Increase in retail sales

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The seasonally-adjusted volume index of retail sales increased by 0.6 percent from February to March 2019. This follows a decrease of 1.2 percent from January to February.

Written by: Marie Skjeldås

The long-term trend in retail sales has increased by 3.4 percent between the turning point in May 2016 and the peak around the summer of 2018. After the summer of 2018 there has been a weak downward trend, but in the last few months the trend has shown signs of flattening out.

Figure 1. Retail sales volume index, seasonally adjusted and trend. 2015=100

Retail trade, except sales of motor vehicles seasonally adjusted Retail trade, except sales of motor vehicles trend
Jan. 2013 99.4 98.2
Feb. 2013 98.9 98.4
Mar. 2013 98.6 98.5
Apr. 2013 97.4 98.6
May. 2013 100.0 98.6
June 2013 99.1 98.6
July 2013 98.4 98.6
Aug. 2013 98.6 98.6
Sep. 2013 99.1 98.6
Oct. 2013 98.2 98.6
Nov. 2013 98.5 98.7
Dec. 2013 98.8 98.8
Jan. 2014 98.9 99.1
Feb. 2014 99.5 99.4
Mar. 2014 100.0 99.7
Apr. 2014 100.9 100.0
May. 2014 99.9 100.2
June 2014 100.8 100.2
July 2014 99.0 100.2
Aug. 2014 99.8 100.2
Sep. 2014 100.4 100.2
Oct. 2014 100.1 100.2
Nov. 2014 99.9 100.2
Dec. 2014 100.7 100.4
Jan. 2015 100.0 100.5
Feb. 2015 100.7 100.6
Mar. 2015 100.8 100.6
Apr. 2015 103.6 100.6
May. 2015 98.8 100.5
June 2015 100.2 100.4
July 2015 100.5 100.3
Aug. 2015 100.8 100.3
Sep. 2015 100.1 100.4
Oct. 2015 100.8 100.5
Nov. 2015 100.4 100.5
Dec. 2015 100.0 100.4
Jan. 2016 100.6 100.2
Feb. 2016 99.9 99.9
Mar. 2016 99.0 99.7
Apr. 2016 99.0 99.5
May. 2016 99.9 99.4
June 2016 99.8 99.4
July 2016 99.1 99.5
Aug. 2016 99.6 99.7
Sep. 2016 99.7 99.8
Oct. 2016 101.0 100.0
Nov. 2016 100.4 100.2
Dec. 2016 98.0 100.4
Jan. 2017 100.0 100.7
Feb. 2017 101.3 101.0
Mar. 2017 101.2 101.2
Apr. 2017 101.4 101.5
May. 2017 102.6 101.6
June 2017 102.3 101.7
July 2017 102.5 101.7
Aug. 2017 101.9 101.7
Sep. 2017 101.3 101.8
Oct. 2017 101.5 101.8
Nov. 2017 103.2 102.0
Dec. 2017 102.2 102.2
Jan. 2018 101.7 102.4
Feb. 2018 102.5 102.5
Mar. 2018 102.4 102.6
Apr. 2018 103.1 102.7
May. 2018 105.1 102.8
June 2018 102.1 102.8
July 2018 102.6 102.8
Aug. 2018 102.9 102.7
Sep. 2018 102.3 102.6
Oct. 2018 102.2 102.5
Nov. 2018 103.4 102.4
Dec. 2018 101.2 102.3
Jan. 2019 102.8 102.3
Feb. 2019 101.6 102.3
Mar. 2019 102.2 102.3

Working-day adjusted figures for the period January– March 2019 show no change compared to the same period one year earlier.

Seasonally-adjusted figures for March and April are more uncertain

Due to Easter, it is difficult to compare the sales index for March and April with the corresponding months in 2018. The seasonally-adjusted index takes the Easter holidays in March or April into Account, but it is difficult to correct for Easter shopping. Therefore, the seasonally-adjusted index for March is more uncertain than the seasonally-adjusted indices for the other months.

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