Small decline in manufacturing output in September

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Norwegian manufacturing output saw a marginal decrease of 0.5 per cent from August to September 2020, according to seasonally adjusted figures. On a quarterly basis, the manufacturing output had a growth of 3 per cent from the second to the third quarter of 2020.

Written by: Yoon Nakstad

The index level for Norwegian manufacturing in the third quarter of 2020 amounted to 114.8 (2005=100). The corresponding figure for the previous quarter was 111.5. Figure 1 shows that the output in manufacturing fell severely from March to May, and then increased again until August, before it had a minor fall in September.

1 March 2020 and the subsequent months are specified as outliers in the seasonal adjustment routine Hence, the trend figures for 2020 are not included in the figure.

Figure 1. Production development in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted and smoothed seasonally adjusted figures. 2005=100

Smoothed seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted
Jan. 2015 123.7 122.4
Feb. 2015 122.7 122.6
March 2015 121.8 126.8
April 2015 120.9 121.4
May 2015 120.2 119.0
June 2015 119.5 120.1
July 2015 118.9 115.2
Aug. 2015 118.2 118.1
Sep. 2015 117.6 118.8
Oct. 2015 116.9 115.8
Nov. 2015 116.3 116.8
Dec. 2015 115.8 115.3
Jan. 2016 115.4 115.1
Feb. 2016 115.1 115.5
March 2016 114.8 117.9
April 2016 114.5 114.3
May 2016 114.1 114.8
June 2016 113.6 112.6
July 2016 113.1 113.8
Aug. 2016 112.6 109.9
Sep. 2016 112.4 112.3
Oct. 2016 112.4 112.1
Nov. 2016 112.6 112.2
Dec. 2016 113.0 112.7
Jan. 2017 113.5 114.3
Feb. 2017 113.9 114.2
March 2017 114.2 114.1
April 2017 114.4 114.2
May 2017 114.4 114.3
June 2017 114.3 114.3
July 2017 114.3 114.7
Aug. 2017 114.4 110.6
Sep. 2017 114.4 114.1
Oct. 2017 114.5 114.2
Nov. 2017 114.6 114.8
Dec. 2017 114.7 115.9
Jan. 2018 114.8 113.9
Feb. 2018 114.8 114.6
March 2018 114.8 115.0
April 2018 114.9 115.3
May 2018 115.1 114.7
June 2018 115.5 115.4
July 2018 115.8 115.9
Aug. 2018 116.3 116.6
Sep. 2018 116.8 116.1
Oct. 2018 117.4 117.7
Nov. 2018 117.8 118.0
Dec. 2018 118.2 118.6
Jan. 2019 118.4 118.2
Feb. 2019 118.8 118.3
March 2019 119.1 117.0
April 2019 119.3 119.8
May 2019 119.5 120.1
June 2019 119.6 118.9
July 2019 119.6 120.1
Aug. 2019 119.5 118.8
Sep. 2019 119.4 119.6
Oct. 2019 119.3 119.5
Nov. 2019 119.3 119.1
Dec. 2019 119.3 119.1
Jan. 2020 119.2 119.6
Feb. 2020 119.3 119.1
March 2020 115.5
April 2020 113.5
May 2020 110.4
June 2020 110.6
July 2020 112.7
Aug. 2020 116.1
Sep. 2020 115.5

Monthly change: Fabricated metal products and food products contributed to the decrease

According to seasonally-adjusted figure, manufacturing output had a decrease of 0.5 per cent from August to September. Fabricated metal products contributed most to this decrease with a fall of almost 11 per cent. Food products had an output decline as well which can be explained by a lower activity level within processing and preservation of meat and fish.

On the other hand, the industry grouping refined petroleum, chemicals and pharmaceuticals contributed most to dampen the overall decrease with a growth of 4.8 per cent. Production of non-ferrous metals saw an increase of 6.5 per cent.

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2

Figure 2. Indicator for petroleum-related industries. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Petroleum-related manufacturing and support activities Petroleum-related manufacturing Manufacturing ex. petroleum-related industries
Jan. 2010 143.9 151.0 94.7
Feb. 2010 143.2 150.6 95.3
March 2010 144.9 151.4 95.9
April 2010 145.8 151.9 96.5
May 2010 143.4 151.6 96.0
June 2010 143.1 152.3 96.7
July 2010 142.3 152.3 98.2
Aug. 2010 142.2 152.0 98.6
Sep. 2010 143.0 151.4 98.5
Oct. 2010 144.8 151.2 97.7
Nov. 2010 148.2 152.6 99.0
Dec. 2010 151.0 152.7 99.0
Jan. 2011 149.9 153.0 99.0
Feb. 2011 149.5 153.1 98.8
March 2011 147.3 153.3 99.6
April 2011 148.9 151.8 99.6
May 2011 150.6 152.7 99.4
June 2011 152.3 151.9 97.8
July 2011 154.2 153.0 95.7
Aug. 2011 155.9 154.5 94.2
Sep. 2011 159.1 158.7 94.5
Oct. 2011 161.2 163.3 95.6
Nov. 2011 162.8 164.7 96.3
Dec. 2011 164.7 166.6 95.3
Jan. 2012 167.1 167.9 95.3
Feb. 2012 169.5 168.4 95.2
March 2012 167.6 168.0 95.5
April 2012 164.7 166.2 95.6
May 2012 164.7 167.9 95.9
June 2012 168.2 169.3 95.9
July 2012 170.5 172.3 95.6
Aug. 2012 172.8 174.4 95.4
Sep. 2012 173.5 177.0 95.4
Oct. 2012 177.6 179.7 95.0
Nov. 2012 178.1 180.9 94.6
Dec. 2012 179.1 181.6 94.4
Jan. 2013 180.3 183.2 94.5
Feb. 2013 182.5 186.1 94.2
March 2013 186.7 188.2 93.8
April 2013 187.8 191.5 93.4
May 2013 189.3 193.5 93.0
June 2013 190.8 197.6 93.4
July 2013 193.8 198.7 93.9
Aug. 2013 194.1 198.2 94.6
Sep. 2013 193.8 196.9 94.6
Oct. 2013 191.5 195.0 94.6
Nov. 2013 193.0 195.2 94.1
Dec. 2013 194.0 195.2 94.2
Jan. 2014 196.4 196.8 94.2
Feb. 2014 196.9 198.6 94.4
March 2014 196.3 199.7 94.1
April 2014 196.0 199.7 94.2
May 2014 197.3 200.0 94.5
June 2014 199.9 203.2 95.2
July 2014 199.1 207.7 95.0
Aug. 2014 201.7 213.6 95.1
Sep. 2014 201.4 213.7 94.1
Oct. 2014 206.5 214.5 94.4
Nov. 2014 204.5 212.8 93.9
Dec. 2014 203.6 214.8 94.5
Jan. 2015 199.8 212.8 93.6
Feb. 2015 197.0 209.9 93.6
March 2015 195.6 207.2 94.3
April 2015 194.0 204.4 94.6
May 2015 189.1 201.2 94.3
June 2015 184.4 195.8 93.8
July 2015 180.4 192.4 92.7
Aug. 2015 179.2 189.7 93.1
Sep. 2015 177.8 188.2 93.0
Oct. 2015 174.2 185.4 93.9
Nov. 2015 172.1 182.7 94.1
Dec. 2015 168.1 178.3 94.0
Jan. 2016 165.5 176.7 94.2
Feb. 2016 164.8 174.3 94.4
March 2016 165.3 174.3 94.9
April 2016 163.7 172.5 95.1
May 2016 160.6 170.9 95.3
June 2016 156.7 167.3 94.9
July 2016 157.4 167.1 94.9
Aug. 2016 153.4 160.7 94.8
Sep. 2016 152.3 159.5 95.0
Oct. 2016 149.9 156.9 94.8
Nov. 2016 151.4 160.0 94.9
Dec. 2016 151.6 160.9 95.1
Jan. 2017 151.2 159.0 96.7
Feb. 2017 149.9 158.5 97.8
March 2017 146.6 154.5 98.8
April 2017 147.0 155.7 98.4
May 2017 147.5 156.0 98.3
June 2017 149.3 158.0 98.3
July 2017 149.1 156.4 98.9
Aug. 2017 147.2 154.3 98.0
Sep. 2017 147.6 154.9 97.7
Oct. 2017 146.9 156.1 97.1
Nov. 2017 149.6 158.8 98.1
Dec. 2017 150.5 159.3 99.0
Jan. 2018 150.8 158.9 99.0
Feb. 2018 150.8 159.6 98.7
March 2018 152.0 161.5 97.2
April 2018 152.5 162.3 97.6
May 2018 153.5 161.6 97.7
June 2018 153.6 160.5 98.6
July 2018 153.1 160.8 98.8
Aug. 2018 154.6 162.8 99.0
Sep. 2018 154.8 165.0 98.5
Oct. 2018 158.9 166.9 98.7
Nov. 2018 160.3 168.7 98.8
Dec. 2018 162.0 170.7 99.6
Jan. 2019 164.0 173.7 99.2
Feb. 2019 166.4 176.4 98.8
March 2019 168.7 177.5 97.6
April 2019 171.2 180.0 97.6
May 2019 173.3 182.7 97.7
June 2019 174.9 185.3 98.1
July 2019 175.6 186.4 97.8
Aug. 2019 174.8 185.4 97.5
Sep. 2019 176.7 185.4 97.6
Oct. 2019 177.0 184.8 97.7
Nov. 2019 180.3 186.8 97.4
Dec. 2019 181.5 187.9 97.2
Jan. 2020 183.1 189.2 96.9
Feb. 2020 184.0 188.5 97.0
March 2020 178.0 182.7 96.7
April 2020 170.6 174.6 96.1
May 2020 157.9 166.5 94.5
June 2020 154.4 163.3 93.3
July 2020 151.6 160.8 93.1
Aug. 2020 156.1 163.9 94.5
Sep. 2020 159.4 166.2 95.9

Three-month change: Strong growth in manufacturing output

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output saw an increase of 3 per cent from the second to the third quarter of 2020. Ships, boats and oil platforms and the industry grouping furniture and manufacturing n.e.c. contributed most to the overall output growth. Their output growth from the second to the third quarter amounted to 16 and 39 per cent respectively. This increase follows after these industries were severely affected by the infection control measures introduced in the first quarter to mitigate the spread of the corona virus.   

While several industries experienced an increase in production during the third quarter, the industry grouping computer and electrical equipment contributed to dampen the overall increase with a decline of 5.5 per cent.

The analytical grouping petroleum-related manufacturing had an overall growth of 1.8 per cent in the third quarter.

Monthly change: Marginal output growth in the Euro area in August 2020

Estimated figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, indicate that manufacturing output in the Euro area had a marginal growth of 0.2 per cent from July to August 2020. This flattening came after a strong output growth from May to July. Compared with the level in August 2019 however, the output level was still low.

In August, Norwegian manufacturing production had a solid growth of 3 per cent. Both Sweden and Denmark experienced a sharp output increase in the same period, with 8.7 and 5.9 per cent growth respectively.

For more information on the development in European manufacturing sector in August, see this article from Eurostat.  

Figure 3. Index of production for manufacturing. Euro area and Norway (2015=100). Seasonally adjusted

Euro area Norway
Jan. 2015 97.4 102.5
Feb. 2015 99.8 102.7
March 2015 100.6 106.3
April 2015 99.8 101.7
May 2015 100.1 99.7
June 2015 100.3 100.6
July 2015 100.7 96.5
Aug. 2015 100.2 99.0
Sep. 2015 100.2 99.5
Oct. 2015 100.3 97.0
Nov. 2015 100.0 97.9
Dec. 2015 100.5 96.6
Jan. 2016 103.4 96.4
Feb. 2016 101.2 96.7
March 2016 100.4 98.8
April 2016 101.7 95.8
May 2016 100.3 96.2
June 2016 101.3 94.3
July 2016 101.4 95.4
Aug. 2016 101.6 92.1
Sep. 2016 101.6 94.1
Oct. 2016 102.7 93.9
Nov. 2016 102.8 94.0
Dec. 2016 102.5 94.4
Jan. 2017 101.9 95.8
Feb. 2017 103.1 95.7
March 2017 103.3 95.5
April 2017 104.1 95.7
May 2017 104.3 95.7
June 2017 103.6 95.8
July 2017 105.6 96.1
Aug. 2017 106.1 92.6
Sep. 2017 105.9 95.6
Oct. 2017 105.6 95.7
Nov. 2017 108.1 96.2
Dec. 2017 108.6 97.1
Jan. 2018 107.1 95.4
Feb. 2018 105.3 96.0
March 2018 105.3 96.3
April 2018 105.9 96.6
May 2018 107.1 96.1
June 2018 107.0 96.7
July 2018 105.7 97.1
Aug. 2018 106.8 97.7
Sep. 2018 106.2 97.2
Oct. 2018 106.3 98.6
Nov. 2018 105.1 98.8
Dec. 2018 105.0 99.3
Jan. 2019 105.7 99.0
Feb. 2019 106.1 99.1
March 2019 105.8 98.0
April 2019 105.0 100.4
May 2019 105.8 100.6
June 2019 104.5 99.6
July 2019 104.5 100.6
Aug. 2019 104.6 99.5
Sep. 2019 104.5 100.2
Oct. 2019 104.1 100.1
Nov. 2019 103.7 99.8
Dec. 2019 101.8 99.8
Jan. 2020 104.1 100.2
Feb. 2020 104.1 99.8
March 2020 91.0 96.8
April 2020 73.3 95.0
May 2020 83.2 92.4
June 2020 91.8 92.6
July 2020 97.0 94.4
Aug. 2020 97.2 97.2

Three-month change: Growth in the total production index

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the total production index (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply saw an increase of 1 per cent in the third quarter of 2020 compared with the previous quarter. Extraction of crude petroleum had a decline of 1 per cent, while extraction of natural gas increased with 5.8 per cent. For more details about oil and gas extraction in this period, see the press release from The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction, there was an output growth of 4.4 per cent from the second to the third quarter of 2020.

In the same period, mining and quarrying saw a decline of 4.1 per cent. Norwegian electricity supply decreased by 2.6 per cent.

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 4. Production development. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Manufacturing Extraction, mining, manufacturing and elec. Extraction and related services
Jan. 2010 109.4 92.3 85.1
Feb. 2010 109.7 92.0 84.7
March 2010 110.1 91.6 84.4
April 2010 110.8 90.9 83.8
May 2010 110.3 90.3 83.6
June 2010 111.1 89.3 82.2
July 2010 111.8 88.1 80.4
Aug. 2010 112.0 84.9 75.7
Sep. 2010 111.7 83.6 73.7
Oct. 2010 111.4 84.8 75.3
Nov. 2010 112.6 87.4 77.9
Dec. 2010 112.6 89.1 80.0
Jan. 2011 112.7 87.7 78.4
Feb. 2011 112.6 87.0 77.9
March 2011 113.1 85.8 76.5
April 2011 112.9 84.7 74.9
May 2011 113.0 82.3 71.1
June 2011 111.7 81.7 70.0
July 2011 110.2 81.9 69.7
Aug. 2011 109.6 84.3 72.6
Sep. 2011 110.9 85.6 74.2
Oct. 2011 112.9 86.1 74.5
Nov. 2011 113.8 86.4 74.7
Dec. 2011 113.5 85.3 73.6
Jan. 2012 113.9 86.6 74.8
Feb. 2012 113.9 87.3 75.1
March 2012 114.0 88.4 75.8
April 2012 113.7 88.4 75.5
May 2012 114.4 88.5 75.5
June 2012 114.8 88.9 76.0
July 2012 115.3 88.0 75.1
Aug. 2012 115.7 87.3 74.0
Sep. 2012 116.3 85.0 70.4
Oct. 2012 116.8 85.2 70.4
Nov. 2012 116.8 84.3 69.3
Dec. 2012 116.7 85.3 70.9
Jan. 2013 117.2 83.8 70.1
Feb. 2013 117.7 82.4 69.3
March 2013 118.0 80.7 68.4
April 2013 118.8 81.1 68.9
May 2013 119.0 82.8 71.1
June 2013 120.4 84.0 72.4
July 2013 120.8 85.1 73.6
Aug. 2013 121.1 84.5 72.8
Sep. 2013 120.8 83.9 72.1
Oct. 2013 120.3 81.6 69.4
Nov. 2013 120.1 81.5 69.3
Dec. 2013 120.2 82.0 69.9
Jan. 2014 120.7 83.7 71.5
Feb. 2014 121.3 84.3 71.8
March 2014 121.9 85.2 72.3
April 2014 121.9 85.4 72.3
May 2014 122.2 84.2 70.2
June 2014 123.0 83.9 69.4
July 2014 123.6 83.6 68.8
Aug. 2014 125.2 84.7 70.2
Sep. 2014 124.5 85.7 71.8
Oct. 2014 125.4 87.2 73.6
Nov. 2014 124.6 87.7 74.4
Dec. 2014 125.4 87.4 73.7
Jan. 2015 124.1 86.1 72.4
Feb. 2015 123.4 86.1 72.7
March 2015 123.9 86.3 72.9
April 2015 123.6 85.4 71.7
May 2015 122.4 84.9 71.3
June 2015 120.2 85.0 72.0
July 2015 118.1 86.2 74.2
Aug. 2015 117.8 87.0 75.4
Sep. 2015 117.4 87.9 76.7
Oct. 2015 117.6 88.1 77.1
Nov. 2015 117.1 87.3 76.2
Dec. 2015 116.0 85.4 74.1
Jan. 2016 115.7 85.2 73.7
Feb. 2016 115.3 85.3 73.9
March 2016 116.2 85.7 73.7
April 2016 115.9 86.1 74.2
May 2016 115.7 86.4 74.7
June 2016 113.9 85.3 73.8
July 2016 113.7 84.9 73.5
Aug. 2016 112.1 83.2 71.8
Sep. 2016 112.0 81.9 70.1
Oct. 2016 111.4 82.4 71.0
Nov. 2016 112.2 83.9 73.0
Dec. 2016 112.3 85.8 75.4
Jan. 2017 113.1 85.7 74.3
Feb. 2017 113.7 85.9 73.6
March 2017 114.2 87.0 74.2
April 2017 114.2 87.2 74.5
May 2017 114.2 87.2 74.3
June 2017 114.3 87.1 73.8
July 2017 114.4 86.9 73.4
Aug. 2017 113.2 87.0 73.9
Sep. 2017 113.1 87.5 74.8
Oct. 2017 113.0 86.9 74.0
Nov. 2017 114.4 86.1 72.4
Dec. 2017 115.0 84.9 70.4
Jan. 2018 114.9 85.9 70.8
Feb. 2018 114.8 86.9 71.1
March 2018 114.5 87.8 71.2
April 2018 115.0 87.3 70.4
May 2018 115.0 86.4 69.5
June 2018 115.1 86.9 70.9
July 2018 115.3 87.3 71.5
Aug. 2018 116.0 88.6 73.2
Sep. 2018 116.2 88.3 72.4
Oct. 2018 116.8 88.8 72.2
Nov. 2018 117.3 87.9 70.5
Dec. 2018 118.1 87.3 69.1
Jan. 2019 118.3 85.9 68.2
Feb. 2019 118.4 84.6 67.4
March 2019 117.8 83.2 66.6
April 2019 118.4 82.7 65.7
May 2019 119.0 82.8 65.6
June 2019 119.6 82.6 64.8
July 2019 119.7 82.5 64.4
Aug. 2019 119.3 81.8 63.4
Sep. 2019 119.5 81.4 62.4
Oct. 2019 119.3 81.8 63.2
Nov. 2019 119.4 83.4 65.7
Dec. 2019 119.2 85.6 69.5
Jan. 2020 119.3 85.9 70.8
Feb. 2020 119.3 86.2 71.7
March 2020 118.1 86.6 72.5
April 2020 116.0 87.6 73.5
May 2020 113.1 87.5 73.7
June 2020 111.5 86.4 73.0
July 2020 111.2 86.3 73.1
Aug. 2020 113.1 86.7 73.4
Sep. 2020 114.8 87.3 73.5

The seasonal adjustment routine has been adjusted during the Corona-crisis

Thursday 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. Several manufacturing establishment have been affected by these measures, and this has led to a change in the activity pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (from March), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying March and following months as outliers.

This implies that normal trend figures will not be calculated, and instead the trend will follow the seasonal adjusted figures. One important exception is the last observation, where the trend will be an extrapolated figure where the last observation is not included. The trend figures from, and including, March 2020 will therefore be difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.

Response rate for September 2020

The data collection for September has been conducted in the period from the 30th of September to the 4th of November 2020. The response rate for September 2020 is 98 per cent.

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