Moderate decline in total investments for 2017

The latest estimates for 2017 show that total investments are expected to amount to NOK 212 billion, according to new figures from the statistics Investments in oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and electricity supply. This is 2.7 per cent lower than the corresponding figure for 2016, given in the 3rd quarter of 2016. The decline is mainly due to a clear decrease within oil and gas. The overall decline is, however, partly offset by a substantial investment growth in electricity supply.

New figures for 2018 suggest that total investments will amount to NOK 194.3 billion; 2.5 per cent lower than the corresponding figure for 2017. The fall is driven by an expected decline within oil and gas. For more details about investments within the oil and gas industry, please see the following article. Positive investment forecasts for both manufacturing and electricity supply contribute partly to dampen the overall investment decline in 2018.

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, quarterly final investments had following development from the 1st to 2nd quarter of 2017:

• Oil and gas: 0.6 per cent
• Manufacturing: -11 per cent
• Electricity supply: -6 per cent

Strong investment growth in electricity supply in 2017, positive forecasts also for 2018

New estimates for 2017 show that total investments within electricity supply are expected to amount to NOK 34 billion; 25 per cent higher than the corresponding figure for 2016. The substantial growth is due to a high investment level in both the distribution and the production sector. The increase in the distribution sector is related to power grid upgrades, as well as installation of new automatic electricity meters (AMR). The installation of the new meters carries out in the period 2016-2018, while a large part of these investments will be finalized during 2017. For the production sector, the increase is attributed to the development of several new wind farms. Implementation of new depreciation rules combined with the fact that the application deadline for electricity certifications is approaching, may explain this development.

Preliminary estimates for 2018 indicate a further investment growth within electricity supply. The estimate for 2018 is 12 per cent higher than the corresponding figure for 2017. The largest contribution to the growth comes from a high level of investments within production of electricity, but investments in transmission and distribution of electricity are also expected to increase in 2018.

Minor decrease in manufacturing investments in 2017

Manufacturing investments for 2017 are now estimated at NOK 21.7 billion- measured in current value. The estimate is 2.6 per cent lower than the corresponding figure for 2016. The overall investment decline in manufacturing is mainly due to a decrease within the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products. In addition, lower investments in basic metals also contribute negatively. The decline in these industries is partly related to the fact that some major investment projects, which contributed to growth in 2016, have now been completed. On the other hand, the overall decline in 2017 is somewhat dampened by high investments in rubber, plastic and mineral products, and in food products. Within food products, the investment growth can be related particularly to processing and preserving of fish.

¹ The contribution by industry is calculated by multiplying the percentage change of the industry with the industry's share of manufacturing.

Significant growth in export-related manufacturing in 2018

The latest estimates for 2018 indicate a substantial increase in manufacturing investments; 11 per cent higher compared with the corresponding figure for 2017. The expected growth in 2018 is due to a high level of investments in the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals as well as in food products. The investment level within these two industries is expected to rise by 40 and 27 per cent respectively. As in 2017, the growth in food products is related to a high investment level within processing and preserving of fish. On the other hand, the overall increase in 2018 is dampened by a lower investment level within basic metals. However, early estimates for next year can be somewhat uncertain and should be interpreted with caution.

¹ The contribution by industry is calculated by multiplying the percentage change of the industry with the industry's share of manufacturing.

Clear fall in mining and quarrying in 2017, strong growth in 2018

Measured in current value, the estimates for investments in mining and quarrying in 2017 are expected to amount to NOK 584 million. This represents a clear decline of 15 per cent compared to the year before. The estimates for 2018 suggest a strong rise of 21 per cent.