Economic Survey 3-2009

There are now clear signs that the pronounced global downturn has levelled off . GDP in the US and the euro area fell considerably less in the second quarter than in the preceding quarters, and in parts of Asia growth has begun to pick up again. A counter-cyclical policy is being pursued in most countries, and this has contributed to the improvement that appears to be taking place in the global economy. There is less uncertainty in financial markets. Risk premiums have fallen. Equity prices in the US and the euro area have risen by about 50 per cent since bottoming out at the end of 2008, but are still appreciably lower than the peak in 2007. Expectations surveys indicate that the business sector and households are somewhat less pessimistic than previously. Housing markets in many countries also show clear signs that the recession may be coming to an end.