Index of household consumption of goods, March 2003

The unadjusted volume index of commodity consumption was 0.5 per cent lower in March 2003 than in March 2002.

While all sub indices show a decrease seasonally adjusted, it is purchase of vehicles and petrol that pulls down the most with 3.6 per cent from February to March. Unadjusted from the same period in the previous year this index decreased by 1.4 per cent. Consumption of food, beverages and tobacco and consumption of electricity and heating fuels decreases seasonally adjusted by 1,0 and 2,6 per cent, respectively, from February to March. The same sub indices also decreases unadjusted from March 2002 to March 2003 by 5.9 and 2.3 per cent, respectively. Consumption of other goods showed a slight decrease seasonally adjusted by 0.6 per cent from February to March, while the index increased by 8.0 per cent unadjusted from March 2002 to March 2003.

Uncertainty due to Easter

Note that the Easter holidays this year is in April, while it was in March last year. This gives rise to uncertainty in the calculation and interpretation of the figures. Comparing unadjusted figures for the same period in different years is difficult due to the extreme growth rates that can occur. Furthermore the seasonal adjustment of figures with a strong presence of calendar effects, such as Easter holidays, is a rather complex matter, and a larger uncertainty than normal is thus entailed. This uncertainty can also result in revisions, as more information or figures for more periods is included in the calculation. The last source of revisions in the seasonally adjusted figures is the prolonging of the time series used in the estimation of the seasonal patterns from January 1980 back to January 1978.

Method differs from the index of retail sale

The index of commodity consumption aims at describing the development in the households' consumption of goods, while the index of retail sales is an index measuring the development in retail sales. As opposed to the index of retail sales, the index of commodity consumption also includes goods not sold in retail trade, it is based on sales of additional industries and calculated with a weighting consistent with the share of the sales actually allocated to the households. This can result in deviations in the development of the two indices. The calculation of the index of commodity consumption is based on information from the index of retail sales. In addition, the index of commodity consumption uses information about purchases of cars, sales of petrol and oil to petrol stations and consumption of electricity unadjusted for changes in temperature.

The index of commodity consumption uses the same definitions and nearly the same methods of compilation as the Quarterly National Accounts. The index of commodity consumption is thus an indicator of household consumption of goods in the Quarterly National Accounts. The components of the index of commodity consumption are individually seasonally adjusted.