Storting election, election survey, 2009

Most switching goes between parties that are ideologically close to each other. These are some of the findings published from the Electoral Study today. The study was conducted by Statistics Norway and the Institute for Social Research.

Lowest party-switch in 20 years

Party-switching increased in every election from 1985, and reached a peak in 2005. Thirty-nine per cent of voters switched party from 2001 to 2005. In 2009, party-switching dropped significantly to 31 per cent. We need to go back 20 years to find equally low numbers for party-switching in Norway.

Transitions between parties

Table 2 shows individual party-switching including non-voters. Calculations are based on those who participated both in 2005 and 2009. As the parties have different strengths, we do not comment on figures for specific parties. However, we note that only 4 per cent of the participants were non-voters at both elections, which is about the same level as in the preceding election.

Net changes

As voters between parties, parties both lose and gain voters. In table 2, net changes between parties are reported. Negative signs indicate that the party lost more than they gained from a party, while positive signs indicate that they gained more than they lost.

Red has a net loss to Socialist Left and Labour, indicating that have not managed to gain voters in being the only oppositional party to the left. They shared this position with the Socialist Left until Socialist Left came in position after the election in 2005.

The Socialist Left have a net gain of voters from Red (and Progress Party), but also a net loss to Labour, Centre and the Conservatives. Socialist Left is also having a net loss to the Liberals.

Labour has a net gain of voters from Red and the parties they are cooperating with in government, while losing to the Conservatives and the Progress Party. Centre is more or less in balance with all parties except for the ones in government: Centre is having a net gain from Socialist Left, but a bigger loss to Labour.

The Liberal Party is losing most to the Conservatives, but also has significant losses to Labour and non-voters. Christian Democrats are in balance with all parties on the left, indicating small exchanges with these parties. The party wins some voters from Centre, while it has net losses to the Conservatives, the Progress Party and non-voters.

The Conservatives is the only party in 2009 with no net losses to any party or non-voters. The biggest gain is towards the Liberal Party, but they also gain voters from the Progress Party and Christian Democratic Party. They also gain voters from the government parties except Centre. Except for the clear loss of voters to the Conservatives, the Progress Party is more or less in balance with all the other parties.

Electoral turnout

The pattern in electoral turnout in 2009 is more or less equal to what is found in earlier elections with regard to sex and age. Turnout increases as voters grow older. Among first and second time voters, turnout is below 60 per cent, while turnout among those who have been eligible to vote at least 4 times is about 80 per cent. Turnout is equal among men and women, while there is some variation between genders depending on age. Among first time voters, the difference is statistically significant. Why this is the case will be covered in later analyses.

For further information: Trenden er brutt - færre skifter parti (Samfunnsspeilet 2/2010)

Tables:

• Table 1 Proportion of switchers from one election to the next. 1965-2009. Per cent
• Table 2 Voters in 2005, by voting in 2005 and 2009. Per cent
• Table 3 Net switching between parties 2005-2009. Per cent (N = 690)
• Table 4 Electoral turnout in 2005 and 2009, bye sex and age (adjusted for virtual turnout). Per cent