Unchanged manufacturing output in the third quarter

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Norwegian manufacturing output had a marginal decrease of 0.1 per cent in the third quarter of 2019 compared to the second, according to seasonally-adjusted figures. From August to September manufacturing output saw an increase, but figures for the long-term trend indicate that the production increase has leveled out.

Written by: Anel Finci

The index level for Norwegian manufacturing in the third quarter amounted to 119.7 (2005=100). The corresponding figure for the previous quarter was 119.8. After steady growth since May 2018, the long term trend for the recent months shows that the output increase has leveled out (see figure 1).

Figure 1. Production development in manufacturing. Seasonally adjusted and smoothed seasonally adjusted figures. 2005=100

Smoothed seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted
Jan. 2014 121.0 121.7
Feb. 2014 121.5 121.5
Mar. 2014 122.0 122.4
Apr. 2014 122.5 121.8
May. 2014 123.1 122.3
June. 2014 123.8 125.0
July. 2014 124.6 123.6
Aug. 2014 125.2 127.1
Sep. 2014 125.6 122.7
Oct. 2014 125.5 126.3
Nov. 2014 125.2 124.8
Dec. 2014 124.5 125.2
Jan. 2015 123.7 122.4
Feb. 2015 122.7 122.7
Mar. 2015 121.8 126.9
Apr. 2015 121.0 121.4
May. 2015 120.2 119.0
June. 2015 119.5 120.2
July. 2015 118.9 115.2
Aug. 2015 118.2 118.1
Sep. 2015 117.6 118.8
Oct. 2015 116.9 115.8
Nov. 2015 116.3 116.9
Dec. 2015 115.8 115.3
Jan. 2016 115.4 115.1
Feb. 2016 115.1 115.4
Mar. 2016 114.8 117.9
Apr. 2016 114.5 114.3
May. 2016 114.1 114.8
June. 2016 113.6 112.6
July. 2016 113.1 113.9
Aug. 2016 112.6 109.9
Sep. 2016 112.4 112.4
Oct. 2016 112.4 112.1
Nov. 2016 112.6 112.1
Dec. 2016 113.0 112.7
Jan. 2017 113.5 114.3
Feb. 2017 113.9 114.2
Mar. 2017 114.2 114.2
Apr. 2017 114.4 114.2
May. 2017 114.4 114.3
June. 2017 114.4 114.4
July. 2017 114.3 114.8
Aug. 2017 114.4 110.6
Sep. 2017 114.5 114.1
Oct. 2017 114.5 114.3
Nov. 2017 114.6 114.7
Dec. 2017 114.7 115.9
Jan. 2018 114.7 113.9
Feb. 2018 114.8 114.5
Mar. 2018 114.8 115.1
Apr. 2018 114.9 115.3
May. 2018 115.2 114.7
June. 2018 115.5 115.4
July. 2018 115.9 116.0
Aug. 2018 116.4 116.7
Sep. 2018 116.9 116.2
Oct. 2018 117.4 117.8
Nov. 2018 117.8 117.8
Dec. 2018 118.1 118.5
Jan. 2019 118.4 118.4
Feb. 2019 118.7 118.1
Mar. 2019 119.0 117.0
Apr. 2019 119.3 119.9
May. 2019 119.6 120.3
June. 2019 119.7 119.1
July. 2019 119.7 120.3
Aug. 2019 119.7 118.9
Sep. 2019 119.8 119.8

Three-month change: strong output increase in oil platforms, low activity in other petroleum-related industries

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing output decreased marginally with 0.1 per cent in the third quarter of 2019 compared with the second quarter. Even though total manufacturing output was more or less unchanged, there were clear differences on industry-level. Basic chemicals had a strong output increase of 8.4 per cent in the third quarter. This growth must be seen in context with several maintenance shutdowns in the previous quarter. Ships, boats and oil platforms contributed also positively due to high activity among producers of oil platforms.

On the other hand, other branches within petroleum-related manufacturing such as computer and electrical equipment, and machinery and equipment experienced a production fall in this period. These two industries decreased 3.1 and 3.3 per cent respectively.

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 2. Indicator for petroleum-related industries. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Petroleum-related manufacturing and support activities Petroleum-related manufacturing Manufacturing ex. petroleum-related industries
Jan. 2009 156.2 96.7
Feb. 2009 157.0 94.9
Mar. 2009 157.5 93.3
Apr. 2009 157.1 92.1
May. 2009 156.6 91.0
June. 2009 154.8 90.3
July. 2009 153.5 90.2
Aug. 2009 152.8 90.7
Sep. 2009 153.5 92.0
Oct. 2009 153.8 92.9
Nov. 2009 153.2 93.8
Dec. 2009 151.7 94.3
Jan. 2010 143.9 151.0 94.7
Feb. 2010 143.2 150.6 95.3
Mar. 2010 144.9 151.4 95.9
Apr. 2010 145.8 151.9 96.5
May. 2010 143.4 151.6 96.0
June. 2010 143.1 152.3 96.7
July. 2010 142.3 152.3 98.2
Aug. 2010 142.2 152.0 98.6
Sep. 2010 143.0 151.4 98.5
Oct. 2010 144.8 151.2 97.7
Nov. 2010 148.2 152.6 99.0
Dec. 2010 151.0 152.7 99.0
Jan. 2011 149.9 153.0 99.0
Feb. 2011 149.5 153.1 98.8
Mar. 2011 147.3 153.3 99.6
Apr. 2011 148.9 151.8 99.6
May. 2011 150.6 152.7 99.4
June. 2011 152.3 151.9 97.8
July. 2011 154.2 153.0 95.7
Aug. 2011 155.9 154.5 94.2
Sep. 2011 159.1 158.7 94.5
Oct. 2011 161.2 163.3 95.6
Nov. 2011 162.8 164.7 96.3
Dec. 2011 164.7 166.6 95.3
Jan. 2012 167.1 167.9 95.3
Feb. 2012 169.5 168.4 95.2
Mar. 2012 167.6 168.0 95.5
Apr. 2012 164.7 166.2 95.6
May. 2012 164.7 167.9 95.9
June. 2012 168.2 169.3 95.9
July. 2012 170.5 172.3 95.6
Aug. 2012 172.8 174.4 95.4
Sep. 2012 173.5 177.0 95.4
Oct. 2012 177.6 179.7 95.0
Nov. 2012 178.1 180.9 94.6
Dec. 2012 179.1 181.6 94.4
Jan. 2013 180.3 183.2 94.5
Feb. 2013 182.5 186.1 94.2
Mar. 2013 186.7 188.2 93.8
Apr. 2013 187.8 191.5 93.4
May. 2013 189.3 193.5 93.0
June. 2013 190.8 197.6 93.4
July. 2013 193.8 198.7 93.9
Aug. 2013 194.1 198.2 94.6
Sep. 2013 193.8 196.9 94.6
Oct. 2013 191.5 195.0 94.6
Nov. 2013 193.0 195.2 94.1
Dec. 2013 194.0 195.2 94.2
Jan. 2014 196.4 196.8 94.2
Feb. 2014 196.9 198.6 94.3
Mar. 2014 196.2 199.7 94.1
Apr. 2014 195.8 199.7 94.3
May. 2014 197.2 200.0 94.6
June. 2014 200.0 203.2 95.2
July. 2014 199.2 207.7 95.0
Aug. 2014 201.7 213.6 95.1
Sep. 2014 201.4 213.7 94.1
Oct. 2014 206.6 214.5 94.3
Nov. 2014 204.5 212.8 93.9
Dec. 2014 203.7 214.9 94.4
Jan. 2015 200.0 212.9 93.6
Feb. 2015 197.2 210.0 93.5
Mar. 2015 195.4 207.3 94.4
Apr. 2015 193.8 204.4 94.7
May. 2015 188.9 201.2 94.4
June. 2015 184.6 195.8 93.8
July. 2015 180.6 192.4 92.7
Aug. 2015 179.3 189.7 93.1
Sep. 2015 177.9 188.2 93.0
Oct. 2015 174.2 185.4 93.8
Nov. 2015 172.1 182.7 94.1
Dec. 2015 168.2 178.3 93.9
Jan. 2016 165.6 176.8 94.1
Feb. 2016 165.0 174.4 94.2
Mar. 2016 165.1 174.3 95.0
Apr. 2016 163.6 172.5 95.2
May. 2016 160.5 170.9 95.5
June. 2016 157.0 167.3 94.8
July. 2016 157.6 167.1 94.9
Aug. 2016 153.4 160.7 94.8
Sep. 2016 152.3 159.4 95.0
Oct. 2016 149.8 156.9 94.9
Nov. 2016 151.4 160.1 94.9
Dec. 2016 151.6 161.1 95.0
Jan. 2017 151.2 159.2 96.5
Feb. 2017 149.9 158.5 97.6
Mar. 2017 146.5 154.5 98.9
Apr. 2017 146.8 155.6 98.6
May. 2017 147.5 156.0 98.5
June. 2017 149.6 158.0 98.2
July. 2017 149.4 156.4 98.9
Aug. 2017 147.3 154.3 97.9
Sep. 2017 147.6 154.8 97.7
Oct. 2017 146.7 156.0 97.1
Nov. 2017 149.6 158.8 98.1
Dec. 2017 150.5 159.4 98.9
Jan. 2018 151.0 159.2 98.8
Feb. 2018 150.9 159.6 98.5
Mar. 2018 151.8 161.4 97.4
Apr. 2018 152.4 162.2 97.8
May. 2018 153.6 161.7 98.0
June. 2018 154.1 160.5 98.5
July. 2018 153.6 160.8 98.7
Aug. 2018 154.8 162.8 98.9
Sep. 2018 154.6 164.8 98.6
Oct. 2018 158.5 166.5 98.8
Nov. 2018 160.2 168.7 98.8
Dec. 2018 162.1 171.0 99.5
Jan. 2019 164.4 174.3 99.0
Feb. 2019 166.9 176.5 98.6
Mar. 2019 168.8 177.6 97.7
Apr. 2019 171.5 180.0 97.7
May. 2019 173.5 182.9 97.9
June. 2019 175.7 185.4 98.0
July. 2019 175.2 186.5 97.8
Aug. 2019 174.0 185.3 97.4
Sep. 2019 175.5 185.1 97.6

Monthly change: increase from August to September

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, manufacturing saw a production increase of 0.8 per cent from August to September 2019. Basic chemicals together with furniture and other manufacturing contributed the most to the overall growth in this period. 

Minor increase in the Euro area, clear fall in Norway in August

Estimated figures from Eurostat, the EU’s statistical office, indicate that manufacturing output in the Euro area had a minor increase of 0.4 per cent from July to August 2019. In the same period, Norwegian manufacturing saw a clear production decline of 1.2 per cent.  

In Sweden, manufacturing output was unchanged in this period, while Denmark experienced a clear decrease of 1.1 per cent.

Figure 3. Index of production for manufacturing. Euro area and Norway (2015=100). Seasonally adjusted

Euro area Norway
Jan. 2014 96.7 101.9
Feb. 2014 97.6 101.8
Mar. 2014 97.1 102.5
Apr. 2014 98.5 102.1
May. 2014 97.3 102.5
June. 2014 96.8 104.7
July. 2014 98.0 103.5
Aug. 2014 95.9 106.5
Sep. 2014 97.0 102.8
Oct. 2014 96.9 105.8
Nov. 2014 96.7 104.6
Dec. 2014 98.0 104.9
Jan. 2015 97.5 102.5
Feb. 2015 99.7 102.7
Mar. 2015 100.6 106.3
Apr. 2015 99.9 101.7
May. 2015 100.3 99.7
June. 2015 100.7 100.6
July. 2015 100.7 96.5
Aug. 2015 99.9 98.9
Sep. 2015 100.2 99.5
Oct. 2015 99.9 97.0
Nov. 2015 100.0 97.9
Dec. 2015 100.7 96.6
Jan. 2016 103.9 96.4
Feb. 2016 101.5 96.7
Mar. 2016 100.4 98.8
Apr. 2016 101.7 95.8
May. 2016 100.3 96.2
June. 2016 101.6 94.4
July. 2016 101.3 95.4
Aug. 2016 101.7 92.1
Sep. 2016 101.6 94.1
Oct. 2016 102.7 93.9
Nov. 2016 103.2 93.9
Dec. 2016 102.6 94.4
Jan. 2017 102.0 95.7
Feb. 2017 103.1 95.6
Mar. 2017 103.4 95.6
Apr. 2017 104.0 95.7
May. 2017 104.2 95.7
June. 2017 103.9 95.8
July. 2017 105.6 96.1
Aug. 2017 106.2 92.7
Sep. 2017 106.1 95.6
Oct. 2017 105.6 95.7
Nov. 2017 108.5 96.1
Dec. 2017 108.3 97.0
Jan. 2018 107.8 95.4
Feb. 2018 105.6 95.9
Mar. 2018 105.8 96.4
Apr. 2018 106.1 96.6
May. 2018 107.2 96.1
June. 2018 107.0 96.7
July. 2018 106.1 97.2
Aug. 2018 107.3 97.8
Sep. 2018 106.9 97.2
Oct. 2018 106.8 98.6
Nov. 2018 105.4 98.7
Dec. 2018 104.4 99.2
Jan. 2019 105.8 99.1
Feb. 2019 106.3 98.9
Mar. 2019 106.1 98.1
Apr. 2019 105.3 100.5
May. 2019 106.1 100.8
June. 2019 104.5 99.8
July. 2019 104.1 100.8
Aug. 2019 104.5 99.6

Three-month change:  low gas extraction leads to a clear fall in total industrial production (PII)

According to seasonally-adjusted figures, the total production index (PII) covering extraction, mining, manufacturing and electricity supply saw a clear fall of 2.1 per cent in the third quarter of 2019 compared with the second quarter. Extraction of crude petroleum increased with almost 11 per cent, while extraction of natural gas decreased strongly with as much as 19 per cent. For more details about oil and gas extraction in this quarter, see the press release from The Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

Within support activities for petroleum and natural gas extraction, there was a clear output increase equivalent to 4.1 per cent in the third quarter compared with the previous quarter. The activity was particularly high among suppliers of drilling services. This growth is partly related to an investment increase in the Norwegian oil and gas sector. 

In the same period, both mining and quarrying, and Norwegian electricity supply saw a clear output growth of 16.4 and 6.3 per cent respectively.

1 The index value for period m is the average of period m, m-1 and m-2.

Figure 4. Production development. Seasonally adjusted. Three-month moving average¹. 2005=100

Manufacturing Extraction, mining, manufacturing and elec. Extraction and related services
Jan. 2009 112.1 96.9 91.1
Feb. 2009 110.9 97.3 92.1
Mar. 2009 109.8 96.5 91.3
Apr. 2009 108.9 96.0 90.9
May. 2009 107.6 93.4 87.7
June. 2009 106.7 92.2 86.6
July. 2009 106.1 91.5 86.1
Aug. 2009 106.6 92.2 86.9
Sep. 2009 107.7 93.2 87.6
Oct. 2009 108.5 93.3 87.0
Nov. 2009 109.2 93.4 86.8
Dec. 2009 109.3 92.5 85.4
Jan. 2010 109.4 92.3 85.1
Feb. 2010 109.7 92.0 84.7
Mar. 2010 110.1 91.6 84.4
Apr. 2010 110.8 90.9 83.8
May. 2010 110.3 90.3 83.6
June. 2010 111.1 89.3 82.2
July. 2010 111.8 88.1 80.4
Aug. 2010 112.0 84.9 75.7
Sep. 2010 111.7 83.6 73.7
Oct. 2010 111.4 84.8 75.3
Nov. 2010 112.6 87.4 77.9
Dec. 2010 112.6 89.1 80.0
Jan. 2011 112.7 87.7 78.4
Feb. 2011 112.6 87.0 77.9
Mar. 2011 113.1 85.8 76.5
Apr. 2011 112.9 84.7 74.9
May. 2011 113.0 82.3 71.1
June. 2011 111.7 81.7 70.0
July. 2011 110.2 81.9 69.7
Aug. 2011 109.6 84.3 72.6
Sep. 2011 110.9 85.6 74.2
Oct. 2011 112.9 86.1 74.5
Nov. 2011 113.8 86.4 74.7
Dec. 2011 113.5 85.3 73.6
Jan. 2012 113.9 86.6 74.8
Feb. 2012 113.9 87.3 75.1
Mar. 2012 114.0 88.4 75.8
Apr. 2012 113.7 88.4 75.5
May. 2012 114.4 88.5 75.5
June. 2012 114.8 88.9 76.0
July. 2012 115.3 88.0 75.1
Aug. 2012 115.7 87.3 74.0
Sep. 2012 116.3 85.0 70.4
Oct. 2012 116.8 85.2 70.4
Nov. 2012 116.8 84.3 69.3
Dec. 2012 116.7 85.3 70.9
Jan. 2013 117.2 83.8 70.1
Feb. 2013 117.7 82.4 69.3
Mar. 2013 118.0 80.7 68.4
Apr. 2013 118.8 81.1 68.9
May. 2013 119.0 82.8 71.1
June. 2013 120.4 84.0 72.4
July. 2013 120.8 85.1 73.6
Aug. 2013 121.1 84.5 72.8
Sep. 2013 120.8 83.9 72.1
Oct. 2013 120.3 81.6 69.4
Nov. 2013 120.1 81.5 69.3
Dec. 2013 120.2 82.0 69.9
Jan. 2014 120.7 83.7 71.5
Feb. 2014 121.3 84.3 71.8
Mar. 2014 121.9 85.3 72.4
Apr. 2014 121.9 85.4 72.3
May. 2014 122.2 84.2 70.3
June. 2014 123.0 84.0 69.5
July. 2014 123.6 83.7 69.0
Aug. 2014 125.2 84.9 70.4
Sep. 2014 124.5 85.3 71.3
Oct. 2014 125.4 86.7 73.0
Nov. 2014 124.6 87.4 74.0
Dec. 2014 125.4 87.5 73.9
Jan. 2015 124.1 86.2 72.6
Feb. 2015 123.4 86.1 72.8
Mar. 2015 124.0 86.4 73.0
Apr. 2015 123.7 85.5 71.8
May. 2015 122.4 85.0 71.4
June. 2015 120.2 85.1 72.2
July. 2015 118.1 86.3 74.3
Aug. 2015 117.8 87.1 75.5
Sep. 2015 117.4 87.4 76.0
Oct. 2015 117.6 87.6 76.4
Nov. 2015 117.2 86.9 75.7
Dec. 2015 116.0 85.6 74.5
Jan. 2016 115.8 85.5 74.1
Feb. 2016 115.3 85.5 74.1
Mar. 2016 116.1 85.9 73.9
Apr. 2016 115.9 86.2 74.4
May. 2016 115.7 86.5 74.8
June. 2016 113.9 85.4 74.0
July. 2016 113.8 85.0 73.6
Aug. 2016 112.1 83.3 71.9
Sep. 2016 112.1 81.4 69.3
Oct. 2016 111.5 81.9 70.3
Nov. 2016 112.2 83.7 72.6
Dec. 2016 112.3 86.1 75.9
Jan. 2017 113.0 86.0 74.7
Feb. 2017 113.7 86.0 73.7
Mar. 2017 114.2 87.0 74.2
Apr. 2017 114.2 87.3 74.6
May. 2017 114.2 87.3 74.4
June. 2017 114.3 87.3 74.1
July. 2017 114.5 87.0 73.5
Aug. 2017 113.3 87.0 73.9
Sep. 2017 113.2 86.8 73.7
Oct. 2017 113.0 86.3 73.1
Nov. 2017 114.4 85.8 72.1
Dec. 2017 115.0 85.3 71.1
Jan. 2018 114.8 86.2 71.4
Feb. 2018 114.8 87.0 71.2
Mar. 2018 114.5 87.9 71.2
Apr. 2018 115.0 87.4 70.4
May. 2018 115.0 86.4 69.5
June. 2018 115.1 87.0 71.1
July. 2018 115.4 87.3 71.6
Aug. 2018 116.0 88.5 73.1
Sep. 2018 116.3 87.6 71.3
Oct. 2018 116.9 88.2 71.2
Nov. 2018 117.3 87.8 70.2
Dec. 2018 118.0 87.7 69.8
Jan. 2019 118.2 86.3 69.0
Feb. 2019 118.3 85.0 68.0
Mar. 2019 117.8 83.5 67.0
Apr. 2019 118.3 82.8 65.9
May. 2019 119.1 82.6 65.4
June. 2019 119.8 82.5 64.8
July. 2019 119.9 82.3 64.2
Aug. 2019 119.4 81.4 62.8
Sep. 2019 119.7 80.8 61.5

 

 

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