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16358
Historical party-switch among voters
statistikk
2002-03-14T10:00:00.000Z
Elections;Immigration and immigrants
en
vund, Storting election, election survey, party loyalty, voter migration, abstainersGeneral elections, Elections, Elections, Immigration and immigrants
false

Storting election, election survey, 2001

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Historical party-switch among voters

The Election Survey for the Storting Election show that never before has so many voters changed party allegiance from one election to another. Of those who voted in the 1997 election 37 per cent voted for another party in 2001. Most noticeably was the low loyalty of those who voted Labour in 1997, only 56 per cent of the Labour voters in 1997 sustained their support for the party in 2001.

Since the middle of the 1980s, Norwegian politics has been distinguished by massive electoral swings. In the two previous elections approximately 44 per cent changed their party allegiance, including those who went to and from the abstainer group.

If we exclude the abstainer group and focus on those who actually voted in the last two elections there has been a noteworthy electoral swing. Of the 37 per cent that altered their vote from 1997 to 2001, former Labour supporters that opted for other parties comprised nearly a third. In comparison the equivalent figure for the 1997 election was 7 per cent.

Low loyalty among former Labour voters

If we focus on the party support in the 1997 election and follow the changes to the 2001 election we find that only 56 per cent of the Labour votes in 1997 stayed loyal to the party in 2001. In comparison 77 per cent of Labours 1993 voters stayed loyal in the 1997 election. In other words there has been a dramatic change in the loyalty of former Labour voters in the 2001 election. It is of interest that Labour has lost more or less the same amount of voters to the Conservative Party (13 per cent) as to the Socialist Left Party (10 per cent). Another 12 per cent of the 1997 Labour supporters chose to abstain from voting in the election. Thus Labours poor result is mainly caused by electoral swings to other parties, not a loss of voters to the abstainer group.

Socialist Left Party and the Conservative Party had the most loyal supporters

Not surprisingly the two triumphants of the election, Socialist Left Party and the Conservative Party had the most loyal followers. Of its 1997 voters Socialist Left retained 73 per cent in the 2001 election, well above the 33 per cent that voted for the party in the 1993-1997 period. The Conservative Party kept 69 per cent of its 1997 voters.

Lower loyalty for the Christian Democratic Party and the Progress Party

Somewhat more surprising is the low loyalty of former Christian Democratic Party and Progress Party voters. Even though the Progress Party polled its second best election ever, only 47 per cent of its supporters stayed loyal compared with the 1997 election. This is a decrease from the 65 per cent that upheld the support for the party in the 1993-1997 period. The Progress Party lost a third of its voters to the Conservative Party. Also the Christian Democratic Party lost several voters, however these are more evenly spread among the other parties. Approximately 15 per cent of the voters shifted to the Conservative Party and the Progress Party, while 12 per cent opted for either the Socialist Left Party, the Centre Party or Labour party. In spite of the fact that the Christian Democratic Party performed its second best election ever, the 2001 election represents a significant fall in loyalty among its former supporters. Only 55 per cent of its 1997 voters continued to support the party in 2001. In 1997 however, 82 per cent of the 1993 voters supported the party.

If we focus on where the voters came from, we find that former Socialist Left voters now comprise only 41 per cent of those who voted for the party in 2001. Former Labour voters comprised the largest group of new voters (23 per cent), followed by former Centre Party voters (8 per cent) and former Christian Democratic Party voters and Liberal Party voters (both 5 per cent). Of its voters in 2001, 13 per cent did not participate in the 1997 election.

Of the Conservative Party's voters, 47 per cent is comprised of those who supported the party also in 1997, whereas 17 per cent is former Labour voters and 16 per cent former Progress Party voters. The Conservative Party's attracted substantially fewer voters from the abstainer group than the Socialist Left Party (6 per cent).

Even though the loyalty of the former Labour voters is low, this group comprised 80 per cent of the party's support in 2001. This reflects the lack of new supporters in the 2001 election.

Net gain for the Conservative Party and net loss for the Labour Party

The political parties both lose and win more voters to each other than what is actually revealed from the election result. Of vital importance is of course the balance sheet on Election Day; whether there was a net gain or a net win to the other parties. The Conservative Party had a net gain from all parties, especially Labour Party and the Progress Party. If we examine the relation to the abstainer group, the gains and the losses were levelled out.

Also the Socialist Left party has a net gain in relation to all parties, with a small exception for the Conservative Party. The Labour Party however has a net loss to all other parties and to the abstainer group. Labour looses most to the Conservative Party, the abstainer group and to the Socialist Left party.

The fluctuations for the Liberal Party are naturally not that of the same size, however the Liberal Party has a net gain in relation to the Christian Democratic Party and the Labour Party and a net loss to the Socialist Left party, Centre Party and the Conservative Party. The Centre Party has a net loss to most parties with the exception of the Labour party, the Liberal Party and the abstainer group.

The Christian Democratic Party and the Progress Party had low loyalty among their former voters in spite of the fact that both parties performed their second best election ever. This is also reflected by the net account. The Christian Democratic party has a net gain in relation to the Labour Party and the Centre Party, whereas they have a net loss to the other parties. The Progress Party's loss to the Conservative Party is partly compensated by a net gain in relation to the Christian Democratic party, Centre Party and the Labour Party. In relation to the Liberal Party there is a balance and in relation to the Socialist Left party there is a small decrease.

See also Labour's worst election in 77 years

See also Young voters used their voting rights

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Young voters used their voting rightsOpen and readClose

There was no dramatic reduction in voter participation among the first-time voters in the Storting Election 2001.The reduction was however larger in the age groups 22-25 and 26-29 years than the other age groups.

There was speculation immediately after the election that the reduction in voter participation was as result of a large reduction in the turnout of the very young voters. Even though age group 18-21 years registered a slightly lower level of participation in 2001 than in 1997 (55.7 as against 58.9 per cent), this difference is not statistically significant. There is also no dramatic decline in voter participation among first-time voters.

Voter participation increases with age

While almost 56 per cent of first-time voters used their voting rights, the proportion among those above 60 years was 84 per cent. The gender difference in voter participation is almost balanced compared with the 1997 elections. Even though there has been a decline among both males and females, the reduction in female participation is much larger and therefore balances the higher female turnout in the 1997 elections. Though female voter participation was higher than that of males in 1997, the difference was only within age group 22 - 49 years. Voter participation among first-time voters seems to be higher among males than females but the difference is not very significant. Among the voters 60 years and above, the participation is temporally higher for males than females.

This group always attracts special attention because their preference can provide an indication of future electoral trends. The most significant result of the 2001 Storting elections is the continuous reduction in the support of young voters for the Labour Party, now with only 11 percent support. This is more than a 50 per cent reduction in comparison to the 1989 elections. In relation to the last elections, the reduction is much higher among young males than among young females.

The election winners the Socialist Left Party and the Conservative Party, not only have increases among first-time voters, they equally have a similar large representation among this group. Almost half of the youth between 18 and 21 years voted for these two parties. It is temporally interesting that both the Christian Democratic Party and the Progress Party lost ground among the young voters. The same applies to the Liberal Party and the Centre Party. The Red Electoral Alliance can however register a slight increase in young voters. For the Christian Democratic Party, the elections in1997 represented a break through for young women. It is interesting to note that there is still high representation among women between the ages of 22 and 25 (22 per cent), while there has been a decline among female first-time voters (from 18 to 3 per cent).

Young males are more conservative than females

Available data confirms earlier electoral trends that to a large extent indicate that young females identify with the Socialist Left Party, The Labour Party and the Christian Democratic Party. Young males to a large extent do vote for the Conservative Party and the Progress Party. The Christian Democratic Party is stronger among older women. Almost every forth female over 60 years voted for the Christian Democratic Party in 2001. The winner within the first-time voters is Socialist Left Party with 39 per cent and the Conservative Party with 27 per cent. For both parties this result represents a triple increase in relation to the previous elections. Most elderly voters in the Christian Democratic Party and the Progress Party, most of the youth in the Red Electoral Alliance and the Socialist Left Party.

Over half of those who voted for the Labour Party are over 50 years old, while only 10 per cent are below 30 compared with previous elections where the ratio was 37 to 18 per cent.

The proportion of the older voters has also increased within the Progress Party (from 38 to 53 per cent) while the younger proportion declined from 23 to 14 per cent. The age distribution in the Conservative Party is however stable compared with 1997 with a slight increase in voters between 30 and 50 years.

Most young voters can be found in the Red Election Alliance and the Socialist Left Party. Youth below 30 years comprise only 15 per cent of those who used their voting rights. This puts in perspective, the question of voter participation among the different groups within the population.

 

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