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84572
Improved conditions in domestic markets
statistikk
2012-04-27T10:00:00.000Z
Energy and manufacturing;National accounts and business cycles
en
kbar, Business tendency survey for manufacturing, mining and quarrying, actual and expected development, production, employment, new orders, market prices, resource shortage, bottlenecks, capacity utilisation, industrial confidence indicatorBusiness cycles , Manufacturing, mining and quarrying , National accounts and business cycles, Energy and manufacturing
false

Business tendency survey for manufacturing, mining and quarrying, Q1 2012

Content

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Improved conditions in domestic markets

Norwegian industrial managers experienced a fall in new orders from export markets, but high demand from the domestic market compensates for the decline. This is expected to continue in the second quarter of 2012.

Bottlenecks in production in current quarter. Smoothed seasonally adjusted. Q1 2005-Q1 2012

According to the Business tendency survey, the Norwegian manufacturing industry experienced a steady growth in total output and a further rise in employment. Improved conditions in domestic markets explain this development. However, sectors that depend on export experienced a further decline in new orders and market prices. The number of working months covered by the current stock of orders was somewhat lower than in the corresponding period the previous year, but average capacity utilisation rose to 79.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2012. This result is close to the historic average for the manufacturing industry. International comparisons of average capacity utilisation are available from EUROSTAT .

Prospects of further improvement in domestic markets

The general short-term outlook (Q2 2012) is considered as positive, and the investments seem to be growing. Prospects of improved conditions in domestic markets explain these results. The industrial confidence indicator rose to 9 (seasonally-adjusted net figure) in the first quarter of 2012. International comparisons of the industrial confidence indicator are available from EUROSTAT (EU), the Swedish National Institute of Economic Research (Sweden) and Statistics Denmark .

Industrial confidence indicator. Q1 2005-Q1 2012

Poor conditions in export markets

Sectors producing intermediate goods (wood and wood products, paper and paper products, non-metallic mineral products, basic metals etc.) experienced moderate growth in total output and stable development in employment. The supply of new orders from domestic markets continued to grow, while conditions were poor in export markets. Average capacity utilisation is estimated at 80.8 per cent in the first quarter of 2012. The result lies below the historic average. The number of working months covered by the current stock of orders was somewhat lower than in the first quarter of 2011.

The general short-term outlook (Q2 2012) is considered to be positive, but the result lies close to neutral.

Higher demand from domestic markets

Sectors producing capital goods (machinery and equipment, ships, boats and oil platforms, repair and installation etc.) experienced higher output and a rise in employment. A further increase in the supply of new orders from domestic markets explains this development. However, a shortage of qualified labour restricted the growth in production. Average capacity utilisation rose to 82.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2012, but the result is still somewhat lower than the historic average for the industries in question.

The general short-term outlook (Q2 2012) is considered to be positive, and investments seem to be growing.

Strong results for producers of food products and beverages

Sectors producing consumer goods (food products, printing and reproduction, basic pharmaceuticals, furniture etc.) experienced further growth in output, a rise in demand and improved market prices. Strong results for producers of food products and beverages were the main reason for this development. Average capacity utilisation is estimated at 76 per cent in the first quarter of 2012.

The general short-term outlook (Q2 2012) is considered to be positive. Prospects of improved conditions for producers of food products and beverages support this view.

Assessment of industries in Q1 2012 and the short-term outlook
Industry Prospects    Background
Food, beverages and tobacco ++ Growth in output, higher employment, a rise in demand and improved market prices. The general outlook for Q2 is considered to be positive. Prospects of a further increase in output and demand.
Wood and wood products + Growth in output, higher employment and a rise in new orders from the domestic market. Poor development in export markets. The general outlook for Q2 is considered to be positive. Prospects of a further increase in new orders from the domestic market.
Paper and paper products -- Decline in output, less employment, a fall in new orders and lower market prices. The general outlook for Q2 is considered to be poor. Downward adjustment of planned investments.
Basic chemicals -- Decline in output, less employment and a fall in new orders. Lower prices in export markets. The general outlook for Q2 is considered to be poor, but somewhat fewer respondents share this view. Upward adjustment of planned investments.
Non-ferrous metals - Decline in output, less employment and a further reduction in the current stock of orders. Poor development in export markets. The general outlook for Q2 is considered to be neutral.
Fabricated metal products + Growth in output, higher employment and a rise in new orders from the domestic market. Lower prices in export markets. The general outlook for Q2 is considered to be positive, but somewhat fewer respondents share this view.
Computer and electrical equipment +/- Growth in output, higher employment and a rise in new orders from the domestic market. Poor development in export markets. The general outlook for Q2 is considered to be neutral.
Machinery and equipment + Small changes in output, but higher employment. A rise in new orders from the domestic market. Poor development in export markets. The general outlook for Q2 is considered to be positive. Upward adjustment of planned investments.
Ships, boats and oil platforms + Growth in output and higher employment, but shortage of qualified labour. A rise in new orders from the domestic market. Lower market prices. The general outlook for Q2 is considered to be positive. Upward adjustment of planned investments.
Repair, installation of machinery ++ Growth in output and capacity utilisation. Higher employment, but shortage of qualified labour. Improved conditions in the domestic market. A fall in new orders from export markets. The general outlook for Q2 is considered to be positive. Upward adjustment of planned investments.
The column for Prospects shows an overall evaluation of the present situation and expected short-term developments using the symbols + and -. The following codes and constellations are used: ++
+
~
-
--
+(-)
+/- 		Very good
Good
Stable
Poor
Very poor
Good, but with certain negative indications
A situation where the + and - factors even out

Industrial confidence indicator (ICI)

The indicator is the arithmetic average of the responses (balances) to the questions on production expectations, total stock of orders and inventories of own products (the latter with an inverted sign).

The indicator is a guide to the level of industrial production since:

  • An expected rise in the level of output signifies increased production in the forthcoming quarter.

  • An increase in the total stock of orders indicates a higher level of production due to the future fulfilment of these orders.

  • An increase in the inventories of own products indicates slow sales and reduced activity.

Timeliness

The survey data was collected in the period between 10 March 2012 and 25 April 2012.

Changes in the Business tendency survey

The questionnaire used to collect data for the Business tendency survey changed as from the survey for the 4th quarter of 2011. The new questionnaire has been thoroughly tested, and there has been a special focus on making the questions easier to understand. Some questions have been replaced.

The following questions have been removed from the new questionnaire, and are therefore no longer published:

- Time of delivery for the total stock of orders

- Inventories of raw materials, semi-finished products etc.

- Stocks of raw materials compared to current level of production

- Stocks of own products compared to the value of sales

The new questionnaire includes questions on prices of input factors, profitability and limiting factors for investments in fixed assets. New indicators will be published when they are quality assured, and when we have results for some consecutive quarters. Apart from these changes, the questions are the same as in the old questionnaire.