Business tendency survey for manufacturing, mining and quarrying, Q3 2013

According to the Business tendency survey for the Norwegian manufacturing industry, there was a moderate increase in total output in the third quarter of 2013, and the employment continued to rise. Higher total stocks of orders due to larger demand explain these results. The growth in new orders was particularly strong in export markets. A weaker Norwegian currency and improved conditions in industrialised countries explain this fact. Home market prices continued to rise, and the decline in export prices was levelling out.

Average capacity utilisation for the Norwegian manufacturing industry is estimated at 79.4 per cent at the end of the third quarter of 2013. International comparisons of average capacity utilisation are available from Eurostat (EU). The average number of working months covered by the current stock of orders was somewhat lower than in the corresponding quarter of 2012. A decline in total stocks of orders for suppliers to the oil and gas sector was the main reason for this fall.

Prospects of further improvement in the forthcoming quarter

The general short-term outlook for the fourth quarter of 2013 is considered to be better, and the investments seem to be growing. Prospects of an increase in output, new orders and market prices support these results. The industrial confidence indicator rose from 2 to 5 (seasonally-adjusted net figure) in the third quarter of 2013. A decline in inventories of products intended for sale explains this rise. International comparisons of the industrial confidence indicator are available from Eurostat (EU), The Swedish National Institute of Economic Research and Statistics Denmark.

Higher production of intermediate goods

Producers of intermediate goods experienced a rise in output, and the decline in employment was levelling out. Positive development in export markets was the main reason for this improvement, but the conditions in home markets also seem to be better. Higher demand for basic chemicals explains some of the growth in production. Producers of building materials also report a higher output. Average capacity utilisation is estimated at 79 per cent at the end of the third quarter of 2013. This result lies below the historic average for the industries in question.

The general short-term outlook for the fourth quarter of 2013 is considered to be better. Prospects of growth in new orders and market prices support this view. However, the investment plans are not changed.

Higher activity within production of capital goods

Producers of capital goods experienced a further increase in output and employment. However, total stocks of orders continued to fall, and fewer managers report that capacity and supply of qualified labour are curtailing production. A decline in new orders explains these results. The average number of working months covered by the current stock of orders lay well above the historic average for the industries in question. A stronger focus on services among producers of goods to the oil and gas sector contributes to the high level. Average capacity utilisation is estimated at 82.2 per cent at the end of the third quarter of 2013.

The general short-term outlook for the fourth quarter of 2013 is considered to be better. Prospects of growth in output and employment support this view.

Stronger demand for consumer goods

Producers of consumer goods experienced minor changes in total output, and employment continued to fall. However, market conditions seem to be improving, and fewer managers report that a lack of demand is curtailing production. The recovery was particularly strong in export markets. Average capacity utilisation is estimated at 76.7 per cent at the end of the third quarter of 2013. This result lies somewhat below the historic average for the industries in question.

The general short-term outlook for the fourth quarter of 2013 is considered to be better, and the investments seem to be growing. Prospects of higher demand and improved market prices support these results.

Assessment of industries in Q3 2013 and the short-term outlook ¹