Continued drop in PPI

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Heavy price falls on natural gas and refined petroleum products lead to a decrease of 2.7 percent in the producer price index for May. This comes despite a solid increase in prices on crude oil this month.

The price on oil halved from the levels of December 2019 during the winter and spring of 2020. One month’s decrease was superseded by the next, and the drops contributed to a continued fall in total PPI. In May however, the oil price increased by more than 12 percent, thus slightly curbing the fall. The prices on natural gas on the other hand, forcefully pulled the total index down in May, with a reduction of nearly 30 percent. This very low natural gas price have a number of reasons. Both mild weather and Covid-19 lockdowns along with a general insecurity in the world economy have all been proposed as contributing factors. Refined petroleum products also had a big price drop in May, with 15.7 percent, and was contributary when the prices on manufacturing in total fell by 1.8 percent.

Figure 1. Price index. 2015=100

PPI total Extraction of crude oil and natural gas
Jan. 2015 100 98.88
Feb. 2015 102.13 104.28
March 2015 103.47 107.44
April 2015 103.49 107.4
May 2015 103.43 108.35
June 2015 103.74 110.55
July 2015 101.35 105.06
Aug. 2015 97 93.89
Sep. 2015 96.82 94.09
Oct. 2015 97.37 93.64
Nov. 2015 97.79 92.92
Dec. 2015 93.42 83.49
Jan. 2016 89.25 70.81
Feb. 2016 86.9 68.65
March 2016 88 70.59
April 2016 88.66 71.41
May 2016 91.09 75.85
June 2016 93.67 80.47
July 2016 94.05 80.71
Aug. 2016 92.4 78.18
Sep. 2016 90.95 75.49
Oct. 2016 92.97 78.76
Nov. 2016 95.3 81.97
Dec. 2016 100.2 96.15
Jan. 2017 100.52 94.54
Feb. 2017 103.25 99.31
March 2017 102.18 98.13
April 2017 100.04 90.75
May 2017 99.22 88.52
June 2017 96.69 83.81
July 2017 95.71 80.84
Aug. 2017 96.12 81.42
Sep. 2017 98.87 87.04
Oct. 2017 101.31 95.16
Nov. 2017 104.59 101.47
Dec. 2017 107.57 108.9
Jan. 2018 110.93 116.07
Feb. 2018 108.11 105.04
March 2018 108.66 106.94
April 2018 112.25 119.2
May 2018 113.59 121.03
June 2018 116.08 122.61
July 2018 117.32 123.93
Aug. 2018 117.96 126.23
Sep. 2018 119.71 131.61
Oct. 2018 124.06 144.69
Nov. 2018 120.18 131.38
Dec. 2018 115.93 119.29
Jan. 2019 116.31 120.76
Feb. 2019 116.82 122.19
March 2019 114.41 115.72
April 2019 115.21 116.94
May 2019 114.07 113.75
June 2019 108.53 99.8
July 2019 107.17 96.83
Aug. 2019 106.89 95.83
Sep. 2019 106.91 96.27
Oct. 2019 107.02 93.32
Nov. 2019 108.84 96.89
Dec. 2019 113.34 107.76
Jan. 2020 111.8 105.11
Feb. 2020 108.05 93.46
March 2020 99.99 72.25
April 2020 96.74 65.92
May 2020 94.06 60.27

Price increases on electricity

The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) reported historical lows in electricity prices during the second part of May. More snow melting due to higher temperatures, combined with reduced demand, made the spot price as low as 1 øre/kWh at certain hours this month. Despite this, the total index on electricity, gas and steam increased by 5.7 percent from April to May. This monthy increase is the first in 2020, but it came from a very low level, and the index still lay almost 30 percent lower than at same time in 2019.