Moderate economic upturn in the first half of this year

For manufacturing and mining, the preliminary figures from the Quarterly national accounts show an increase in the gross product of 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2017. This is the third quarter in a row with growth after two years of decline. We see this upward tendency in most areas.

The activity level for other goods-producing industries in mainland Norway increased by 0.9 per cent in the second quarter. It was mainly construction and construction activity that pulled up in this quarter, following steady growth since the first quarter of 2016. In addition, power supply activity increased, while traditional fishing and aquaculture fell somewhat.

Business services increased by 0.6 per cent in the second quarter, slightly more than the previous quarter.In the service sector, the picture is that the growth is broadly composed. Value added in public administration increased by 0.4 per cent in the 2nd quarter, after a somewhat higher growth in the previous quarter.

Value added in extraction andtransport via pipelines of oil and gas, as well as foreign shipping increased in the second quarter of 2017 after a decline in the first quarter, contributing to a total of 1.1 per cent growth in total CDP in the first quarter compared with only 0.2 per cent in the quarter before.

 

Stronger consumption growth in households

Household consumption increased by 1.2 per cent in the second quarter, having increased by 0.6 per cent the previous year. Commodity sales increase for the third quarter in a row, showing the strongest growth since the third quarter 2013. There was a broad rise in consumer spending. However, a fall in the purchase of cars of 1.5 percent slowed down the rise in consumption.

Service consumption increased by 0.8 per cent, approximately the same as in the previous quarter

Public consumption increased by 0.4 per cent in the second quarter, after a clear growth in municipalities, but was dampened by a decline in defense consumption.

Stable investments in total

In total, gross capital formation increased by 3.2 per cent. Preliminary calculations show that growth in petroleum investments increased by 1.8 per cent in second quarter 2017, after 0.9 per cent growth in the first quarter. This growth comes after a continuous decline that started in the second half of 2013.

In mainland Norway, investment in industries fell by 0.8 per cent in both the first and second quarters. In manufacturing and mining, investment declined by 12.9 per cent, after a similar decline in the first quarter. In the other mainland industries, investment has increased slightly.

Investments in dwellings have risen sharply for a long time, increasing by 1.8 per cent in the second quarter of 2017.

Public sector investment by 9 per cent, and most of this growth is attributable to the delivery of three new combat aircrafts in the 2nd quarter. Other central government investment has remained at about the same level since the second half of 2016, but municipal investment has been stable for three consecutive quarters.

Increased exports and reduced imports.

Exports of goods and services increased overall by 1 per cent in the second quarter of 2017, following a corresponding decline in the previous quarter. Exports of traditional goods were 3 per cent higher than in the first quarter, while there was a 6 per cent increase from the fourth quarter of 2016 to the first quarter of 2017. The increase is due to an even larger fall through 2016 with a particularly strong fall in the fourth quarter of 7.3 per cent. Exports of refined oil products in the second quarter increased slightly more than the whole increase in traditional exports and contributed significantly to growth in the first quarter. Export volume of oil and gas increased in the second quarter, following a decline in the previous quarter.

Imports of traditional goods fell by 1.8 per cent following a strong growth the previous quarter. Total imports of goods and services decreased by 0.4 per cent in the second quarter.

More pronounced growth in employment

Preliminary calculations show that seasonal employment increased by 0.4 per cent, or about 10 600 people in the second quarter, after more than two years of modest growth. In the second quarter, there were 23 700 more employed than in the same quarter last year. Growth is mainly related to construction, business services and accommodation and catering activities. At the same time, petroleum activities and oil-related services industries have declined somewhat.

Revision of time series back to 2007

In connection with the release of figures for the second quarter of 2017, the base year is updated with new information from the final national accounts 2015. In addition, there have been minor revisions in the time series back to 2007.

In addition, new information has been incorporated for all quarters from the first quarter of 2016. The new figures for 2016 show a growth in the GDP of mainland Norway of 1.0 per cent on an annualized basis, which is 0.1 percentage point more than the previous estimate.

The seasonally adjusted growth in mainland Norway GDP through 2016 is, by the way, slightly changed as a result of the new information. Growth in 1st quarter 2017 has been revised upwards by 0.1 percentage points. An overview of revisions in macroeconomic main sizes is given in Appendix Table No. 8.

In connection with the release for the 1st quarter of 2017, all quarters in 2016 are revised. The new figures show a quarterly growth in GDP for the Mainland.

For an overview of developments in the gross domestic product for some of our trading partners, see OECD’s statistics.