Strong decline in total investments for 2021

Published:

Companies’ latest investment estimates for 2020 are expected to decrease within oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply. There is suggested a sharp decline in total investments for 2021.

The investment survey conducted in May within oil and gas, manufacturing, mining and quarrying and electricity supply in 2020 amounted to NOK 246.7 billion. This is 4.7 per cent lower than the corresponding figure for 2019. The fall can mainly be attributed to a clear decline in industrial investment, but investments in electricity supply are also declining. Investments within the oil and gas industry contributed also negatively with a minor decline of 1.9 per cent compared to the corresponding figures for 2019. For more details about investments within the oil and gas industry, please see the following article.

Companies’ latest total investment estimates for 2021 indicate a sharp decline of 15 per cent compared with the corresponding figures of 2020.The decrease in 2021 is driven by a sharp fall in investment within the oil and gas industry. Low investment within manufacturing and electricity supply also contribute negatively.

Figure 1. Estimated investments collected in 2nd quarter same year

Extraction and pipeline transport Manufacturing, mining and quarrying Electricity supply, gas and steam
2010 145447 19604 14653
2011 150104 19823 18735
2012 191543 20993 21696
2013 219668 20527 20681
2014 241387 21474 22495
2015 200262 20684 24783
2016 169896 23204 27345
2017 154381 22616 34780
2018 156454 25111 40032
2019 183738 33439 41684
2020 180314 27528 38877

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, quarterly final investments had following development from the 4th quarter of 2019 to the 1st quarter of 2020:

  • Oil and gas: 2,6 %
  • Manufacturing : -6.5 %
  • Electricity supply: -8.8 %

Figure 2. Final investments per quarter. Seasonally adjusted. 2005=100

Manufacturing Electricity supply, gas and steam Extraction and pipeline transport
Q1-2010 102.1 145.2 137.6
Q2-2010 100.6 164.7 148.4
Q3-2010 89.8 187.1 133.2
Q4-2010 99.4 178.1 144.7
Q1-2011 98.3 197.5 156.3
Q2-2011 99.2 204.1 161.1
Q3-2011 107.9 188.4 176.9
Q4-2011 104.5 214.5 183.4
Q1-2012 111 218.5 188.5
Q2-2012 109.3 206.8 195.9
Q3-2012 98.4 235 194.1
Q4-2012 106.1 245.3 214.9
Q1-2013 100.6 223.2 224.4
Q2-2013 110.7 234.7 235.9
Q3-2013 108 245 253.3
Q4-2013 103.5 253 253.1
Q1-2014 111.7 258.7 255.4
Q2-2014 112.3 275.8 253.3
Q3-2014 112.1 246.2 249.1
Q4-2014 117.8 248.5 237.1
Q1-2015 100.2 263.3 242.8
Q2-2015 103.9 269.4 230
Q3-2015 116.9 265.5 216.6
Q4-2015 108.4 288.6 203.5
Q1-2016 127.5 309.3 192
Q2-2016 123.8 287.1 186.9
Q3-2016 124.4 313.2 179.1
Q4-2016 129 323.5 171
Q1-2017 121.1 369.7 171
Q2-2017 110.3 313.4 170.4
Q3-2017 110.7 415.1 152.5
Q4-2017 123.1 376.1 165.3
Q1-2018 121.3 424.1 154.3
Q2-2018 133.7 473.4 161.8
Q3-2018 134 489.2 170.7
Q4-2018 137.7 479.5 183.2
Q1-2019 158.2 432.2 184.3
Q2-2019 164.4 443.7 192.3
Q3-2019 185.5 474.7 199.6
Q4-2019 170.8 476.3 208.7
Q1-2020 159.7 434.6 214.2

The seasonal adjustment routine has been adjusted during the Corona-crisis

Thursday the 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. Several establishments within oil and gas, manufacturing, mining & quarrying and electricity supply have been affected by these measures. This has led to a change in the investment pattern compared to what we usually observe. Hence, the seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (the 1st quarter), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying the 1st quarter as an outlier. The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.

The trend figure for the 1st quarter which is calculated in the seasonal adjustment routine, will only be a projected value, and is therefore difficult to interpret in the 1st quarter.]

Response rate for the 2nd quarter

Due to the Corona-situation and lay- offs the response rate for the 2nd quarter is lower than usual. The response rate for the parts of the survey covering manufacturing, mining & quarrying and electricity supply is 93 per cent. The corresponding figure for the same quarter last year was 97 per cent. Hence, this leads to somewhat more uncertainty in the figures.

The oil and gas industry has a separate data collection, and the response rate for this part of the survey is 94 per cent. The response rate for the corresponding quarter last year was 96 per cent.