Decline in retail sales

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The seasonally-adjusted volume index of retail sales decreased by 2.0 percent from November to December 2019. This follows an increase of 1.0 percent from October to November 2019.

Written by: Marius Bergh

The long-term trend in the retail sales peaked in the middle of 2019, and has declined after that.

Figure 1. Retail sales volume index, seasonally adjusted and trend. 2015=100

Retail trade, except sales of motor vehicles seasonally adjusted Retail trade, except sales of motor vehicles trend
Jan. 2013 99.5 98.2
Feb. 2013 98.9 98.4
Mar. 2013 98.6 98.6
Apr. 2013 97.4 98.6
May. 2013 100.1 98.6
June 2013 99.2 98.7
July 2013 98.3 98.7
Aug. 2013 98.7 98.7
Sep. 2013 99.1 98.6
Oct. 2013 98.2 98.6
Nov. 2013 98.4 98.7
Dec. 2013 98.8 98.8
Jan. 2014 99.0 99.1
Feb. 2014 99.5 99.4
Mar. 2014 100.1 99.7
Apr. 2014 100.8 100.0
May. 2014 99.8 100.2
June 2014 100.9 100.2
July 2014 99.0 100.2
Aug. 2014 99.9 100.2
Sep. 2014 100.3 100.2
Oct. 2014 100.1 100.2
Nov. 2014 99.9 100.2
Dec. 2014 100.7 100.4
Jan. 2015 100.0 100.5
Feb. 2015 100.8 100.6
Mar. 2015 100.9 100.6
Apr. 2015 103.5 100.6
May. 2015 98.8 100.5
June 2015 100.1 100.3
July 2015 100.4 100.3
Aug. 2015 100.9 100.3
Sep. 2015 100.1 100.4
Oct. 2015 100.8 100.4
Nov. 2015 100.3 100.5
Dec. 2015 100.1 100.3
Jan. 2016 100.8 100.1
Feb. 2016 99.8 99.9
Mar. 2016 99.0 99.7
Apr. 2016 98.9 99.5
May. 2016 99.9 99.4
June 2016 99.9 99.4
July 2016 99.1 99.5
Aug. 2016 99.6 99.7
Sep. 2016 99.8 99.9
Oct. 2016 100.9 100.1
Nov. 2016 100.1 100.3
Dec. 2016 98.3 100.5
Jan. 2017 100.1 100.7
Feb. 2017 101.3 101.0
Mar. 2017 101.3 101.3
Apr. 2017 101.2 101.5
May. 2017 102.6 101.7
June 2017 102.5 101.7
July 2017 102.4 101.7
Aug. 2017 101.9 101.7
Sep. 2017 101.2 101.8
Oct. 2017 101.5 101.9
Nov. 2017 102.8 102.1
Dec. 2017 102.6 102.3
Jan. 2018 101.9 102.4
Feb. 2018 102.6 102.6
Mar. 2018 102.4 102.7
Apr. 2018 103.0 102.7
May. 2018 105.3 102.8
June 2018 102.1 102.8
July 2018 102.4 102.7
Aug. 2018 102.9 102.6
Sep. 2018 102.4 102.5
Oct. 2018 102.3 102.5
Nov. 2018 102.8 102.4
Dec. 2018 101.8 102.4
Jan. 2019 103.1 102.5
Feb. 2019 101.7 102.5
Mar. 2019 102.3 102.6
Apr. 2019 104.3 102.8
May. 2019 102.9 103.0
June 2019 102.4 103.1
July 2019 103.3 103.2
Aug. 2019 103.3 103.2
Sep. 2019 103.3 103.0
Oct. 2019 102.3 102.8
Nov. 2019 103.3 102.5
Dec. 2019 101.2 102.3

To adjust for the changed pre-Christmas shopping pattern it is interesting to look at the totals for November and December. The calendar adjusted volumes for the period November – December 2019 was the same as the previous year.

Changing pre-Christmas shopping pattern

The emergence of Black Friday, and increased online shopping, has changed the pre-Christmas shopping pattern over the last few years. This is a relatively new phenomenon, which means that seasonal adjustment may not yet correct for this new shopping pattern optimally. A consequence of this is that the seasonally adjusted indices of the months affected by this change may be more uncertain.

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