High balance of income and current transfers

After a long period of decline in the current account balance between 2013 and 2016, there has now been an upward swing, with increases in the first two quarters of 2018. The balance of goods and services has had a continuous decline through this period, while the opposite has been the case for the balance of income and current transfers, according to updated figures from balance of payments.

Exports and imports

The export value of goods and services in the 2nd quarter of 2018 is preliminarily calculated at NOK 332 billion. This is higher than the previous quarter, and also compared to the same period in 2017. The calculated import value of goods and services in the same period ended at NOK 298 billion, representing an increase both compared to the last quarter and the same quarter last year. The preliminary export and import figures in the 2nd quarter are more reliable for goods than for services. For more information about exports and imports, including price and volume considerations and seasonal adjustments, please see the quarterly national accounts .

Income and current transfers

Both income and current transfers to abroad and from abroad were high in the 2nd quarter of 2018 compared to the quarters of recent years. However, income from abroad was higher and generated a surplus of almost NOK 47 billion. This makes the balance of income and current transfers historically high. Unlike the balance of goods and services, which has gradually weakened, the balance of income and current transfers has experienced a persistent growth over recent years. Despite this, the current account is impacted by the low balance of goods and services. The balance of current account is not historically high, but still the highest since 2014. The preliminary estimates give a current account balance in the 2nd quarter of 2018 of NOK 81 billion.

Revisions

Exports and imports

2016

Both exports and imports have been revised for 2016. Total export has been revised up to NOK 34.5 billion, almost exclusively from a revision of the export of services. Roughly half the revision was so called gross receipts, shipping. The rest of the revision was dominated by oil-related services and financial services.

Imports for 2016 were also adjusted upward in the ‘final’ figures for 2016. Total import was adjusted upwards by NOK 10.3 billion. About 5 billion stemmed from oil-related investments, while other goods were adjusted upwards by NOK 3 billion. Overall, services have been revised upwards slightly, but there are a number of upward and downward revisions in the detailed services.

2017

Preliminary figures for 2017 have also been revised due to new accounting information, among other things. Exports and imports have been revised up by NOK 26.7 and NOK 2.3 billion respectively.

2018

The revisions are larger for the 1st quarter of 2018 because the figures were estimated with more uncertainty in the last publication. Both exports and imports have been revised, giving a total upward revision of NOK 10.9 billion of the balance of goods and services.

Income and current transfers

In 2016, the balance of income and current account has been revised downward by approximately NOK 18 billion. Most of the revisions are due to new information regarding reinvested earnings.

There have also been downward revisions of the balance of income and current transfers in 2017, approximately NOK 20 billion. Also, in 2017, this is mostly due to revisions of reinvested earnings.

In the 1st quarter of 2018, the balance of income and current transfers was revised up by NOK 3 billion compared to the last publication.