Rise in crude oil price

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A price increase on crude oil made for an overall increase in the producer price index (PPI) in April. The increase was somewhat reduced by a fall in prices of natural gas and electricity.

Written by: Kristin Johansen

In the fall of 2018, some analysts predicted that the oil price would reach 70 USD per barrel some time during 2019, and in April, they were proven right. The forecasts were uncertain due to unstable times in the global oil market: cuts in production, sanctions towards oil producing countries, and uncertainty regarding demand and oil inventories. The month before, OPEC reported the lowest oil production volume in four years. The rise in oil price at about 6 per cent lead the total producer price index (PPI) to increase by 0.7 per cent. A substantial decrease in the price of natural gas worked the index in the opposite direction.

Figure 1. Price indices. 2015=100

PPI total Extraction of crude oil
Jan. 2009 74.09 70.81
Feb. 2009 72.41 67.8
Mar. 2009 72.32 73.65
Apr. 2009 71.93 76.9
May 2009 76.61 87.03
Jun. 2009 83.27 101.78
Jul. 2009 78.57 94.38
Aug. 2009 82.45 103.27
Sept. 2009 77.48 93.18
Okt. 2009 78.65 95.94
Nov.2009 81.44 101.83
Des. 2009 81.12 100.46
Jan. 2010 84.31 101.86
Feb. 2010 86.05 102.53
Mar. 2010 88.07 109.59
Apr. 2010 91.17 116.77
May 2010 90.74 110.78
Jun. 2010 92.76 112.3
Jul. 2010 92.78 110.83
Aug. 2010 93.09 109.44
Sept. 2010 92.78 109.25
Oct. 2010 92.82 112.64
Nov.2010 96.07 118.34
Dec. 2010 100.52 127.38
Jan. 2011 103.01 132.3
Feb. 2011 104.25 138.92
Mar. 2011 106.88 149.13
Apr. 2011 109.4 156.33
May 2011 107.05 147.63
Jun. 2011 106.06 146.8
Jul. 2011 107.73 148.75
Aug. 2011 105.01 140.63
Sept. 2011 106.92 148.21
Oct. 2011 107.02 144.01
Nov.2011 108.48 148.37
Dec. 2011 108.73 147.33
Jan. 2012 111.12 153.73
Feb. 2012 112.23 157.94
Mar. 2012 113.9 165.94
Apr. 2012 112.1 160.14
May 2012 109.69 149.96
Jun. 2012 105.89 133.42
Jul. 2012 107.13 144.78
Aug. 2012 109.62 155.38
Sept. 2012 108.43 149.3
Oct. 2012 108.84 147.14
Nov.2012 108.47 145.45
Dec. 2012 108.44 143.97
Jan. 2013 108.47 146.21
Feb. 2013 109.07 149.53
Mar. 2013 110.05 145.5
Apr. 2013 110.33 137.98
May 2013 107.89 137.5
Jun. 2013 107.74 140.84
Jul. 2013 110.35 151.44
Aug. 2013 111.44 154.24
Sept. 2013 111.95 154.83
Oct. 2013 111.31 150.8
Nov.2013 111.91 151.31
Dec. 2013 113.7 157.74
Jan. 2014 114.17 155.2
Feb. 2014 113.39 155.42
Mar. 2014 110.14 149.4
Apr. 2014 109.59 149.4
May 2014 108.62 151.5
Jun. 2014 109.08 156.88
Jul. 2014 108.49 153.69
Aug. 2014 107.74 146.99
Sept. 2014 107.73 144.31
Oct. 2014 107.52 134.12
Nov.2014 104.54 125.14
Dec. 2014 104.77 104.69
Jan. 2015 100 87.21
Feb. 2015 102.13 103.92
Mar. 2015 103.47 105.04
Apr. 2015 103.49 110.63
May 2015 103.43 114.91
Jun. 2015 103.74 117.22
Jul. 2015 101.35 108.94
Aug. 2015 97 91.22
Sept. 2015 96.82 93.83
Oct. 2015 97.37 94.92
Nov.2015 97.79 93.25
Dec. 2015 93.42 78.9
Jan. 2016 89.25 64.72
Feb. 2016 86.9 67.94
Mars.2016 88 78.53
Apr. 2016 88.66 82.59
May 2016 91.09 91.28
Jun. 2016 93.67 97.28
Jul. 2016 94.05 91.82
Aug. 2016 92.4 89.93
Sept. 2016 90.95 91.32
Oct. 2016 92.97 97.63
Nov.2016 95.3 91.71
Dec. 2016 100.2 108.43
Jan. 2017 100.52 108.93
Feb. 2017 103.25 107.69
Mar. 2017 102.18 104.69
Apr. 2017 100.04 107.14
May 2017 99.22 102.06
Jun. 2017 96.69 92.32
Jul. 2017 95.71 93.29
Aug. 2017 96.12 94.97
Sept. 2017 98.87 101.53
Oct. 2017 101.31 106.42
Nov.2017 104.59 118.55
Dec. 2017 107.57 122.94
Jan. 2018 110.93 127.26
Feb. 2018 108.11 118.16
Mar. 2018 108.66 121.1
Apr. 2018 112.25 131.21
May 2018 113.59 145.9
Jun. 2018 116.08 143.24
Jul. 2018 117.32 142.58
Aug. 2018 117.96 143.79
Sept. 2018 119.71 152.57
Oct. 2018 124.06 155.49
Nov.2018 120.18 129.85
Des. 2018 115.93 118.34
Jan. 2019 116.31 120.91
Feb. 2019 116.82 131.42
Mar. 2019 114.41 136.4
Apr. 2019 115.21 144.84

The prices on refined petroleum increased in April, as well as prices on processed meat and seafood. The price index for manufacturing in total increased by 0.8 per cent.

As for electricity supply, the price fell slightly during this relatively warm period, as it has done for three months in a row. Reduced consumption and rising reservoir levels due to higher temperatures, resulted in an index decrease for electricity at 1.3 per cent.