Unchanged manufacturing output

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Norwegian manufacturing output was unchanged from November 2019-January 2020 compared to the previous three-month period, according to seasonally adjusted figures. The long term trend now shows an almost flat production development since June 2019.

Written by: Marte Claussen

The index level for Norwegian manufacturing amounted to 119.4 (2005=100) both in the period November 2019-January 2020 and in the previous three- month period. After steady growth since May 2018, the long term trend shows that the output increase has leveled out since the second half of 2019 (see figure 1).

Figure 1. Production development in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted and smoothed seasonally adjusted figures. 2005=100

Smoothed seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted
Jan. 2015 123.7 122.4
Feb. 2015 122.7 122.7
Mar. 2015 121.8 126.9
Apr. 2015 121.0 121.4
May. 2015 120.2 119.0
June. 2015 119.5 120.1
July. 2015 118.9 115.2
Aug. 2015 118.3 118.1
Sep. 2015 117.6 118.8
Oct. 2015 116.9 115.8
Nov. 2015 116.3 116.9
Dec. 2015 115.8 115.3
Jan. 2016 115.4 115.1
Feb. 2016 115.1 115.4
Mar. 2016 114.8 117.9
Apr. 2016 114.5 114.3
May. 2016 114.1 114.8
June. 2016 113.6 112.6
July. 2016 113.1 113.8
Aug. 2016 112.6 109.9
Sep. 2016 112.4 112.3
Oct. 2016 112.4 112.1
Nov. 2016 112.6 112.2
Dec. 2016 113.0 112.8
Jan. 2017 113.5 114.4
Feb. 2017 113.9 114.2
Mar. 2017 114.2 114.1
Apr. 2017 114.3 114.2
May. 2017 114.4 114.3
June. 2017 114.3 114.3
July. 2017 114.3 114.7
Aug. 2017 114.4 110.6
Sep. 2017 114.5 114.1
Oct. 2017 114.5 114.3
Nov. 2017 114.7 114.8
Dec. 2017 114.7 116.0
Jan. 2018 114.8 113.9
Feb. 2018 114.8 114.5
Mar. 2018 114.8 115.0
Apr. 2018 114.9 115.3
May. 2018 115.1 114.7
June. 2018 115.4 115.4
July. 2018 115.8 115.9
Aug. 2018 116.3 116.7
Sep. 2018 116.9 116.1
Oct. 2018 117.4 117.7
Nov. 2018 117.8 118.0
Dec. 2018 118.2 118.6
Jan. 2019 118.5 118.5
Feb. 2019 118.9 118.1
Mar. 2019 119.2 116.9
Apr. 2019 119.4 119.9
May. 2019 119.6 120.3
June. 2019 119.7 119.1
July. 2019 119.7 120.2
Aug. 2019 119.6 118.9
Sep. 2019 119.5 119.7
Oct. 2019 119.4 119.7
Nov. 2019 119.4 119.2
Dec. 2019 119.5 119.3
Jan. 2020 119.6 119.8

Three-month change: Strong growth in ships, boats and oil platforms

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output was unchanged from November 2019-January 2020 compared to the previous three-month period. Food products contributed the most to dampen the overall production development, with an output decline of 2.3 per cent.

On the other hand, ships, boats and oil platforms had the largest positive contribution with an increase of as much as 9.7 per cent. This increase is particularly due to high activity within building of oil platforms. The high activity within building of oil platforms is related to a high investment level in the Norwegian oil and gas sector.

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 2. Indicator for petroleum-related industries. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Petroleum-related manufacturing and support activities Petroleum-related manufacturing Manufacturing ex. petroleum-related industries
Jan. 2010 143.9 151.0 94.7
Feb. 2010 143.2 150.6 95.3
Mar. 2010 144.9 151.4 95.9
Apr. 2010 145.8 151.9 96.5
May. 2010 143.4 151.6 96.0
June. 2010 143.1 152.3 96.7
July. 2010 142.3 152.3 98.2
Aug. 2010 142.2 152.0 98.6
Sep. 2010 143.0 151.4 98.5
Oct. 2010 144.8 151.2 97.7
Nov. 2010 148.2 152.6 99.0
Dec. 2010 151.0 152.7 99.0
Jan. 2011 149.9 153.0 99.0
Feb. 2011 149.5 153.1 98.8
Mar. 2011 147.3 153.3 99.6
Apr. 2011 148.9 151.8 99.6
May. 2011 150.6 152.7 99.4
June. 2011 152.3 151.9 97.8
July. 2011 154.2 153.0 95.7
Aug. 2011 155.9 154.5 94.2
Sep. 2011 159.1 158.7 94.5
Oct. 2011 161.2 163.3 95.6
Nov. 2011 162.8 164.7 96.3
Dec. 2011 164.7 166.6 95.3
Jan. 2012 167.1 167.9 95.3
Feb. 2012 169.5 168.4 95.2
Mar. 2012 167.6 168.0 95.5
Apr. 2012 164.7 166.2 95.6
May. 2012 164.7 167.9 95.9
June. 2012 168.2 169.3 95.9
July. 2012 170.5 172.3 95.6
Aug. 2012 172.8 174.4 95.4
Sep. 2012 173.5 177.0 95.4
Oct. 2012 177.6 179.7 95.0
Nov. 2012 178.1 180.9 94.6
Dec. 2012 179.1 181.6 94.4
Jan. 2013 180.3 183.2 94.5
Feb. 2013 182.5 186.1 94.2
Mar. 2013 186.7 188.2 93.8
Apr. 2013 187.8 191.5 93.4
May. 2013 189.3 193.5 93.0
June. 2013 190.8 197.6 93.4
July. 2013 193.8 198.7 93.9
Aug. 2013 194.1 198.2 94.6
Sep. 2013 193.8 196.9 94.6
Oct. 2013 191.5 195.0 94.6
Nov. 2013 193.0 195.2 94.1
Dec. 2013 194.0 195.2 94.2
Jan. 2014 196.4 196.8 94.2
Feb. 2014 196.9 198.7 94.4
Mar. 2014 196.3 199.8 94.1
Apr. 2014 195.9 199.8 94.2
May. 2014 197.3 200.1 94.5
June. 2014 199.9 203.2 95.2
July. 2014 199.1 207.7 95.0
Aug. 2014 201.7 213.6 95.1
Sep. 2014 201.4 213.8 94.1
Oct. 2014 206.5 214.5 94.4
Nov. 2014 204.4 212.8 93.9
Dec. 2014 203.6 214.9 94.5
Jan. 2015 199.8 212.9 93.6
Feb. 2015 197.0 210.0 93.6
Mar. 2015 195.6 207.3 94.3
Apr. 2015 194.1 204.5 94.6
May. 2015 189.1 201.3 94.3
June. 2015 184.5 195.8 93.8
July. 2015 180.4 192.4 92.7
Aug. 2015 179.2 189.7 93.1
Sep. 2015 177.8 188.2 93.0
Oct. 2015 174.1 185.4 93.9
Nov. 2015 172.0 182.7 94.1
Dec. 2015 168.1 178.3 94.0
Jan. 2016 165.5 176.7 94.2
Feb. 2016 164.8 174.3 94.4
Mar. 2016 165.3 174.3 94.9
Apr. 2016 163.7 172.4 95.1
May. 2016 160.6 170.9 95.3
June. 2016 156.7 167.2 94.9
July. 2016 157.3 167.1 94.9
Aug. 2016 153.3 160.7 94.8
Sep. 2016 152.2 159.5 95.0
Oct. 2016 149.8 157.0 94.8
Nov. 2016 151.4 160.1 94.9
Dec. 2016 151.6 161.1 95.1
Jan. 2017 151.2 159.2 96.7
Feb. 2017 149.9 158.5 97.8
Mar. 2017 146.7 154.5 98.8
Apr. 2017 147.0 155.6 98.4
May. 2017 147.6 155.9 98.3
June. 2017 149.4 157.9 98.3
July. 2017 149.1 156.4 98.9
Aug. 2017 147.2 154.3 98.0
Sep. 2017 147.6 154.9 97.7
Oct. 2017 146.8 156.2 97.1
Nov. 2017 149.6 158.8 98.1
Dec. 2017 150.5 159.4 99.0
Jan. 2018 150.8 159.1 99.0
Feb. 2018 150.8 159.6 98.7
Mar. 2018 152.1 161.4 97.2
Apr. 2018 152.6 162.1 97.6
May. 2018 153.6 161.5 97.8
June. 2018 153.7 160.4 98.6
July. 2018 153.1 160.7 98.8
Aug. 2018 154.6 162.8 99.0
Sep. 2018 154.7 165.0 98.5
Oct. 2018 158.8 166.9 98.7
Nov. 2018 160.3 168.8 98.8
Dec. 2018 162.1 171.0 99.6
Jan. 2019 164.2 174.1 99.2
Feb. 2019 166.8 176.5 98.8
Mar. 2019 169.1 177.6 97.5
Apr. 2019 171.7 179.9 97.5
May. 2019 173.6 182.7 97.7
June. 2019 175.3 185.2 98.1
July. 2019 174.8 186.3 97.8
Aug. 2019 173.8 185.2 97.5
Sep. 2019 175.5 185.2 97.7
Oct. 2019 176.8 184.7 97.7
Nov. 2019 180.1 186.9 97.4
Dec. 2019 181.7 188.2 97.3
Jan. 2020 183.5 189.6 97.0

Monthly change: minor increase from December 2019 to January 2020

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output saw a minor increase of 0.4 per cent from December 2019 to January 2020. Food and beverages, together with machinery and equipment contributed the most to pull up the overall manufacturing output, while fabricated metal products contributed the most to dampen the overall output increase.

Clear output decline in the Euro area in December 2019

Estimated figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, indicate that manufacturing output in the Euro area had a clear decline of 2.3 per cent from November to December 2019. In the same period, Norwegian manufacturing output was more or less unchanged.

In two of our neighboring countries, Sweden saw a production decline of 1.6 per cent, while Denmark experienced a strong production growth of as much as 6.6 per cent. The strong growth in Denmark must be seen in context with a decline of 5.2 per cent from October to November 2019.

For more key figures about the European business sector, see Eurostat’s information page about European economic statistics.

Figure 3. Index of production for manufacturing. Euro area and Norway (2015=100). Seasonally adjusted

Euro area Norway
Jan. 2014 96.7 101.9
Feb. 2014 97.6 101.8
Mar. 2014 97.1 102.5
Apr. 2014 98.5 102.1
May. 2014 97.3 102.5
June. 2014 96.8 104.7
July. 2014 98.0 103.5
Aug. 2014 95.9 106.5
Sep. 2014 97.0 102.7
Oct. 2014 96.9 105.8
Nov. 2014 96.7 104.6
Dec. 2014 98.0 104.9
Jan. 2015 97.5 102.5
Feb. 2015 99.7 102.7
Mar. 2015 100.5 106.3
Apr. 2015 99.9 101.7
May. 2015 100.3 99.7
June. 2015 100.7 100.6
July. 2015 100.7 96.5
Aug. 2015 99.8 99.0
Sep. 2015 100.2 99.5
Oct. 2015 99.9 97.0
Nov. 2015 100.1 97.9
Dec. 2015 100.9 96.6
Jan. 2016 103.9 96.4
Feb. 2016 101.5 96.7
Mar. 2016 100.4 98.7
Apr. 2016 101.7 95.8
May. 2016 100.2 96.2
June. 2016 101.6 94.3
July. 2016 101.3 95.3
Aug. 2016 101.6 92.1
Sep. 2016 101.6 94.1
Oct. 2016 102.7 93.9
Nov. 2016 103.2 94.0
Dec. 2016 102.8 94.4
Jan. 2017 102.0 95.8
Feb. 2017 103.1 95.6
Mar. 2017 103.3 95.5
Apr. 2017 104.0 95.7
May. 2017 104.2 95.7
June. 2017 103.9 95.8
July. 2017 105.6 96.1
Aug. 2017 106.2 92.6
Sep. 2017 105.9 95.6
Oct. 2017 105.6 95.7
Nov. 2017 108.6 96.2
Dec. 2017 108.7 97.1
Jan. 2018 107.9 95.4
Feb. 2018 105.6 95.9
Mar. 2018 105.8 96.3
Apr. 2018 106.1 96.6
May. 2018 107.2 96.1
June. 2018 107.0 96.7
July. 2018 106.0 97.1
Aug. 2018 107.1 97.7
Sep. 2018 106.5 97.2
Oct. 2018 106.7 98.6
Nov. 2018 105.5 98.9
Dec. 2018 105.2 99.3
Jan. 2019 105.9 99.2
Feb. 2019 106.3 99.0
Mar. 2019 106.1 97.9
Apr. 2019 105.2 100.5
May. 2019 105.9 100.7
June. 2019 104.3 99.7
July. 2019 103.9 100.7
Aug. 2019 104.3 99.6
Sep. 2019 104.5 100.3
Oct. 2019 103.5 100.3
Nov. 2019 103.5 99.8
Dec. 2019 101.1 99.9

Three-month change: Extraction of oil and natural gas contributed to a clear increase in the overall production index

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the total production index (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply saw a strong increase of as much as 5.1 per cent from November 2019 to January 2020 compared with the previous three-month period.

Extraction of crude petroleum increased by more than 12 per cent, which can partly be explained by production from a new oil field that opened recently. Furthermore, extraction of natural gas also saw a strong increase of 12 per cent. For more details about oil and gas extraction in this three-month period, see the press release from The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction, there was an output increase equivalent to 2.4 per cent from November 2019 to January 2020 compared with the previous three-month period. In the same period, mining and quarrying saw a decline of 1.3 per cent, while Norwegian electricity supply decreased by 6.6 per cent.

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 4. Production development. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Manufacturing Extraction, mining, manufacturing and elec. Extraction and related services
Jan. 2010 109.4 92.3 85.1
Feb. 2010 109.7 92.0 84.7
Mar. 2010 110.1 91.6 84.4
Apr. 2010 110.8 90.9 83.8
May. 2010 110.3 90.3 83.6
June. 2010 111.1 89.3 82.2
July. 2010 111.8 88.1 80.4
Aug. 2010 112.0 84.9 75.7
Sep. 2010 111.7 83.6 73.7
Oct. 2010 111.4 84.8 75.3
Nov. 2010 112.6 87.4 77.9
Dec. 2010 112.6 89.1 80.0
Jan. 2011 112.7 87.7 78.4
Feb. 2011 112.6 87.0 77.9
Mar. 2011 113.1 85.8 76.5
Apr. 2011 112.9 84.7 74.9
May. 2011 113.0 82.3 71.1
June. 2011 111.7 81.7 70.0
July. 2011 110.2 81.9 69.7
Aug. 2011 109.6 84.3 72.6
Sep. 2011 110.9 85.6 74.2
Oct. 2011 112.9 86.1 74.5
Nov. 2011 113.8 86.4 74.7
Dec. 2011 113.5 85.3 73.6
Jan. 2012 113.9 86.6 74.8
Feb. 2012 113.9 87.3 75.1
Mar. 2012 114.0 88.4 75.8
Apr. 2012 113.7 88.4 75.5
May. 2012 114.4 88.5 75.5
June. 2012 114.8 88.9 76.0
July. 2012 115.3 88.0 75.1
Aug. 2012 115.7 87.3 74.0
Sep. 2012 116.3 85.0 70.4
Oct. 2012 116.8 85.2 70.4
Nov. 2012 116.8 84.3 69.3
Dec. 2012 116.7 85.3 70.9
Jan. 2013 117.2 83.8 70.1
Feb. 2013 117.7 82.4 69.3
Mar. 2013 118.0 80.7 68.4
Apr. 2013 118.8 81.1 68.9
May. 2013 119.0 82.8 71.1
June. 2013 120.4 84.0 72.4
July. 2013 120.8 85.1 73.6
Aug. 2013 121.1 84.5 72.8
Sep. 2013 120.8 83.9 72.1
Oct. 2013 120.3 81.6 69.4
Nov. 2013 120.1 81.5 69.3
Dec. 2013 120.2 82.0 69.9
Jan. 2014 120.7 83.7 71.5
Feb. 2014 121.3 84.3 71.8
Mar. 2014 121.9 85.2 72.3
Apr. 2014 121.9 85.4 72.2
May. 2014 122.2 84.2 70.2
June. 2014 123.0 84.0 69.4
July. 2014 123.6 83.6 68.8
Aug. 2014 125.2 84.7 70.2
Sep. 2014 124.5 85.6 71.8
Oct. 2014 125.4 87.1 73.5
Nov. 2014 124.6 87.7 74.4
Dec. 2014 125.4 87.4 73.7
Jan. 2015 124.1 86.1 72.4
Feb. 2015 123.4 86.1 72.7
Mar. 2015 124.0 86.3 72.9
Apr. 2015 123.7 85.4 71.7
May. 2015 122.4 85.0 71.3
June. 2015 120.2 85.1 72.0
July. 2015 118.1 86.2 74.2
Aug. 2015 117.8 87.0 75.4
Sep. 2015 117.4 87.8 76.7
Oct. 2015 117.6 88.1 77.1
Nov. 2015 117.2 87.3 76.1
Dec. 2015 116.0 85.4 74.2
Jan. 2016 115.8 85.2 73.8
Feb. 2016 115.3 85.5 74.0
Mar. 2016 116.1 85.9 73.8
Apr. 2016 115.9 86.2 74.3
May. 2016 115.7 86.4 74.8
June. 2016 113.9 85.3 73.9
July. 2016 113.7 84.9 73.5
Aug. 2016 112.1 83.2 71.7
Sep. 2016 112.0 81.9 70.0
Oct. 2016 111.4 82.3 70.9
Nov. 2016 112.2 83.9 72.9
Dec. 2016 112.4 85.8 75.3
Jan. 2017 113.1 85.7 74.3
Feb. 2017 113.8 85.9 73.5
Mar. 2017 114.2 87.0 74.2
Apr. 2017 114.2 87.3 74.5
May. 2017 114.2 87.3 74.4
June. 2017 114.3 87.2 73.9
July. 2017 114.4 86.9 73.4
Aug. 2017 113.2 86.9 73.9
Sep. 2017 113.1 87.4 74.7
Oct. 2017 113.0 86.8 74.0
Nov. 2017 114.4 86.0 72.4
Dec. 2017 115.0 84.9 70.4
Jan. 2018 114.9 85.8 70.8
Feb. 2018 114.8 87.0 71.1
Mar. 2018 114.5 87.9 71.2
Apr. 2018 114.9 87.4 70.5
May. 2018 115.0 86.4 69.6
June. 2018 115.1 86.9 71.0
July. 2018 115.3 87.2 71.5
Aug. 2018 116.0 88.5 73.1
Sep. 2018 116.2 88.2 72.3
Oct. 2018 116.8 88.7 72.1
Nov. 2018 117.3 87.9 70.5
Dec. 2018 118.1 87.2 69.1
Jan. 2019 118.4 85.9 68.3
Feb. 2019 118.4 84.9 67.8
Mar. 2019 117.8 83.5 67.0
Apr. 2019 118.3 82.8 65.9
May. 2019 119.0 82.6 65.4
June. 2019 119.8 82.4 64.6
July. 2019 119.9 82.2 64.0
Aug. 2019 119.4 81.4 62.8
Sep. 2019 119.6 81.4 62.4
Oct. 2019 119.4 81.8 63.3
Nov. 2019 119.5 83.6 65.9
Dec. 2019 119.4 85.6 69.4
Jan. 2020 119.4 86.0 71.0

Updated weights in the PII in 2020

The weights in the index of industrial production (PII) are updated by the transition to a new year. The basis for the weights in the index of industrial production (PII) is value added at factor prices from the annual structure statistics for oil and gas, manufacturing, electricity and district heating for 2018. The value added figures are updated to the situation at the end of 2019 with rates of change from the quarterly national accounts, and volume figures from the Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within manufacturing, machinery and equipment together with repair and installation of machinery were the industries that had the largest increase in weights from 2019 to 2020. On the other hand, weights for basic metals, and building of ships, boats and oil platforms had the largest decline from 2019 to 2020. For the total aggregate (PII), the weight for manufacturing decreased, while the weight for extraction and related services increased.

Productivity factors

As of January 2020, updated productivity factors will be included in the calculation of the index of industrial production (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply. The factors are based on annual volume change in GDP per hour worked for the relevant industries and are an average from the last five years. This information is collected from the annual national accounts.

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