Growth rate tapered off throughout the third quarter

Figures from the  National accounts show that production of goods excluding manufacturing and mining grew by 1.1 per cent in the third quarter, which was largely attributed to growth in electricity production and aquaculture. Construction, which has been a growth engine for a long time, saw, alongside manufacturing, zero growth in the third quarter. Following growth in July, activity levels fell in these industries in August and September.

The activity level for the services industries increased by 0.6 percent in the third quarter, as in the previous quarter. The monthly national accounts figures show weaker growth at the end of the quarter, with lower activity in administrative and support service activities contributing to a dampening of the quarterly growth. On the other hand, services connected to oil and gas extraction saw robust growth.

Gross product in oil and gas extraction, as well as overseas shipping, fell by 4.2 percent in the third quarter and thus contributed to overall GDP’s remaining largely the same.

Steady growth in consumption

Total household consumption increased by 0.4 percent in the third quarter, following a growth rate of 0.3 percent in the previous quarter. 

Consumption of goods saw zero growth in in the third quarter, which can be largely attributed to car sales, which plummeted in July following strong June figures. Excluding car sales, consumption of goods increased by 0.7 percent. Consumption of services increased by 0.6 percent, with the strongest contributors being the hospitality industry as well as culture and leisure services. Increased spending on travel abroad also contributed positively to the growth in consumption in the third quarter. 

Government consumption increased by 0.9 percent, in line with the growth rate of the first two quarters of 2019.

Continued growth in investments

Investments in the petroleum extraction industries increased by 6.7 percent in the second quarter and continued to increase in the third quarter. Preliminary figures show a growth rate of three percent in the third quarter. So far this year, the investments are 14 percent higher than at the same period last year.

Gross investments on the mainland (excluding shipping and petroleum extraction) increased by 5.3 percent in the third quarter, where investments in production of electricity is a major contributor. Investments in manufacturing, which has seen growth in four consecutive quarters, also contributed. Government investments also saw growth, but this is largely due to the delivery of three fighter jets in the third quarter.

Household investment in real estate increased for the fifth consecutive quarter after a fall in the first half of 2018. Quarterly growth was 0.7 percent, while the monthly national account figures show somewhat weaker growth towards the end of the quarter.

Gross investments grew by 4.8 percent for Norway as a whole in the third quarter.

Low natural gas exports

The exports of goods and services fell by 2.2 percent in the third quarter. The fall is largely due to reduced export of natural gas, following routine maintenance work on the offshore fields. The decline was dampened by the increase in exports of services, which grew by 1.5 percent. Export of services has now increased for three consecutive quarters.

Imports of goods and services increased by 1.2 percent in the third quarter. The import of traditional goods (excluding oil and gas) fell by 0.9 percent, while imports of services saw growth.

Growth in employment slowed down

Preliminary seasonally adjusted figures show that employment increased by about 8,700 persons, or 0.3 percent, in the third quarter. That is somewhat weaker than in the first and second quarters, when the growth rate was 0.5 and 0.4 percent, respectively. Construction saw high employment growth throughout 2018 and the first quarter of 2019, but this growth has declined in the second and third quarters. Hiring has also declined in administrative and support service activities, which includes, among others, staffing firms. Government employment has remained largely unchanged for the last two quarters and thus contributes to the slowing growth rate in employment.

Revisions

As new monthly figures have arrived, there will be revisions to previously released numbers. This may affect seasonally adjusted numbers as the numbers on which they are based change as new periods are added. Until our time series are longer there will be adjustments to the seasonally adjusted numbers. The impact of new observations will decrease as the time series expands.

Since the previous publication in October, there have been no revisions of consequence. An overview of revisions of key macroeconomic indicators since the publication of figures for the third quarter in November are found in table 10.