last year. Measured in current value, the estimate for total investments is expected to amount to NOK 241 billion. The total growth is mainly driven by higher estimates within the oil and gas industry. For more detail about investments within the oil and gas industry, please see the following article. In addition, there is also expected to be a significant increase in manufacturing investments next year.

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, quarterly final investment showed the following development from the second to the third quarter of 2018:

• Oil and gas: 4.7 %
• Manufacturing: 1.9 %
• Electricity supply: 11 %

Strong investment growth in electricity supply for 2018, flat development in 2019

The latest estimates for 2018 show that total investments in electricity supply are expected to amount to NOK 41.1 billion. This is 26 per cent higher than the corresponding figure for 2017. The growth can be related to a high investment level in both the production and the distribution sector. The growth in the production sector is due to high investments in wind farm development. The growth within the distribution sector can be linked to the installation of New power meters (AMS) and power grid Upgrades.

The newest estimates for electricity supply in 2019 are 1.8 per cent higher than the projections for 2018, given in the fourth quarter last year. The total investments are now expected to amount to NOK 38.4 billion. The production sector is expected to increase by 20 per cent due to the further development of wind farms. The total investment increase in electricity supply is however dampened by 12 per cent lower investments in the distribution sector. This decline is linked to the completion of the installation of the new AMS meters in 2018.

Increase in manufacturing in 2018, further growth in 2019

Manufacturing investments for 2018 are now estimated at NOK 23.7 billion; 12 per cent higher than the corresponding figures for 2017 given in the fourth quarter last year. The growth is particularly due to a high investment level in the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products and in food products. In addition, higher investments within machinery and equipment, wood and wood products and rubber, plastic and mineral products contribute positively. The overall increase in 2018 is dampened by a lower investment level within basic metals. The decline is related to the fact that some major investment projects, which contributed to growth in 2017, are either completed or in a final phase.

The companies’ newest forecast for 2019 indicates a significant investment increase for the next year. The increase is almost 28 per cent higher than the corresponding figure for 2018. The growth is mainly due to high investments in the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products, and in basic metals. The investment level within these two industries is expected to rise by 38 and 31 per cent respectively. In addition, some major projects within paper and paper products also contribute positively to the overall increase in manufacturing for the next year.

From increase in mining and quarrying in 2018 to decrease in 2019

Measured in current value, the estimates for investments in mining and quarrying in 2018 are expected to amount to almost NOK 1.3 billion. This represents a growth of 141 per cent compared to the year before. Preliminary estimates suggest a decrease in 2019 compared to the corresponding figure for 2018.