Business tendency survey for manufacturing, mining and quarrying, Q3 2001

For the manufacturing industry as whole the 3. quarter is valued negatively. Production is reported to be about unchanged, and employment is reduced together with new orders received from both home and export markets. The total stock of orders is also reduced. The development in the level of prices has been positive in the home markets, but clearly negative for export markets. The capacity utilisation was about unchanged at 80 per cent.

The general outlooks for the forthcoming quarter are valued as positive, but the pertinent indicator has declined somewhat compared with results from the previous quarter. A great number of leaders report that they are reducing their plans for gross capital investments. It is further expected a decline in the level of employment.

The results show no clear signs that the terror attacks in the USA or the ongoing military operations have influenced the manufacturing leaders responses significantly. This may be because a lot of the results were received shortly after the terror attack, and that few of the leaders could see the consequences for their own sector. We do not rule out that the recent events might give a larger impact in the long run.

Intermediate goods: Demand down

Sectors producing intermediate goods (pulp, paper and paper products, chemical industry, basic metals and others) show a number of negative signs. The level of production was lower in the 3. quarter, together with new orders received and employment. The leaders report shortage in demand, and a lot of these sectors experience a reduced level of prices of their products in the export markets. The capacity utilisation is about 80 per cent, which is about unchanged compared with the previous quarter.

The general outlooks for the 4. quarter are judged as worse. This is substantiated by expectations of reduction in the level prices, and some reduction in new orders received from export markets. It is also expected a decline in employment. Shortage in demand is viewed as the largest factor limiting production.

Capital goods: Increased production

Sectors producing capital goods (metal products, machinery and equipment, offshore-related activity and others) have increased the level of production in the 3. quarter. There has also been an increase in employment and capacity utilisation, now 83 per cent. Lack of qualified labour has been an important factor in limiting production, and this is also expected to be the case for the 4. quarter. The level of new orders received from the export markets was about unchanged in the 3. quarter, and in many of these sectors lower stocks of orders than normal for exports are received.

The general outlooks for the coming quarter are valued by many of the leaders as better than for the 3. quarter. Production is expected to rise together with a rise in new orders received and in the level of prices at the home market. The level of export prices is expected to be stable.

Consumer goods: Reduced employment expected

In the 3. quarter production was about unchanged for sectors producing consumer goods (food industry, publishing, pharmaceutical industry and others). Further, there are reports of stable level of new orders received and an increase in the level of prices both in the home and export markets in the 3. quarter.

Fewer leaders report that lack of raw materials is a problem. Furthermore, it is pointed out that demand at the home markets is a limiting factor for production.

For the 4. quarter the general outlooks are valued to be about unchanged, and a moderate growth in production and demand is expected. It is also expected a reduction in employment within these sectors as a whole. An increase in the level of prices at home and export markets is expected in the 4. quarter.