Manufacturing turnover fell sharply in the second quarter

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Seasonally-adjusted figures show that the total turnover in Norwegian manufacturing decreased by 7.5 per cent from the first to the second quarter of 2020. On a monthly basis however, from May to June 2020, the manufacturing turnover increased by 2.5 per cent.

Written by: Robert Skotvold

The index value for turnover in manufacturing was 148.9 (2005=100) in the second quarter of 2020 compared to 160.9 in the first quarter of 2020 according to seasonally-adjusted figures.

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 1. Index of turnover for manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Index of turnover for manufacturing
Jan. 2010 137.1
Feb. 2010 136
Mar. 2010 135.1
Apr. 2010 135.5
May 2010 136.3
June 2010 137.5
July 2010 138.2
Aug. 2010 136.8
Sep. 2010 134.5
Okt. 2010 134.7
Nov. 2010 137.3
Dec. 2010 138.3
Jan. 2011 137.4
Feb. 2011 136.6
Mar. 2011 135.4
Apr. 2011 136.7
May 2011 136.4
June 2011 137.9
July 2011 136.7
Aug. 2011 136.2
Sep. 2011 136.1
Okt. 2011 137.1
Nov. 2011 139.1
Dec. 2011 141.6
Jan. 2012 143.4
Feb. 2012 144
Mar. 2012 143.8
Apr. 2012 142.7
May 2012 143.2
June 2012 142.8
July 2012 143.8
Aug. 2012 143.6
Sep. 2012 144.9
Okt. 2012 145
Nov. 2012 145.8
Dec. 2012 145.4
Jan. 2013 146.6
Feb. 2013 145.5
Mar. 2013 146.7
Apr. 2013 146
May 2013 146.2
June 2013 147.5
July 2013 150.9
Aug. 2013 153.6
Sep. 2013 153.9
Okt. 2013 152.1
Nov. 2013 151.7
Dec. 2013 151.2
Jan. 2014 150.2
Feb. 2014 151
Mar. 2014 150
Apr. 2014 151.7
May 2014 150.5
June 2014 149.7
July 2014 148.8
Aug. 2014 151.3
Sep. 2014 151.4
Okt. 2014 151.7
Nov. 2014 150.6
Dec. 2014 151.9
Jan. 2015 149.9
Feb. 2015 149.8
Mar. 2015 151
Apr. 2015 153.3
May 2015 152.4
June 2015 150.8
July 2015 149.3
Aug. 2015 148.8
Sep. 2015 147.9
Okt. 2015 147.6
Nov. 2015 144.7
Dec. 2015 143.2
Jan. 2016 141.1
Feb. 2016 139.9
Mar. 2016 139
Apr. 2016 138.4
May 2016 139.8
June 2016 139.6
July 2016 139.5
Aug. 2016 137.5
Sep. 2016 136.5
Okt. 2016 134.9
Nov. 2016 134.2
Dec. 2016 133.1
Jan. 2017 135.2
Feb. 2017 137.5
Mar. 2017 140.2
Apr. 2017 140.4
May 2017 138.8
June 2017 137.7
July 2017 137.9
Aug. 2017 139.9
Sep. 2017 140.8
Okt. 2017 141.5
Nov. 2017 142.3
Dec. 2017 144.7
Jan. 2018 145.1
Feb. 2018 145.4
Mar. 2018 145.1
Apr. 2018 146.4
May 2018 149.2
June 2018 151.9
July 2018 153.6
Aug. 2018 153.5
Sep. 2018 154.1
Okt. 2018 155.3
Nov. 2018 156.2
Dec. 2018 154.8
Jan. 2019 155.6
Feb. 2019 156.2
Mar. 2019 157.7
Apr. 2019 158.4
May 2019 158.8
June 2019 160.1
July 2019 159.4
Aug. 2019 159.9
Sep. 2019 160.7
Okt. 2019 162
Nov. 2019 162.6
Dec. 2019 162.7
Jan. 2020 162
Feb. 2020 160.6
Mar. 2020 160.9
Apr. 2020 156.1
May 2020 152.7
June 2020 148.9

Three-month change: refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals decreases manufacturing turnover

Seasonally-adjusted figures show that the turnover in Norwegian manufacturing decreased by 7.5 per cent from the first to the second quarter of 2020. This is the biggest decline in a quarter measured in this statistics which goes back to 1998.

The industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products contributed the most to the negative development with its decline of 22 per cent in the period. Building of ships and oil platforms also contributed negative with a reduction of 21 per cent in the period.

Monthly change: turnover in manufacturing up in the last month of the quarter

Total Norwegian manufacturing turnover increased by 2.5 per cent from May to June 2020, according to seasonally-adjusted figures. The domestic market contributed to the increase while the export market was somewhat down.

Refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals contributed the most to the increase from May to June, with an increase of 21 per cent. After a sharp fall in prices in April and May the prices rose on refined petroleum products and was a contributing factor to the increased turnover in this industry grouping. Fabricated metal products also contributed to the positive development.

Basic metals contributed the most to curbing the positive development in the manufacturing turnover with a decrease of 9 per cent. Repair, installation of machinery and computer and electrical equipment also contributed negative.

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 2. Selected industries. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹

Food, beverages and tobacco Refined petro. chemicals, pharmac. Fabricated metal products Ships, boats and oil platforms Machinery and equipment
Jan. 2014 168.1 152.4 172.5 129.6 274.0
Feb. 2014 168.4 153.1 171.8 131.2 264.5
Mar. 2014 166.2 149.3 173.3 159.0 258.6
Apr. 2014 170.5 147.5 172.2 164.8 265.9
May 2014 171.7 144.5 169.3 154.6 262.1
June 2014 172.7 142.5 168.0 150.5 266.5
July 2014 170.8 140.3 171.5 143.8 274.8
Aug. 2014 171.9 136.7 172.3 151.7 307.0
Sep. 2014 173.1 134.3 172.8 151.0 308.3
Okt. 2014 173.3 132.1 170.0 161.5 305.9
Nov. 2014 174.2 135.1 168.9 157.7 289.6
Dec. 2014 175.9 133.6 171.5 155.5 295.8
Jan. 2015 177.9 127.9 160.0 138.8 304.0
Feb. 2015 177.6 123.3 157.7 141.8 306.8
Mar. 2015 177.1 127.6 156.5 139.5 318.3
Apr. 2015 178.0 131.0 164.6 154.7 307.6
May 2015 178.5 130.9 166.7 148.5 302.1
June 2015 179.1 132.1 162.8 143.6 278.9
July 2015 179.0 132.9 158.4 137.5 271.5
Aug. 2015 180.3 129.8 159.7 134.4 260.9
Sep. 2015 180.0 131.7 154.3 133.5 257.5
Okt. 2015 181.5 134.2 153.9 121.4 256.8
Nov. 2015 183.1 137.3 145.5 109.1 242.1
Dec. 2015 185.5 131.2 150.1 113.0 235.4
Jan. 2016 186.7 123.4 150.0 120.0 221.1
Feb. 2016 190.4 116.1 150.5 120.7 212.4
Mar. 2016 193.0 111.8 145.0 111.8 205.5
Apr. 2016 194.1 110.4 142.7 106.1 198.1
May 2016 192.7 113.5 140.3 114.2 190.0
June 2016 193.8 115.0 143.4 116.1 168.1
July 2016 194.0 115.1 153.5 113.9 165.9
Aug. 2016 193.7 113.7 158.4 102.9 161.6
Sep. 2016 193.6 106.1 159.7 101.4 172.0
Okt. 2016 194.9 101.3 148.2 100.4 162.5
Nov. 2016 196.2 96.3 144.7 104.0 148.4
Dec. 2016 196.0 99.9 140.6 99.6 130.9
Jan.2017 196.4 116.5 141.6 97.5 125.3
Feb. 2017 197.4 132.5 141.3 91.2 130.2
Mar. 2017 198.5 141.7 148.7 95.1 128.4
Apr. 2017 196.2 137.7 146.3 95.7 127.6
May 2017 190.1 132.6 143.6 92.0 121.6
June 2017 185.6 131.3 143.4 85.8 123.1
July 2017 187.4 128.7 143.0 93.7 114.1
Aug. 2017 192.0 131.6 139.7 102.9 117.7
Sep. 2017 195.2 133.4 137.1 104.1 118.5
Okt. 2017 194.9 136.4 145.0 95.3 125.9
Nov. 2017 195.5 138.8 143.6 92.4 127.3
Dec. 2017 198.3 146.0 142.9 94.9 139.4
Jan. 2018 195.5 150.6 138.9 95.2 139.5
Feb. 2018 194.8 150.6 146.0 96.7 140.7
Mar. 2018 192.2 146.5 143.1 95.5 137.4
Apr. 2018 197.6 143.6 148.4 99.0 141.0
May 2018 200.8 146.4 155.2 104.8 150.1
June 2018 201.5 150.9 159.8 111.6 151.1
July 2018 201.9 157.2 154.7 109.5 154.4
Aug. 2018 201.5 156.0 159.4 101.7 153.0
Sep. 2018 202.4 165.5 162.3 101.9 150.7
Okt. 2018 202.1 168.1 163.4 110.5 150.9
Nov. 2018 201.6 168.8 157.1 120.1 159.7
Dec. 2018 202.4 157.0 156.2 120.4 166.4
Jan. 2019 204.1 152.5 162.6 119.1 172.8
Feb. 2019 203.9 151.0 168.3 129.2 173.0
Mar. 2019 203.2 151.4 173.2 134.9 171.0
Apr. 2019 205.3 153.4 176.3 131.3 173.9
May 2019 206.7 154.5 176.2 115.3 171.2
June 2019 209.8 150.6 177.5 120.0 180.3
July 2019 206.4 147.3 179.5 126.4 181.2
Aug. 2019 207.4 144.6 179.6 137.4 181.7
Sep. 2019 205.5 148.1 179.1 147.2 183.6
Okt. 2019 207.3 146.7 185.3 148.3 185.3
Nov. 2019 207.4 149.7 193.8 147.3 188.5
Dec. 2019 208.3 150.6 198.8 144.5 188.0
Jan. 2020 209.2 150.5 193.0 144.9 190.6
Feb. 2020 211.3 147.4 185.6 142.4 183.5
Mar. 2020 214.5 138.1 183.8 146.0 177.3
Apr. 2020 210.9 124.6 173.5 139.2 166.5
May 2020 211.0 109.7 168.4 136.3 164.1
June 2020 210.7 107.9 172.1 116.0 159.2

Monthly change: increase in manufacturing turnover in the euro area in May 2020

Manufacturing turnover in the euro area increased by 14 percent from April to May 2020, according to seasonally-adjusted figures. This increase comes after a marked fall from March to April. The turnover in manufacturing in the euro area is still lower than before the Corona-crisis occurred. Total Norwegian manufacturing turnover increased by 1.4 percent in the same period. In the other Scandinavian countries, the turnover in Denmark increased by 1.8 and was unchanged in Sweden, according to Eurostat.

The seasonal adjustment routine has been adjusted during the Corona-crisis

Thursday 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. Several manufacturing establishment have been affected by these measures, and this has led to a change in the activity pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (from March), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying March and the following months as outliers.

This implies that normal trend figures will not be calculated, and instead the trend will follow the seasonal adjusted figures. One important exception is the last observation, where the trend will be an extrapolated figure where the last observation is not included. The trend figures from, and including, March 2020 will therefore be difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.

Response rate for June

The data collection for May has been conducted in the period from 30th of June to 5th of August 2020. The response rate for June 2020 is 91 per cent, while the corresponding rate for the same period last year was 97 per cent.

On the effect of Easter

It is important to be aware that the uncertainty for the calendar-adjusted and seasonally-adjusted indices for March and April is greater than normal due to the changed placing of Easter. This effect will also affect the seasonally-adjusted figures for the 1st and 2nd quarters. This is accounted for when adjusting for seasonal variations. However, it can still be difficult to adjust for all impacts.

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