84576_not-searchable
/en/energi-og-industri/statistikker/kbar/arkiv
84576
Total stocks ceased growing
statistikk
2012-10-30T10:00:00.000Z
Energy and manufacturing;National accounts and business cycles
en
kbar, Business tendency survey for manufacturing, mining and quarrying, actual and expected development, production, employment, new orders, market prices, resource shortage, bottlenecks, capacity utilisation, industrial confidence indicatorBusiness cycles , Manufacturing, mining and quarrying , National accounts and business cycles, Energy and manufacturing
false

Business tendency survey for manufacturing, mining and quarrying, Q3 2012

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Total stocks ceased growing

Norwegian industrial managers report a stronger increase in total output. However, a decline in the industrial confidence indicator indicates that the rise in production will come to a halt. Weaker growth in new orders is the main reason for this result.

According to the Business tendency survey, the Norwegian manufacturing industry experienced stronger growth in total output in the third quarter of 2012, and total employment continued to improve. Higher activity among suppliers of capital goods was the main reason for this development. The growth in demand from domestic markets was levelling out, and the amount of new orders was no longer sufficient to compensate for weaker conditions in export markets. As a result, total stocks of orders stopped going up after a long period of growth.

Prices continued to improve in domestic markets, while the opposite was the case in export markets. Average capacity utilisation is estimated at 79.8 per cent in the third quarter of 2012. This figure is more or less identical to the results recorded in the previous surveys and lies below the historic average for the manufacturing industry. International comparisons of average capacity utilisation are available from EUROSTAT .

Bottlenecks in production in current quarter. Smoothed seasonally adjusted. Q1 2005-Q3 2012

A decline in the industrial confidence indicator

The general short-term outlook (Q4 2012) is considered to be positive. Expectations of further growth in total output and new orders support this view. The results are in contrast to the development in the industrial confidence indicator, which fell from 6 to 1 (seasonally-adjusted net figure) in the third quarter of 2012. This decline suggests a slowdown in the rise in production.

The drop in the industrial confidence indicator was a result of several different factors. Total stocks of orders have stopped growing and inventories of products for sale are rising. In addition to this, there was a decline in the number of industrial managers who claim to be expecting a rise in output. International comparisons of the industrial confidence indicator are available from EUROSTAT (EU), the Swedish National Institute of Economic Research (Sweden) and Statistics Denmark .

Industrial confidence indicator. Q1 2005-Q3 2012

Weak results for producers of non-ferrous metals

Sectors producing intermediate goods (wood and wood products, paper and paper products, non-metallic mineral products, basic metals etc.) experienced stable output after a long period of growth. However, employment and investments seem to be falling. Market conditions worsened in the third quarter. This led to a decline in total stocks of orders and a rise in inventories of products for sale. The situation was particularly weak for producers of non-ferrous metals, and producers of wood and wood products faced a rapid slowdown in demand. Average capacity utilisation is estimated at 80.7. The result lies below the historic average for the sectors in question.

The general short-term outlook (Q4 2012) is considered to be somewhat more positive. Expectations of a rise in output and improved conditions in domestic markets support this view.

Sustained growth in new orders

Sectors producing capital goods (machinery and equipment, ships, boats and oil platforms, repair and installation etc.) experienced a further rise in output and significant growth in employment. However, a lack of capacity and shortage of qualified labour restricted the increase in production. A rise in total stocks due to sustained growth in new orders from domestic markets explains the positive development. Very high investments within oil and gas activity (see investments in oil and gas activity ) formed the basis for this growth. Average capacity utilisation is estimated at 82.3 per cent in the third quarter of 2012. The result lies close to the historic average for these sectors.

The general short-term outlook (Q4 2012) is considered to be positive. Prospects of a further rise in total stocks of orders support this view. Many of the respondents are expecting an increase in employment, and investments seem to be growing.

Falling demand in domestic markets

Sectors producing consumer goods (food products, printing and reproduction, basic pharmaceuticals, furniture etc.) experienced a slowdown in the rise in output. Falling demand from domestic markets was the reason for this development. Much weaker growth in the consumption of food and beverages combined with a drop in total stocks within printing and reproduction partly explains this result. Market prices continued to improve, and there was somewhat higher demand from export markets. Average capacity utilisation is estimated at 76 per cent in the second quarter of 2012.

The general short-term outlook (Q3 2012) is considered to be positive. Expectations of growth in output, demand and market prices support this view. However, employment is expected to fall.

Assessment of industries in Q3 2012 and the short-term outlook
 
Industry Prospects Background
 
Food, beverages and tobacco + Growth in output and employment. More or less unchanged level of demand from domestic and export markets. Many managers report higher level of domestic market prices. The general outlook for Q4 is considered positive by many mangers, and further growth in production and market prices are expected.
Wood and wood products - Lower levels of production, capacity utilisation and employment. Many managers report decline in new orders received, and there is an increase in managers report poor demand and fierce competition as limiting factors for production. Lower market prices. The general outlook for Q4 is judged as negative, and further reductions in output, employment and new orders are expected. Domestic market prices are expected to remain unchanged, while export prices are expected to decline.
Paper and paper products -(+) Rise in output, but lower level of employment. Decline in new orders received and market prices. Still there are expectations of improvement in Q4, and the general outlook is judged as better. Expectations of increase in output and new orders. A further decline in export prices is expected.
Basic chemicals - More or less unchanged level of production. Reduced employment and decline in new orders from the domestic market. The level of new orders from the export market is more or less unchanged. Lower market prices The general outlook for Q4 is considered as worse, and output is expected to remain stable. Employment and new orders are expected to decline.
Non-ferrous metals -- Decline in output, capacity utilisation and employment. Lower levels of new orders and market prices. Many managers consider the general outlook for Q4 as negative. This view is supported by expectations of further reductions in output, employment and new orders from the export market. Further reduction in export prices is expected.
Fabricated metal products ++ Many managers report growth in the levels of production, capacity utilisation and employment. Rise in new orders and market prices from the domestic market, while new orders and prises in the export market are more or less unchanged. The general outlook for Q4 is judged as positive by many managers, and further growth in output, employment, new orders and market prices are expected.
Computer and electrical equipment +(-) Higher levels of production, capacity utilisation and employment. Rise in new orders from the domestic market, while export orders are more or less unchanged. Decline in market prices. The general outlook for Q4 is considered as worse. This view is supported by expectations of further decline in export prices and reduced level of new orders from the export market. At the same time output and domestic market prices are expected to rise.
Machinery and equipment +(-) Growth in output and employment. Reduced levels of new orders and market prices from the domestic and export markets. Planed investments have increased, and the general outlook for Q4 is considered positive. Many managers expect rise in output, employment and new orders. Market prices are expected to remain stable.
Ships, boats and oil platforms ++ Higher levels of production and capacity utilisation. Many managers report higher level of employment, and an increasing number of managers report lack of qualified labour as a limiting factor for production. Increase in new orders from the domestic market and more or less unchanged market prices. Many managers consider the general outlook for Q4 as better and output, employment, new orders and domestic market prices are expected to increase. Upward adjustment of planned investments.
Repair, installation of machinery ++ Growth in output, capacity utilisation employment. Rise in new orders and domestic market prices. Planned investments have increased, and the general outlook for Q4 is judged to be improving. There are expectations of further growth in the levels of production, employment, new orders and domestic market prices. Export prises are expected to remain stable.
The column for Prospects shows an overall evaluation of the present situation and expected short-term developments using the symbols + and -. The following codes and constellations are used: ++
+
²
-
--
+(-)
+/-		 Very good
Good
Stable
Poor
Very poor
Good, but with certain negative indications
A situation where the + and - factors even out
 

Timeliness:

The survey data was collected in the period between 10 September 2012 and 25 October 2012.

Industrial confidence indicator (ICI):

The indicator is the arithmetic average of the responses (balances) to the questions on production expectations, total stock of orders and inventories of own products (the latter with an inverted sign).

 

The indicator is a guide to the level of industrial production since:

 

An expected rise in the level of output signifies increased production in the forthcoming quarter.

An increase in the total stock of orders indicates a higher level of production due to the future fulfilment of these orders.

An increase in the inventories of own products indicates slow sales and reduced activity.

 

Timeliness

The survey data was collected in the period between 10 June 2012 and 25 July 2012.

Changes in the Business tendency survey

The questionnaire used to collect data for the Business tendency survey changed as from the survey for the 4th quarter of 2011. The new questionnaire has been thoroughly tested, and there has been a special focus on making the questions easier to understand. Some questions have been replaced.

 

The following questions have been removed from the new questionnaire, and are therefore no longer published:

- Time of delivery for the total stock of orders

- Inventories of raw materials, semi-finished products etc.

- Stocks of raw materials compared to current level of production

- Stocks of own products compared to the value of sales

 

The new questionnaire includes questions on prices of input factors, profitability and limiting factors for investments in fixed assets. New indicators will be published when they have been quality assured, and when we have results for some consecutive quarters. Apart from these changes, the questions are the same as in the old questionnaire.

 

Tables

Published tables