33464_not-searchable
/en/energi-og-industri/statistikker/kbar/arkiv
33464
A weak quarter for manufacturing industry
statistikk
2000-04-27T10:00:00.000Z
Energy and manufacturing;National accounts and business cycles
en
kbar, Business tendency survey for manufacturing, mining and quarrying, actual and expected development, production, employment, new orders, market prices, resource shortage, bottlenecks, capacity utilisation, industrial confidence indicatorBusiness cycles , Manufacturing, mining and quarrying , National accounts and business cycles, Energy and manufacturing
false

Business tendency survey for manufacturing, mining and quarrying, Q1 2000

Content

Published:

This is an archived release.

Go to latest release

A weak quarter for manufacturing industry

The business situation for manufacturing industries seems to remain in the end of last year weak position. The first quarter production figures indicates a minor fall and a somewhat larger set back for the new orders. Large differences exist between the manufacturing industries.

After a long period presenting growth in production and demand the last year business situation turned out noticeable weaker giving the first signs of the end of the current business cycle. The results from the 1st Quarter survey this year did not provide substantial positive signs to the manufacturing industry. The manufacturing leaders indicate that production growth and capacity utilisation remains low compared with the 1998 situation. The judgement of the order situation indicates a reduction in both new orders and the stocks of orders.

The overall picture for manufacturing industries are highly influenced by the large set back in the North Sea oil and gas investments last year especially hitting the engineering industries. However, more than 50 per cent of the manufacturing enterprises report that weak demand and/or increased competition are the important bottlenecks limiting production.

For some of the industries the current business situation seem better. The traditional export industries - pulp, paper and paper products, basic chemicals and basic metals, non-ferrous - report having growth in production, high capacity utilisation and an improved order situation. The improved order situation seem to reflect a substantial growth in the prices on pulp and metals during the last months.

Valuation of trades in the 1st quarter and the short term outlook
Kind-of-activity Prospects Background
Food products, beverages and tobacco +(-) Minor changes in production; the capacity utilization is still low - mainly restricted by lack of demand in domestic markets; parts of the industry are struggling with lack of raw material (processing of fish); prices improved in the domestic markets. Positive short term outlook.
Wood and products of wood + Another positive quarter for the trade; growth in production, but weaker than last quarter; new orders from domestic markets improved; for a large part of the trade the lack of demand seem to be the major bottleneck; prices improved. The outlook for 2. quarter and the next 12 months are considered as positive.
Pulp, paper and paper products + A moderate growth in production; capacity utilisation is stabel at a high level; capacity is the most important limiting factor for production; positive upturn in demand and stocks of orders; the prices have improved. Optimism connected to the short term outlook.
Basic chemicals + Growth in production; capacity utilisation is improving; capacity is an important limiting factor for production; noticeable growth in new orders; clear positive changes in prices - from a low level. Outlooks for 2. quarter are considered as good.
Basic metals, non-ferrous ++(-) The activity is high comprising growth in production and high utilisation of capacity; a majority of enterprises operates at maximum capacity level; an increase in new orders reflects a strong growth in export prices; stocks of products vs sales are considered large. The 2. quarter outlook indicates growth in production and demand from exports.
Engineering, total --(+) An overall picture characterising most engineering industry branches is a weak demand in the domestic markets.
Metal products - Few positive signs for the branch, production growth has been weak and capacity utilisation low; the domestic demand is still considered to be low, somewhat better on export; 8 of 10 enterprises are facing problems with demand and/or comptetiton - especially in the domestic markets; prices are still low. Does not expect any improvements in the short run.
Machinery and equipment -(+) The current situation is troublesome; production growth remain to be negative and capacity utilisation are low; structural challenges with a weak demand and/or increased competition in the markets; stocks of orders are low. An expected increase in new orders seem to be the basis for a moderate short term optimism.
Electrical and optical equipment - A moderate growth in production and capacity utilisation is low; a negative trend in domestic demand and stocks of orders; some few positive but weak signs from the export markets. Does not expect any substantial changes on production and demand in the short run.
Offshore-related activity incl. transport industry included -- Activity has been going down through the last year due to large reductions in North Sea offshore investments; the lowest capacity utilisation in many years; a cut back in employees has been observed and more seem to come; stocks of orders are reduced. Only few positive signs in the short run.
In the column for Prospects a total evaluation of the present situation and expected short term developments is marked with symbols + and -. The following codes and constellations are used: ++
+
~
-
--
-(+)
+/- 		Very good
Good
Stabel
Weak
Quite weak
Weak, but with certain positive indications
A situation where the + and - factors even out.