Content
Published:
This is an archived release.
Indications of a rise in employment
Norwegian industrial managers report of moderate growth in employment in the second half of 2005. A rising demand for qualified labour within sectors producing capital goods seems to explain this result.
The manufacturing industry experienced an increase in output and capacity utilisation in the fourth quarter of 2005. A rise in new orders from home and export markets causes total stocks of orders to grow, and market prices seems to be higher than in the third quarter. The decline in employment seems to be levelling out in the second quarter of 2005. The results from the third and the fourth quarter indicate a rise in the total level of employment. An increase in the number of managers who point at lack of qualified labour as factor that limits production seems to support this result. The number of working months covered by the current stock of orders is somewhat higher than the corresponding figure for 2004, and fewer managers report that they experience difficulties related to fierce competition and lack of demand. Average capacity utilisation is estimated to be about 82 per cent.
A growing number of managers consider the general outlook in the short term to be better. Expectations of a rise in market prices combined with further growth in new orders support this result. The industrial confidence indicator1 is estimated to be 14 (net figure seasonally adjusted). This result is a strong indication of a further increase in output in the first quarter of 2006. For international comparisons, go to EUROSTAT (EU) and The Swedish National Institute of Economic Research (Sweden).
Intermediate goods: Improved conditions in export markets
Sectors producing intermediate goods (pulp, paper and paper products, chemical industry, basic metals and others) report of an increase in output, capacity utilisation and employment in the fourth quarter of 2005. Steady growth in new orders from the home market causes total stock of orders to rise, and market prices seems to be higher than in the third quarter. There is a slight increase in the number of managers that point at failing demand as a factor that limits production. The number of working months covered by the current stock of orders is somewhat higher than recorded in the fourth quarter of 2004, and average capacity utilisation is still as high as 85 per cent.
A growing number of managers consider the general outlook in the short term to be better. Expectations of a rise in export prices and in new orders from export markets support this view.
Capital goods: Rising demand for qualified labour
The results from producers of capital goods (metal products, machinery and equipment, offshore-related activity and others) indicate considerable growth in output and capacity utilisation. There seems to be a significant rise in employment, and lack of qualified labour may already be a problem within these sectors. Steady growth in new orders from home and export markets causes total stock of orders to rise. The number of working months covered by the current stock of orders is estimated to 7.8 and has now reached the same high level as recorded back in 1997. Average capacity utilisation is estimated to about 86 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2005.
A great number of managers consider the general outlook in the short term to be better. Positive expectations for the development in new orders and market prices support this view.
Consumer goods: Less decline in employment
The results from sectors producing consumer goods (food industry, publishing, pharmaceutical industry and others) indicate that total output was higher than in the third quarter. Stabile growth in home market demand is the driving force behind this development. Home market prices continue to rise, while export prices seems to be more or less unchanged. The decline in employment shows signs of levelling out in the fourth quarter. Average capacity utilisation is estimated to about 78 per cent.
A growing number of managers consider the general outlook in the short term to be better. Expectations of a further rise in output and demand support this result.
1The industrial confidence indicator and links to international comparisons are described in the press release Q3 2003.
| Assessment of industries in Q4 and the short-term outlook |
| Industry | Prospects | Background | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food products, beverages and tobacco | + | Growth in output and capacity utilisation in Q4. Reduced level of employment. Demand from the home market has increased, while demand from the export market has declined. Higher prices. General outlook for Q1 is judged as better by many managers, and further growth in output and prices are expected. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Wood and products of wood | ++ | Higher levels of production, capacity utilisation and employment. Growth in total stock of orders and improved market prices. The general outlook is considered as better by many managers. Further growth in output and employment are expected. New orders and market prices are also expected to rise in Q1. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Pulp, paper and paper products | +/- | Growth in output and capacity utilisation in Q4. Decline in employment, new orders and export prices. Many managers consider the general outlook for the forthcoming quarter to be better and a higher level of investments is expected. Output, total stock of orders and market prices are also expected to rise. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Basic chemicals | + | High level of capacity utilisation and growth in output. Increased level of new orders from the export markets. Decline in employment and new orders received from the home market. Improved market prices. General outlook for Q1 is judged as better by many managers. This view is supported by expectations of growth in output, new orders and market prices. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Basic metals, non-ferrous | +(-) | Decline in output, capacity utilisation and employment. Growth in new orders from the export market and higher prices. The general outlook is considered better, and output and capacity utilisation are expected to rise in Q1. Expectations of a rise in new orders from export markets and home and export prices. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Engineering, total | ++ | The engineering industry reports of growth in output, capacity utilisation and employment. Total stock of orders is higher than in Q3 and market prices are rising. There is an increase in the number of managers pointing at lack of qualified labour as a limiting factor for production. Many managers judge the general outlook to be better, and further growth in output, employment,new orders and market prices are expected. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Metal products | ++ | Growth in output, capacity utilisation, employment and new orders. Market prices seems to have risen in Q4. Many managers point at lack of qualified labour as a limiting factor for production. General outlook is positive and a further increase in production, employment and new orders is expected. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Machinery and equipment | ++ | Many managers report of a rise in output, employment and new orders received in Q4. Improved market prices. The average number of working months covered by the current stock of orders has increased, and the general outlook is considered as better by many managers. Further increase in output, employment and the total stock of orders is expected in Q1. Rising prices in home and export markets is also expected. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Electrical and optical equipment | ++ | Growth in production, capacity utilisation, employment and new orders. Higher prices in home and export market. An increasing number of managers report that lack of qualified labour is a limiting factor for production. Many managers still consider the general outlook to be better, and further growth in output, new orders and prices are expected in Q1. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Offshore-related activity incl. transport industry included | ++ | High level of activity and a rise in new orders. The average number of working months covered by the current stock of orders is the highest since 1997. Growth in employment and capacity utilisation. Lack of qualified labour. Home market prices are rising, while export prices are falling. There are reports of large new orders and expectations of further growth in output in Q1. General outlook is judged as better by many managers. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| In the column for Prospects a total evaluation of the present situation and expected short-term developments is marked with the symbols + and -. The following codes and constellations are used: |
++
+ ~ - -- -(+) +/- |
Very good
Good Stable Weak Quite weak Weak, but with certain positive indications A situation where the + and - factors even out. |
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Additional information
The statistics provide current data on the business cycle for manufacturing, mining and quarrying by collecting business leaders’ assessments of the economic situation and the short term outlook.
Contact
-
Edvard Andreassen
E-mail: edvard.andreassen@ssb.no
tel.: (+47) 40 90 23 32
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Ståle Mæland
E-mail: stale.maeland@ssb.no
tel.: (+47) 95 05 98 88