The corona pandemic causes major sector differences in retail sales

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The seasonally-adjusted volume index of retail sales decreased by 0.9 percent from February to March 2020. This follows an increase of 2.0 percent from January to February. The Corona-virus and strict infection control measures lead to a big change in the shopping pattern in Norway.

Written by: Marie Karoline Skjeldås

The long-term trend in retail sales now shows a peak in the summer of 2019, followed by a decrease in the fall. Due to the treatment of March as an extreme value, the trend for the recent months is not representable for the actual development in retail sales. The trend for the most recent months has therefore been excluded from the figure. For more information on this, see the information box at the bottom of the article.

Figure 1. Retail sales volume index, seasonally adjusted and trend. 2015=100

Seasonally adjusted Trend
Mar. 2014 100.1 99.7
Apr. 2014 100.7 100.0
May. 2014 99.8 100.2
Jun. 2014 100.9 100.2
Jul. 2014 99.0 100.2
Aug. 2014 99.9 100.2
Sep. 2014 100.3 100.2
Oct. 2014 100.1 100.2
Nov. 2014 99.9 100.2
Dec. 2014 100.8 100.4
Jan. 2015 100.0 100.5
Feb. 2015 100.8 100.6
Mar. 2015 100.9 100.7
Apr. 2015 103.5 100.6
May. 2015 98.7 100.5
Jun. 2015 100.1 100.3
Jul. 2015 100.4 100.3
Aug. 2015 100.9 100.3
Sep. 2015 100.1 100.3
Oct. 2015 100.8 100.4
Nov. 2015 100.3 100.4
Dec. 2015 100.2 100.3
Jan. 2016 100.8 100.1
Feb. 2016 99.7 99.8
Mar. 2016 99.0 99.6
Apr. 2016 98.9 99.4
May. 2016 99.9 99.4
Jun. 2016 99.9 99.4
Jul. 2016 99.1 99.5
Aug. 2016 99.6 99.7
Sep. 2016 99.8 99.9
Oct. 2016 100.9 100.1
Nov. 2016 100.2 100.3
Dec. 2016 98.3 100.5
Jan. 2017 100.1 100.8
Feb. 2017 101.3 101.0
Mar. 2017 101.4 101.3
Apr. 2017 101.1 101.6
May. 2017 102.6 101.7
Jun. 2017 102.5 101.7
Jul. 2017 102.3 101.7
Aug. 2017 101.9 101.8
Sep. 2017 101.2 101.8
Oct. 2017 101.6 101.9
Nov. 2017 102.9 102.1
Dec. 2017 102.6 102.3
Jan. 2018 102.0 102.5
Feb. 2018 102.5 102.6
Mar. 2018 102.4 102.7
Apr. 2018 102.9 102.7
May. 2018 105.3 102.8
Jun. 2018 102.1 102.8
Jul. 2018 102.4 102.7
Aug. 2018 102.9 102.6
Sep. 2018 102.3 102.6
Oct. 2018 102.3 102.5
Nov. 2018 102.9 102.5
Dec. 2018 101.7 102.5
Jan. 2019 103.3 102.5
Feb. 2019 101.5 102.5
Mar. 2019 102.4 102.6
Apr. 2019 104.3 102.8
May. 2019 102.9 102.9
Jun. 2019 102.4 103.1
Jul. 2019 103.2 103.2
Aug. 2019 103.2 103.1
Sep. 2019 103.3 103.0
Oct. 2019 102.3 102.8
Nov. 2019 103.4 102.8
Dec. 2019 101.1 102.8
Jan. 2020 101.6
Feb. 2020 103.6
Mar. 2020 102.7

Strong growth for grocery stores in March

There were major differences in the changes in the seasonally adjusted sales volume for the various retail sectors in March. Grocery stores grew 11 percent this month and helped pull the overall index up. This sector accounts for around 40 per cent of sales in the retail sales index. Other industries that also experienced sales growth in March were e-commerce and pharmacy.

On the other hand, there was a sharp decline in sales volume for stores selling clothing and shoes. Gas stations and stores selling sports equipment also experienced a significant decline in the seasonally adjusted sales volume

Seasonally-adjusted figures show that retail sales volume increased by 0.3 percent in January to March 2020, compared to October 2019 to December 2019.

The seasonal adjustment routine has been adjusted during the Corona-crisis

Thursday 12th of March 2020 the Norwegian government introduced actions against the spreading of the Corona-virus in Norway. After these actions were put in motion many shops decided to temporarily close down or reduce their opening hours. This has led to a change in the shopping pattern compared to what we usually observe. The seasonal adjustment routine during the Corona- crisis is done in such a way that the figures during the crisis (for March), are not included in the basis for the calculation of the seasonal pattern. Technically, in the seasonal adjustment routine this is done by specifying March as an outlier. The seasonal adjustment routine of Statics Norway is in line with the recommendations of Eurostat.

The trend figure for March which is calculated in the seasonal adjustment routine, will only be a projected value, and is therefore difficult to interpret in March.

On the effect of Easter

It is important to be aware that the uncertainty for the calendar-adjusted and seasonally-adjusted indices for March and April is greater than normal due to the changing placing of Easter from year to year. This is accounted for when adjusting for seasonal variations. However, it can still be difficult to adjust for all impacts.

Response rate for March

Due to closed shops and layoffs the source data is less than normal. The response rate for the sample part of the survey for March 2020 is 90 percent, compared to 96 percent the previous month. This also causes the figures to be more uncertain. At the same time Statistics Norway receives data from the biggest store chains in Norway. The response rate for this part of the survey was 99 percent – about the same as the previous month.

Differences between the volume index of retail sales and the index of household consumption of goods

The volume index of retail sales (DOI) is one of the central sources in the calculation of the index of household consumption of goods (VKI). There are still usually differences in the development of these two indices, and there are several reasons for this. VKI covers the households’ consumption of electricity and heating fuel, and the purchases of vehicles. This is not included in DOI. The two indices are also weighted differently. The difference in weighting has a particular big effect when there are large differences between the different industries of the retail sector, as was the case in March.

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