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National accounts and business cycles
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Interest rate increases on the horizon
Activity in the Norwegian economy is expected to see a marked increase this summer as a result of the vaccination programme. The key policy interest rate is likely to return to the pre-pandemic level of 1.5 per cent in 2024.
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Vaccination pushes up interest rates
From the summer of 2021, economic activity is expected to increase markedly, as the population is vaccinated and the impact of the pandemic diminishes. We expect a gradual rise in interest rates from mid-2021.
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Better times in sight, but situation remains serious
The Norwegian economy is still trying to recover from its most extensive downturn in recent times, but activity is not expected to return to the pre-pandemic level until the end of 2021. We expect a gradual rise in interest rates from 2021.
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Deep economic crisis – but some bright spots in sight
The Norwegian economy appears to be picking up after the country shut down in March, but lower international demand and low oil prices will impact on economic development for several years to come. We expect a gradual rise in interest rates from 2...
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Abrupt standstill in the Norwegian economy
The standstill in the Norwegian economy due to the coronavirus pandemic is unprecedented. The current slump is likely to persist for several years to come.
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Upturn in the Norwegian economy soon over
The economic upturn that started in Norway in early 2017 is likely to come to an end over the next year. The international economic downturn means that Norwegian interest rates will remain low.
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Interest rate likely to have peaked
The Norwegian economy is facing a change of pace. Lower international growth means that the economic upturn is likely to be over within a year’s time.
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Trade tensions reducing growth outlook for the Norwegian economy
The Norwegian economy is experiencing a moderate and broad-based economic upturn. Higher interest rates and lower growth internationally are set to curb future activity.
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Upturn in Norwegian economy continues, but with clouds on the horizon
The moderate upturn in the Norwegian economy continues. Even lower growth prospects internationally or a marked long-term fall in the oil fund may, nevertheless, create problems for businesses and fiscal policy.
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Almost cyclically neutral Norwegian economy
The moderate upturn in the Norwegian economy continues, driven to a large extent by higher petroleum investments in 2019. The interest rate will continue to rise, wage growth will be higher and unemployment will see a slight fall.
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Economic boom in sight
The Norwegian economy has been in a moderate upturn for about a year and a half. The upturn is being further driven by increased investments in the petroleum industry and weak positive international impetus.
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Economic upturn is fragile
The Norwegian economy has been experiencing a moderate economic upturn for just over a year. Although the upturn is expected to continue as a result of increased investments in the petroleum industry and an international upturn, the economic situa...
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Norwegian economy boosted by increase in petroleum investment
The Norwegian economy experienced an economic upturn throughout 2017. Going forward, the upturn will be driven by an increase in investments in the petroleum industry and higher international growth, but will be slowed down by falling housing inve...
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The moderate upturn continues
The turnaround in the economy was driven by a highly expansive fiscal and monetary policy, a weak krone, low wage growth and strong growth in house building. Going forward, house building is expected to curb the economic upturn. Interest rates wil...
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Cyclical bottom has been reached, but recovery will be slow
A highly expansive fiscal and monetary policy, weak krone and strong growth in house building have contributed to a shift in the economy. Low interest rates and high growth internationally are driving the upswing, while a stronger krone and less h...
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