Manufacturing turnover increases further

Published:

Seasonally-adjusted figures show that the total turnover in Norwegian manufacturing increased by 3.5 per cent in the period November 2020 to January 2021 compared with the previous three-month period. On a monthly basis, from December 2020 to January 2021 the manufacturing turnover increased as much as 5.5 per cent.

Written by: Robert Skotvold

The index value for turnover in manufacturing was 158.3 (2005=100) in the period November 2020 to January 2021 compared to 153.0 in the previous three-month period, seasonally-adjusted figures. The manufacturing turnover is increasing after the sharp fall associated with the corona pandemic in the first half of 2020. Nevertheless, the level in the three-month period is still below the peak at the end of 2019.

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 1. Index of turnover for manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Index of turnover for manufacturing
Jan. 2011 137.4
Feb. 2011 136.6
March 2011 135.4
April 2011 136.7
May 2011 136.4
June 2011 137.9
July 2011 136.7
Aug. 2011 136.2
Sep. 2011 136.1
Oct. 2011 137.1
Nov. 2011 139.1
Dec. 2011 141.6
Jan. 2012 143.4
Feb. 2012 144
March 2012 143.8
April 2012 142.7
May 2012 143.2
June 2012 142.8
July 2012 143.8
Aug. 2012 143.6
Sep. 2012 144.9
Oct. 2012 145
Nov. 2012 145.8
Dec. 2012 145.4
Jan. 2013 146.6
Feb. 2013 145.5
March 2013 146.7
April 2013 146
May 2013 146.2
June 2013 147.5
July 2013 150.9
Aug. 2013 153.6
Sep. 2013 153.9
Oct. 2013 152.1
Nov. 2013 151.7
Dec. 2013 151.2
Jan. 2014 150.2
Feb. 2014 151
March 2014 150
April 2014 151.7
May 2014 150.5
June 2014 149.7
July 2014 148.8
Aug. 2014 151.3
Sep. 2014 151.4
Oct. 2014 151.7
Nov. 2014 150.6
Dec. 2014 151.9
Jan. 2015 149.9
Feb. 2015 149.8
March 2015 151
April 2015 153.3
May 2015 152.4
June 2015 150.8
July 2015 149.3
Aug. 2015 148.8
Sep. 2015 147.9
Oct. 2015 147.6
Nov. 2015 144.7
Dec. 2015 143.2
Jan. 2016 141.1
Feb. 2016 139.9
March 2016 139
April 2016 138.4
May 2016 139.8
June 2016 139.6
July 2016 139.5
Aug. 2016 137.5
Sep. 2016 136.5
Oct. 2016 134.9
Nov. 2016 134.2
Dec. 2016 133.1
Jan. 2017 135.2
Feb. 2017 137.5
March 2017 140.2
April 2017 140.4
May 2017 138.8
June 2017 137.7
July 2017 137.9
Aug. 2017 139.9
Sep. 2017 140.8
Oct. 2017 141.5
Nov. 2017 142.3
Dec. 2017 144.7
Jan. 2018 145.1
Feb. 2018 145.4
March 2018 145.1
April 2018 146.4
May 2018 149.2
June 2018 151.9
July 2018 153.6
Aug. 2018 153.5
Sep. 2018 154.1
Oct. 2018 155.3
Nov. 2018 156.2
Dec. 2018 154.8
Jan. 2019 155.6
Feb. 2019 156
March 2019 157.5
April 2019 158.3
May 2019 158.9
June 2019 160.1
July 2019 159.4
Aug. 2019 159.9
Sep. 2019 160.7
Oct. 2019 161.9
Nov. 2019 162.6
Dec. 2019 162.8
Jan. 2020 162.1
Feb. 2020 160.5
March 2020 160.7
April 2020 155.9
May 2020 152.6
June 2020 148.8
July 2020 150.4
Aug. 2020 152
Sep. 2020 151.8
Oct. 2020 153
Nov. 2020 154.7
Dec. 2020 155.5
Jan. 2021 158.3

Three-month change: refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals increases manufacturing turnover

Seasonally-adjusted figures show that the turnover in Norwegian manufacturing increased by 3.5 per cent in the period November 2020 to January 2021 compared to the previous three months period.

The industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products contributed the most to the positive development in manufacturing turnover with its increase of as much as 14 per cent in the period. The growth in turnover in this industry grouping was helped by price growth for refined petroleum products.

Basic metals and fabricated metal products also contributed to the increase in manufacturing turnover.

Food products and machinery and equipment contributed to curbing the increase in manufacturing turnover with a decline of 1.3 and 6.3 per cent respectively,

Monthly change: increased turnover in January 2021

Total Norwegian manufacturing turnover increased by as much as 5.5 per cent from December 2020 to January 2021, according to seasonally-adjusted figures. This increase comes after a decrease of 2.5 per cent in the previous month. The domestic market contributed to the overall decrease while the export market showed an increase.

Food products and building of ships and oil platforms contributed the most to the increase in manufacturing turnover.

Chemicals contributed the most to curbing the increase in manufacturing turnover with its growth of 10 per cent.

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 2. Selected industries. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹

Food, beverages and tobacco Refined petro. chemicals, pharmac. Fabricated metal products Ships, boats and oil platforms Machinery and equipment
Jan. 2015 177.9 127.9 160.0 134.6 304.0
Feb. 2015 177.6 123.3 157.7 135.6 306.8
March 2015 177.1 127.6 156.5 139.5 318.3
April 2015 178.0 131.0 164.6 154.7 307.6
May 2015 178.5 130.9 166.7 148.5 302.1
June 2015 179.1 132.1 162.8 143.6 278.9
July 2015 179.0 132.9 158.4 137.5 271.5
Aug. 2015 180.3 129.8 159.7 134.4 260.9
Sep. 2015 180.0 131.7 154.3 133.5 257.5
Oct. 2015 181.5 134.2 153.9 121.4 256.8
Nov. 2015 183.1 137.3 145.5 109.1 242.1
Dec. 2015 185.5 131.2 150.1 113.0 235.4
Jan. 2016 186.7 123.4 150.0 120.0 221.1
Feb. 2016 190.4 116.1 150.5 120.7 212.4
March 2016 193.0 111.8 145.0 111.8 205.5
April 2016 194.1 110.4 142.7 106.1 198.1
May 2016 192.7 113.5 140.3 114.2 190.0
June 2016 193.8 115.0 143.4 116.1 168.1
July 2016 194.0 115.1 153.5 113.9 165.9
Aug. 2016 193.7 113.7 158.4 102.9 161.6
Sep. 2016 193.6 106.1 159.7 101.4 172.0
Oct. 2016 194.9 101.3 148.2 100.4 162.5
Nov. 2016 196.2 96.3 144.7 104.0 148.4
Dec. 2016 196.0 99.9 140.6 99.6 130.9
Jan. 2017 196.4 116.5 141.6 97.5 125.3
Feb. 2017 197.4 132.5 141.3 91.2 130.2
March 2017 198.5 141.7 148.7 95.1 128.4
April 2017 196.2 137.7 146.3 95.7 127.6
May 2017 190.1 132.6 143.6 92.0 121.6
June 2017 185.6 131.3 143.4 85.8 123.1
July 2017 187.4 128.7 143.0 93.7 114.1
Aug. 2017 192.0 131.6 139.7 102.9 117.7
Sep. 2017 195.2 133.4 137.1 104.1 118.5
Oct. 2017 194.9 136.4 145.0 95.3 125.9
Nov. 2017 195.5 138.8 143.6 92.4 127.3
Dec. 2017 198.3 146.0 142.9 94.9 139.4
Jan.2018 195.5 150.6 138.9 95.2 139.5
Feb. 2018 194.8 150.6 146.0 96.7 140.7
March 2018 192.2 146.5 143.1 95.5 137.4
April 2018 197.6 143.6 148.4 99.0 141.0
May 2018 200.8 146.4 155.2 104.8 150.1
June 2018 201.5 150.9 159.8 111.6 151.1
July 2018 201.9 157.2 154.7 109.5 154.4
Aug. 2018 201.5 156.0 159.4 101.7 153.0
Sep. 2018 202.4 165.5 162.3 101.9 150.7
Oct. 2018 202.1 168.1 163.4 110.5 150.9
Nov. 2018 201.6 168.8 157.1 120.1 159.7
Dec. 2018 202.4 157.0 156.2 120.4 166.4
Jan. 2019 204.1 152.6 162.5 119.1 172.8
Feb. 2019 203.7 151.0 168.4 129.5 171.9
March 2019 202.9 151.3 173.5 135.2 169.6
April 2019 204.9 153.4 176.7 131.6 172.7
May 2019 206.6 154.8 176.7 114.9 171.4
June 2019 209.9 150.4 177.9 119.9 181.1
July 2019 206.6 146.9 179.2 125.9 181.8
Aug. 2019 207.7 144.2 178.3 137.3 182.3
Sep. 2019 205.7 148.2 178.0 146.5 184.0
Oct. 2019 207.5 146.5 184.8 148.3 185.7
Nov. 2019 207.6 149.3 194.3 147.2 188.7
Dec. 2019 208.4 150.7 199.0 145.1 188.1
Jan. 2020 209.2 150.9 193.0 145.2 190.6
Feb. 2020 211.0 148.3 185.4 143.0 182.2
March 2020 214.1 138.7 183.9 146.3 175.7
April 2020 210.4 125.2 173.9 139.6 165.3
May 2020 210.3 109.9 168.7 136.0 164.4
June 2020 210.4 107.5 172.6 116.0 159.8
July 2020 217.9 110.8 179.0 120.6 154.0
Aug. 2020 219.8 114.1 188.0 123.7 150.7
Sep. 2020 219.6 114.6 177.4 125.0 146.4
Oct. 2020 218.1 113.4 172.0 124.6 151.1
Nov. 2020 216.6 117.4 170.3 130.3 150.8
Dec. 2020 214.0 122.7 184.3 127.3 146.7
Jan. 2021 213.5 129.2 203.7 127.7 141.6

Monthly change: small increase in manufacturing turnover in the euro area in December 2020

Manufacturing turnover in the euro area increased by 0.5 percent from November to December 2020, according to seasonally-adjusted figures. Manufacturing turnover has increased moderate over a period of several months after the marked decline which was registered in March and April after strict infection control measures were implemented in Europe. Total Norwegian manufacturing turnover decreased by 2.5 percent in the same period. In the other Scandinavian countries, the turnover in Denmark and Sweden was up by 7.1 and 0.3 per cent respectively, according to Eurostat.

The seasonal adjustment routine has been adjusted during the Corona-crisis

Thursday 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. Several manufacturing establishments have been affected by these measures, and this has led to a change in the activity pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (from March), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying March and the following months as outliers.

This implies that normal trend figures will not be calculated, and instead the trend will follow the seasonal adjusted figures. One important exception is the last observation, where the trend will be an extrapolated figure where the last observation is not included. The trend figures from, and including, March 2020 will therefore be difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.

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