Flattening growth in mainland GDP

The monthly figures are volatile, and it is therefore appropriate to assess the development over three-month periods. Services related to oil extraction and construction of oil platforms and modules, in addition to aquaculture and production of electricity were among the most important contributors to three-month growth in the mainland economy, according to figures from the  National accounts. Service industries also contributed, mainly ICT-services and retail trade. The retail industry experienced strong growth in November, after slow development in the previous two months. Overall, the service industries increased by 0.3 per cent in the three months to November. Manufacturing, on the other hand, declined 0.6 per cent in September-November. Production of pharmaceutical products, refined petroleum products, in addition to chemical and mineral products contributed to the decline. Construction is still experiencing growth, but at a slower pace than before the summer.

Consumption

Household consumption increased 0.2 per cent from September-November to June-August. Consumption of services grew 0.3 per cent during the same period, and retail consumption increased 0.1 per cent. Car sales, in particular, dampened three-month growth in retail consumption.

Foreigners’ purchases in Norway increased 4.2 per cent in the three-month period, whereas Norwegian households’ purchases abroad grew 1.2 per cent. Public consumption experienced a slight decline of 0.1 per cent in the same period.

Investments

Gross investments grew 4 per cent from June-August to September-November and fell 1.8 per cent in November. Investment in dwellings fell 1.6 per cent over the three-month period and 1.9 per cent from October to November.

Monthly figures regarding petroleum, manufacturing, mining and power supply investments follows information on planned investments, as reported by firms in the industry.

Imports and exports

Total exports increased 2.3 per cent from June-August to September-November, while exports of traditional goods increased 2.4 per cent. Exports of crude oil and natural gas grew 5 per cent in the three-month period. Imports of traditional goods fell 2.2 per cent over the same period, while total imports decreased 0.3 per cent.

Revisions

With new monthly figures come revisions. The statistics used will not normally be subject to a revision, but seasonally adjusted series may, however, be changed. This is a consequence of new information being incorporated into the seasonal adjustment. As additional months are included in the data, the effect of new observations will become ever smaller. Growth in mainland GDP Q2 2019 as published in December, has been revised up from 0.6 to 0.7 per cent.