Reduced manufacturing turnover in the first quarter

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Seasonally-adjusted figures show that the total turnover in Norwegian manufacturing decreased by 1.0 per cent in the first quarter of 2020 compared with the last quarter of 2019. A 2.8 per cent increase in manufacturing turnover was recorded from February to March 2020.

Written by: Robert Skotvold

The index value for turnover in manufacturing was 160.9 (2005=100) in the first quarter of 2020 compared to 162.6 in the previous quarter, according to seasonally-adjusted figures. 

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 1. Index of turnover for manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Index of turnover for manufacturing
Jan. 2010 137.1
Feb. 2010 136
March 2010 135.1
April 2010 135.5
May 2010 136.3
June 2010 137.5
July 2010 138.2
Aug. 2010 136.8
Sep. 2010 134.5
Oct. 2010 134.7
Nov. 2010 137.3
Dec. 2010 138.3
Jan. 2011 137.4
Feb. 2011 136.6
March 2011 135.4
April 2011 136.7
May 2011 136.4
June 2011 137.9
July 2011 136.7
Aug. 2011 136.2
Sep. 2011 136.1
Oct. 2011 137.1
Nov. 2011 139.1
Dec. 2011 141.6
Jan. 2012 143.4
Feb. 2012 144
March 2012 143.8
April 2012 142.7
May 2012 143.2
June 2012 142.8
July 2012 143.8
Aug. 2012 143.6
Sep. 2012 144.9
Oct. 2012 145
Nov. 2012 145.8
Dec. 2012 145.4
Jan. 2013 146.6
Feb. 2013 145.5
March 2013 146.7
April 2013 146
May 2013 146.2
June 2013 147.5
July 2013 150.9
Aug. 2013 153.6
Sep. 2013 153.9
Oct. 2013 152.1
Nov. 2013 151.7
Dec. 2013 151.2
Jan. 2014 150.2
Feb. 2014 151
March 2014 150
April 2014 151.7
May 2014 150.5
June 2014 149.7
July 2014 148.8
Aug. 2014 151.3
Sep. 2014 151.4
Oct. 2014 151.7
Nov. 2014 150.6
Dec. 2014 151.9
Jan. 2015 149.9
Feb. 2015 149.8
March 2015 151
April 2015 153.3
May 2015 152.4
June 2015 150.8
July 2015 149.3
Aug. 2015 148.8
Sep. 2015 147.9
Oct. 2015 147.6
Nov. 2015 144.7
Dec. 2015 143.2
Jan. 2016 141.1
Feb. 2016 139.9
March 2016 139
April 2016 138.4
May 2016 139.8
June 2016 139.6
July 2016 139.5
Aug. 2016 137.5
Sep. 2016 136.5
Oct. 2016 134.9
Nov. 2016 134.2
Dec. 2016 133.1
Jan. 2017 135.2
Feb. 2017 137.5
March 2017 140.2
April 2017 140.4
May 2017 138.8
June 2017 137.7
July 2017 137.9
Aug. 2017 139.9
Sep. 2017 140.8
Oct. 2017 141.5
Nov. 2017 142.3
Dec. 2017 144.7
Jan. 2018 145.1
Feb. 2018 145.4
March 2018 145.1
April 2018 146.4
May 2018 149.2
June 2018 151.9
July 2018 153.6
Aug. 2018 153.5
Sep. 2018 154.1
Oct. 2018 155.3
Nov. 2018 156.2
Dec. 2018 154.8
Jan. 2019 155.6
Feb. 2019 156.2
March 2019 157.7
April 2019 158.5
May 2019 158.8
June 2019 160.1
July 2019 159.4
Aug. 2019 159.9
Sep. 2019 160.6
Oct. 2019 161.9
Nov. 2019 162.5
Dec. 2019 162.6
Jan. 2020 161.9
Feb. 2020 160.6
March 2020 160.9

Three-month change: reduced turnover in refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals

Seasonally-adjusted figures show that the turnover in Norwegian manufacturing decreased by 1.0 per cent in the first quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.

The industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products contributed the most in negative direction with its decline of 8.1 per cent in the period. Fabricated metal products and machinery and equipment also contributed to the negative development with a reduced turnover in the first quarter of 2020.

Food products contributed the most to curbing the negative development in the manufacturing turnover in the period.

1 ¹ The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 2. Selected industries. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹

Food, beverages and tobacco Refined petro. chemicals, pharmac. Fabricated metal products Ships, boats and oil platforms Machinery and equipment
Jan. 2014 168.1 152.4 172.5 129.6 274.0
Feb. 2014 168.4 153.1 171.8 131.2 264.5
March 2014 166.2 149.3 173.3 159.0 258.6
April 2014 170.5 147.5 172.2 164.8 265.9
May 2014 171.7 144.5 169.3 154.6 262.1
June 2014 172.7 142.5 168.0 150.5 266.5
July 2014 170.8 140.3 171.5 143.8 274.8
Aug. 2014 171.9 136.7 172.3 151.7 307.0
Sep. 2014 173.1 134.3 172.8 151.0 308.3
Oct. 2014 173.3 132.1 170.0 161.5 305.9
Nov. 2014 174.2 135.1 168.9 157.7 289.6
Dec. 2014 175.9 133.6 171.5 155.5 295.8
Jan. 2015 177.9 127.9 160.0 138.8 304.0
Feb. 2015 177.6 123.3 157.7 141.8 306.8
March 2015 177.1 127.6 156.5 139.5 318.3
April 2015 178.0 131.0 164.6 154.7 307.6
May 2015 178.5 130.9 166.7 148.5 302.1
June 2015 179.1 132.1 162.8 143.6 278.9
July 2015 179.0 132.9 158.4 137.5 271.5
Aug. 2015 180.3 129.8 159.7 134.4 260.9
Sep. 2015 180.0 131.7 154.3 133.5 257.5
Oct. 2015 181.5 134.2 153.9 121.4 256.8
Nov. 2015 183.1 137.3 145.5 109.1 242.1
Dec. 2015 185.5 131.2 150.1 113.0 235.4
Jan. 2016 186.7 123.4 150.0 120.0 221.1
Feb. 2016 190.4 116.1 150.5 120.7 212.4
March 2016 193.0 111.8 145.0 111.8 205.5
April 2016 194.1 110.4 142.7 106.1 198.1
May 2016 192.7 113.5 140.3 114.2 190.0
June 2016 193.8 115.0 143.4 116.1 168.1
July 2016 194.0 115.1 153.5 113.9 165.9
Aug. 2016 193.7 113.7 158.4 102.9 161.6
Sep. 2016 193.6 106.1 159.7 101.4 172.0
Oct. 2016 194.9 101.3 148.2 100.4 162.5
Nov. 2016 196.2 96.3 144.7 104.0 148.4
Dec. 2016 196.0 99.9 140.6 99.6 130.9
Jan.2017 196.4 116.5 141.6 97.5 125.3
Feb. 2017 197.4 132.5 141.3 91.2 130.2
March 2017 198.5 141.7 148.7 95.1 128.4
April 2017 196.2 137.7 146.3 95.7 127.6
May 2017 190.1 132.6 143.6 92.0 121.6
June 2017 185.6 131.3 143.4 85.8 123.1
July 2017 187.4 128.7 143.0 93.7 114.1
Aug. 2017 192.0 131.6 139.7 102.9 117.7
Sep. 2017 195.2 133.4 137.1 104.1 118.5
Oct. 2017 194.9 136.4 145.0 95.3 125.9
Nov. 2017 195.5 138.8 143.6 92.4 127.3
Dec. 2017 198.3 146.0 142.9 94.9 139.4
Jan. 2018 195.5 150.6 138.9 95.2 139.5
Feb. 2018 194.8 150.6 146.0 96.7 140.7
March 2018 192.2 146.5 143.1 95.5 137.4
April 2018 197.6 143.6 148.4 99.0 141.0
May 2018 200.8 146.4 155.2 104.8 150.1
June 2018 201.5 150.9 159.8 111.6 151.1
July 2018 201.9 157.2 154.7 109.5 154.4
Aug. 2018 201.5 156.0 159.4 101.7 153.0
Sep. 2018 202.4 165.5 162.3 101.9 150.7
Oct. 2018 202.1 168.1 163.4 110.5 150.9
Nov. 2018 201.6 168.8 157.1 120.1 159.7
Dec. 2018 202.4 157.0 156.2 120.4 166.4
Jan. 2019 204.0 152.5 162.6 119.1 172.8
Feb. 2019 203.8 151.1 168.4 129.0 173.0
March 2019 203.2 151.5 173.5 134.7 171.1
April 2019 205.4 153.3 176.5 131.2 173.8
May 2019 206.8 154.2 176.3 115.6 171.0
June 2019 210.0 150.4 177.6 120.2 179.8
July 2019 206.5 147.3 179.5 126.5 180.9
Aug. 2019 207.5 144.8 179.5 137.4 181.4
Sep. 2019 205.4 148.3 178.8 147.2 183.6
Oct. 2019 207.2 146.8 185.0 148.3 185.4
Nov. 2019 207.3 149.7 193.7 147.2 188.9
Dec. 2019 208.3 150.5 198.7 144.5 188.4
Jan. 2020 209.0 150.4 193.1 145.0 191.0
Feb. 2020 211.1 147.4 185.8 142.3 183.3
March 2020 214.3 138.3 185.1 145.7 177.1

Monthly change: ships, boats and oil platforms increases manufacturing turnover

Total Norwegian manufacturing turnover increased by 2.8 per cent from February to March 2010, according to seasonally-adjusted figures. The domestic market contributed to the increase. A slight decline was reported in the export market. A weakening in NOK has contributed to turnover in the export market remained relatively high dispite the coronavirus.

The industry building of ships and oil platforms contributed the most to the increase in Norwegian manufacturing turnover in March 2020, with a increase 42 per cent in the period. This increase comes after a low turnover in January and February 2020 and were driven by a few large deliveries in March 2020.

On the other hand, the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products contributed the most to curb the positive development in total manufacturing turnover. Lower demand and decreased prices on refined petroleum products was a contributing factor to the decreased turnover for the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceutical products.

Monthly change: increase in manufacturing turnover in the euro area in February 2020

Manufacturing turnover in the euro area increased by 0.9 per cent from January to February 2020, according to seasonally-adjusted figures. Total turnover in Norwegian manufacturing decreased by 1.2 per cent in the same period. In the other Scandinavian countries, the turnover in Denmark and Sweden went down by 2.2 and 0.4 per cent respectively, according to Eurostat.

The seasonal adjustment routine has been adjusted during the Corona-crisis

Thursday 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. Several manufacturing establishment have been affected by these measures, and this has led to a change in the activity pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (for March), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying March as an outlier. The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.

The trend figure for March which is calculated in the seasonal adjustment routine, will only be a projected value, and is therefore difficult to interpret in March.

Response rate for March

The data collection for March has been conducted in the period from 31st of March to 6th of May 2020. Even though, all of the data collection has been done after the 12th of March, the response rate is still quite high. The response rate for March 2020 is 95.1 per cent, while the corresponding rate for the same period last year was 97.8 per cent.

On the effect of Easter

It is important to be aware that the uncertainty for the calendar-adjusted and seasonally-adjusted indices for March and April is greater than normal due to the changed placing of Easter. This effect will also affect the seasonally-adjusted figures for the 1st and 2nd quarters. This is accounted for when adjusting for seasonal variations. However, it can still be difficult to adjust for all impacts.

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