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84574
Weaker growth in manufacturing
statistikk
2012-08-01T10:00:00.000Z
Energy and manufacturing;National accounts and business cycles
en
kbar, Business tendency survey for manufacturing, mining and quarrying, actual and expected development, production, employment, new orders, market prices, resource shortage, bottlenecks, capacity utilisation, industrial confidence indicatorBusiness cycles , Manufacturing, mining and quarrying , National accounts and business cycles, Energy and manufacturing
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Business tendency survey for manufacturing, mining and quarrying, Q2 2012

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Weaker growth in manufacturing

Norwegian industrial managers report that the increase in total output shows signs of levelling out after a period of sustained growth. However, for the time being there are no signals of a future decline in production.

According to the Business tendency survey, the Norwegian manufacturing industry experienced weaker growth in the second quarter of 2012. Poor results for suppliers of intermediate goods to export markets explain why the production was levelling out. However, total employment continued to rise. Sustained growth in total stocks of orders for suppliers of capital goods was the main reason for this development. The number of working months covered by the current stock of orders was lower than recorded in the second quarter of 2011, but the decline in new orders from export markets seems to have come to a halt. However, export prices continued to fall. Average capacity utilisation was estimated at 79.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2012. International comparisons of average capacity utilisation are available from EUROSTAT .

Bottlenecks in production in current quarter. Smoothed seasonally adjusted. Q1 2005-Q2 2012

Prospects of further improvement

The general short-term outlook (Q3 2012) is considered to be positive. Prospects of further growth in total output support this view and investments seem to be growing. The industrial confidence indicator fell form 9 to 7 (seasonally-adjusted net figure) in the second quarter of 2012. International comparisons of the industrial confidence indicator are available from EUROSTAT (EU), the Swedish National Institute of Economic Research (Sweden) and Statistics Denmark .

Weak demand from export markets

Sectors producing intermediate goods (wood and wood products, paper and paper products, non-metallic mineral products, basic metals etc.) experienced little change in total output after nine consecutive quarters of growth. Weak demand from export markets was the main reason for this result. The low supply of new orders posed a major challenge for producers of traditional goods like paper and paper products, non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals. In addition to this a higher number of respondents point at competition as a factor that limits production. Average capacity utilisation was estimated at 80.7 per cent in the second quarter of 2012. This is below the historic level for these sectors.

Industrial confidence indicator. Q1 2005-Q2 2012

The general short-term outlook (Q3 2012) is considered to be positive, but the result was close to neutral.

Sustained growth in new orders from domestic markets

Sectors producing capital goods (machinery and equipment, ships, boats and oil platforms, repair and installation etc.) experienced higher output and a rise in employment. Sustained growth in new orders from domestic markets, partly due to a very high level of investments within oil and gas (see investments oil and gas activity ), was the main reason for this development. However, a shortage of qualified labour restricted the growth in production. Average capacity utilisation is estimated at 81.6 per cent in the second quarter of 2012. This is below the historic level for these sectors.

The general short-term outlook (Q3 2012) is considered to be positive. Prospects of further growth in total stocks of orders support this view, and investments seem to be growing.

Somewhat weaker growth in output

Sectors producing consumer goods (food products, printing and reproduction, basic pharmaceuticals, furniture etc.) experienced weaker growth in total output. A similar development was recorded for demand from domestic markets. Negative figures for exposed industries like production of furniture partly explain these results. Market prices continued to improve, and there was somewhat higher demand from export markets. Average capacity utilisation is estimated at 75.9 per cent in the second quarter of 2012.

The general short-term outlook (Q3 2012) is considered to be positive, and investments seem to be growing.

Assessment of industries in Q2 2012 and the short-term outlook
Industry Prospects Background
Food, beverages and tobacco ++ Growth in output, higher employment, a rise in demand and improved market prices. The general outlook for Q3 is considered to be positive. Upward adjustment of planned investments.
Wood and wood products +(-) Small changes in output and employment. A rise in new orders from domestic markets. Weak demand in export markets. Lower market prices. The general outlook for Q3 is considered to be negative. Prospects of a decline in output and new orders.
Paper and paper products - Decline in output, less employment and lower market prices. Weak demand in export markets. The general outlook for Q3 is considered to be neutral. Upward adjustment of planned investments.
Basic chemicals - Decline in output, less employment and a fall in new orders. Lower prices in export markets. The general outlook for Q3 is considered to be neutral. Prospects of a rise in output and market prices.
Non-ferrous metals -- Decline in output, less employment, a fall in new orders and lower market prices. The general outlook for Q3 is considered to be negative. Downward adjustment of planned investments.
Fabricated metal products + Growth in output, higher employment and a rise in new orders. Improved prices in domestic markets. Lower prices in export markets. The general outlook for Q3 is considered to be positive. Prospects of further growth in output and new orders.
Computer and electrical equipment + Growth in output, higher employment and a rise in new orders. Lower market prices. The general outlook for Q3 is considered to be positive. Prospects of further improvement in output and employment.
Machinery and equipment + Small changes in output and new orders. Higher employment. Lower market prices. The general outlook for Q3 is considered to be positive. Upward adjustment of planned investments.
Ships, boats and oil platforms + Growth in output and higher employment, but shortage of qualified labour. A rise in new orders from domestic markets. A fall in new orders from export markets. Lower market prices. The general outlook for Q3 is considered to be positive. Upward adjustment of planned investments.
Repair, installation of machinery ++ Growth in output and higher employment, but shortage of qualified labour. Improved conditions in domestic markets. Lower prices in export markets. The general outlook for Q3 is considered to be positive. Upward adjustment of planned investments.
The column for Prospects shows an overall evaluation of the present situation and expected short-term developments using the symbols + and -. The following codes and constellations are used:
++ Very good
+ Good
~ Stable
- Poor
-- Very poor
+(-) Good, but with certain negative indications
+/- A situation where the + and - factors even out
-(+) Poor, but with certain positive indications

Industrial confidence indicator (ICI)

The indicator is the arithmetic average of the responses (balances) to the questions on production expectations, total stock of orders and inventories of own products (the latter with an inverted sign).

The indicator is a guide to the level of industrial production since:

  • An expected rise in the level of output signifies increased production in the forthcoming quarter.

  • An increase in the total stock of orders indicates a higher level of production due to the future fulfilment of these orders.

  • An increase in the inventories of own products indicates slow sales and reduced activity.

Timeliness

The survey data was collected in the period between 10 June 2012 and 25 July 2012.

Changes in the Business tendency survey

The questionnaire used to collect data for the Business tendency survey changed as from the survey for the 4th quarter of 2011. The new questionnaire has been thoroughly tested, and there has been a special focus on making the questions easier to understand. Some questions have been replaced.

The following questions have been removed from the new questionnaire, and are therefore no longer published:

  • Time of delivery for the total stock of orders

  • Inventories of raw materials, semi-finished products etc.

  • Stocks of raw materials compared to current level of production

  • Stocks of own products compared to the value of sales

The new questionnaire includes questions on prices of input factors, profitability and limiting factors for investments in fixed assets. New indicators will be published when they are quality assured, and when we have results for some consecutive quarters. Apart from these changes the questions are the same as in the old questionnaire.