Economic trends for Møre og Romsdal

The economic development in the county of Møre og Romsdal is, like in the nation generally, characterized by a moderate upturn in the Norwegian economy. International growth is very weak and is still marked by the repercussions of the financial crisis and central government’s financial problems in many countries. The boost from a number of large emerging economies has also been reduced. The economic perspectives for Møre og Romsdal, as for Norway generally, is still characterized by the uncertain international growth outlook. Business investments in the mainland economy are therefore expected to make a considerably smaller contribution to the upturn than has been the case in the past upturns. From a very low level, we assume that growth among our trading partners will carefully pick up from the year of 2014. Impaired cost-related competitive power in Norway and poor international growth will lead to very moderate growth in Norwegian exports excluding petroleum.

Low international interest rates and a strong krone have contributed to a low interest rates in Norway, where they are roughly expected to stay up to next summer, when they are expected to gradually increase. The annual wage growth in 2012 is expected to be the same as last year, while a weak profitability in the internationally-exposed manufacturing industry will probably lead to somewhat lower wage growth in 2013. High immigration levels in Norway have played a role in curbing inflation in some industries and together with a strong krone this has contributed to low inflation. High growth in real wages, employment and transfers are leading to a clear increase in households’ real incomes in 2012. This contributes to a clear growth in consumption this year, but also in savings. The housing prices are still growing, and so are housebuilding. Investments in the petroleum sector have increased. These investments are likely to remain high in the years ahead, but with much lower growth rates. The development in oil prices will be of immense importance. We assume a somewhat lower oil price in the next years than observed in the early autumn of 2012.

The national manufacturing production is expected to increase in 2012, so also in the county of Møre og Romsdal. The activity of construction is also increasing. The production of private service industries is expected to grow at a higher rate this year than in the previous year, while the production in public services grow somewhat lower than last year and in the economy generally.

Møre og Romsdal had an increase in employment during the first six months this year, with an increase in the number of employed in manufacturing, construction and in private and public services, while the employment in primary industries slightly decreased. Projections indicate a clear employment growth this year, measured as an annual average, and slightly stronger growth than previous year, although slightly lower than the national average. There is also a growth in the labour force, although not more than the number of unemployed is assumed to be somewhat lower this year compared to previous year, and still below the unemployment rate at the national level.

The number of employed persons is expected to grow in Møre og Romsdal also the next year and in 2014, with an estimated growth slightly below the projected growth of employment in the nation generally. The employment of primary industries is still expected to decrease, while the projections indicate further growth of employed in manufacturing, construction and in private and public services.

It was high growth in the number of inhabitants in Møre og Romsdal in 2011. This population growth was the strongest in the county ever since 1953. This is due to a positive natural increase of the population, a high surplus of immigrants from abroad, while the out-migration to other regions of Norway just had a slight increase. The population growth is expected to continue. The same is expected for the working-age population. The projected development of the labour force and employment indicates small changes in unemployment of Møre og Romsdal in the next two years.