Decrease in retail sales

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The seasonally-adjusted volume index of retail sales decreased by 0.1 percent from December 2020 to January 2021. This follows a decrease of 5.7 percent from November to December.

Written by: Marie Karoline Skjeldås

New figures from the retail trade index show a decrease in the seasonal adjusted volume for January. The pandemic and regulations imposed to limit infections have contributed to Norwegians changing their consumption pattern in the direction of spending less on services, and more on retail goods. These changes in the shopping pattern of the Norwegian people have made the seasonally adjusted figures more volatile.

1 March 2020 and the subsequent months are specified as outliers in the seasonal adjustment routine. Hence, the trend figures for the latest months are not included in the figure.

Figure 1. Retail sales volume index, seasonally adjusted and trend. 2015=100

Seasonally adjusted Trend
Jan. 2015 100.0 100.6
Feb. 2015 100.8 100.7
March 2015 100.9 100.7
April 2015 103.5 100.7
May 2015 98.7 100.5
June 2015 100.1 100.4
July 2015 100.4 100.3
Aug. 2015 100.9 100.3
Sep. 2015 100.1 100.3
Oct. 2015 100.8 100.4
Nov. 2015 100.3 100.4
Dec. 2015 100.2 100.3
Jan. 2016 100.8 100.1
Feb. 2016 99.7 99.8
March 2016 99.0 99.6
April 2016 98.8 99.4
May 2016 99.9 99.4
June 2016 99.9 99.4
July 2016 99.1 99.5
Aug. 2016 99.6 99.7
Sep. 2016 99.8 99.9
Oct. 2016 101.0 100.1
Nov. 2016 100.2 100.3
Dec. 2016 98.3 100.5
Jan. 2017 100.2 100.8
Feb. 2017 101.3 101.0
March 2017 101.3 101.3
April 2017 101.1 101.5
May 2017 102.6 101.7
June 2017 102.5 101.7
July 2017 102.3 101.7
Aug. 2017 101.9 101.7
Sep. 2017 101.2 101.8
Oct. 2017 101.6 101.9
Nov. 2017 102.9 102.1
Dec. 2017 102.7 102.3
Jan. 2018 102.0 102.5
Feb. 2018 102.4 102.6
March 2018 102.4 102.7
April 2018 102.9 102.7
May 2018 105.2 102.7
June 2018 102.1 102.7
July 2018 102.4 102.6
Aug. 2018 102.9 102.6
Sep. 2018 102.3 102.5
Oct. 2018 102.3 102.5
Nov. 2018 102.8 102.5
Dec. 2018 101.9 102.5
Jan. 2019 103.3 102.5
Feb. 2019 101.5 102.5
March 2019 102.4 102.6
April 2019 104.2 102.7
May 2019 102.8 102.9
June 2019 102.4 103.0
July 2019 103.2 103.1
Aug. 2019 103.2 103.1
Sep. 2019 103.2 103.0
Oct. 2019 102.4 102.9
Nov. 2019 103.4 102.8
Dec. 2019 101.4 102.8
Jan. 2020 101.7 102.9
Feb. 2020 103.5 103.1
March 2020 102.5 102.5
April 2020 107.3
May 2020 110.4
June 2020 116.6
July 2020 117.4
Aug. 2020 111.7
Sep. 2020 112.1
Oct. 2020 113.5
Nov. 2020 116.8
Dec. 2020 110.1
Jan. 2021 110.0

Clothing stores contributed to the decline

The largest contribution to the decline in the seasonally adjusted volume index in January was reduced sales in clothing stores. Other branches such as gas stations and furniture shops also contributed to the decline, but did so significantly less than clothing stores. Stores selling sporting equipment in specialized stores, however, experienced an increase in seasonally adjusted volume. Grocery stores and online shopping also increased their sales volume in January. The growth in these branches dampened the overall decline.

The seasonal adjustment routine has been adjusted during the Corona-crisis

Thursday 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. This has led to a change in the shopping pattern since March compared to what we usually observe. The seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures from the start of and during the crisis (from March), are not included in the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine, this is done by specifying March and following months as outliers.

This means that the usual trend figures will not be calculated, and instead the trend and seasonal adjusted figures will follow each other. One important exception is the last observation, where the trend figure which is calculated in the seasonal adjusted routine will only be a projected value and the last observation is therefore not included. The trend figures from March 2020 and the following moths will therefore be difficult to interpret.

The seasonal adjustment routine of Statistics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.

Differences between the volume index of retail sales and the index of household consumption of goods

The volume index of retail sales (DOI) is one of the central sources in the calculation of the index of household consumption of goods (VKI). There are still usually differences in the development of these two indices, and there are several reasons for this. VKI covers the households’ consumption of electricity and heating fuel, and the purchases of vehicles. This is not included in DOI. The two indices are also weighted differently. The difference in weighting has a particular big effect when there are large differences between the different industries of the retail sector. The reason behind the difference in weighting between DOI and VKI is that VKI is a measure of the household consumption of goods, while DOI describes the development in the retail sector.

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