Decline in fertility

Published:

A total of 55 100 children were born in Norway in 2018, which is 1 500 fewer than 2017. This gives a total fertility rate (TFR) for women of 1.56.

Written by: Espen Andersen

The total fertility rate (TRF) of 1.56 is the lowest ever registered. The TFR has declined every year since 2009. In 2009 total fertility rate was 1.98. Fertility has thus decreased by almost half a child per woman in the last decade.

Figure 1. Total fertility rate (TRF) for women, 1970-2018

TRF
1970 2.5
1971 2.49
1972 2.38
1973 2.23
1974 2.13
1975 1.98
1976 1.86
1977 1.75
1978 1.77
1979 1.75
1980 1.72
1981 1.701
1982 1.708
1983 1.655
1984 1.658
1985 1.677
1986 1.710
1987 1.745
1988 1.841
1989 1.887
1990 1.932
1991 1.918
1992 1.885
1993 1.860
1994 1.865
1995 1.869
1996 1.889
1997 1.857
1998 1.814
1999 1.845
2000 1.851
2001 1.784
2002 1.754
2003 1.797
2004 1.828
2005 1.836
2006 1.904
2007 1.901
2008 1.957
2009 1.979
2010 1.946
2011 1.880
2012 1.851
2013 1.782
2014 1.756
2015 1.730
2016 1.71
2017 1.62
2018 1.56

Age of birth is increasing

An important reason for the decline in fertility in recent years is that more and more women are postponing the birth of their first child. The mean age for a woman at the first child’s birth was 29.5 years. Thirty years ago, the corresponding age was about 25 years. For men, the mean age at their first child’s birth was 31.8 years.

Figure 2. Mean age of parent at first child's birth, 1961-2018

Mother Father
1961 24.6 28.2
1962 24.3 27.9
1963 24.0 27.5
1964 23.8 27.2
1965 23.6 26.9
1966 23.4 26.6
1967 23.3 26.3
1968 23.3 26.2
1969 23.3 26
1970 23.2 26
1971 23.3 26
1972 23.3 25.9
1973 23.4 26
1974 23.5 26.1
1975 23.5 26.2
1976 23.6 26.4
1977 23.8 26.5
1978 24.1 26.8
1979 24.1 27
1980 24.3 27.1
1981 24.4 27.2
1982 24.5 27.3
1983 24.7 27.5
1984 24.9 27.7
1985 25.0 27.7
1986 25.1 27.8
1987 25.1 28
1988 25.2 28.1
1989 25.3 28.1
1990 25.5 28.3
1991 25.7 28.4
1992 25.9 28.5
1993 26 28.8
1994 26.3 28.9
1995 26.5 29
1996 26.7 29.2
1997 27 29.5
1998 27.2 29.7
1999 27.2 29.9
2000 27.3 30.1
2001 27.5 30.3
2002 27.7 30.5
2003 27.9 30.7
2004 28 30.8
2005 28.1 30.9
2006 28.1 30.8
2007 28.1 30.9
2008 28.1 30.9
2009 28.1 30.9
2010 28.1 30.8
2011 28.3 31.1
2012 28.5 31.2
2013 28.6 31.3
2014 28.7 31.3
2015 28.9 31.4
2016 29 31.5
2017 29.3 31.7
2018 29.5 31.8

Fewer women with many children

Another reason for the decline in fertility is that the percentage of women who give birth to three children or more has declined. In 2018, the proportion of 45-year-old women who had given birth to three children or more was 29.3 per cent.

Figure 3. Women in selected cohorts of births, by number of children at age 45

4 + children 3 children 2 children 1 child No children
1935 22.2 27.4 30.4 10.4 9.6
1940 17.6 29.1 33.7 10.1 9.5
1945 11.3 26.4 41.5 11.8 9.0
1950 8.4 23.5 45.4 13.3 9.4
1955 8.1 24.2 42.1 14.3 11.2
1960 9.2 25.6 39.4 13.8 11.9
1965 8.4 24.7 40.2 14.2 12.5
1970 7.6 23.1 41.2 14.7 13.4
1973 7.2 22.2 42.0 15.4 13.3

Declines in multiple births

Of 54 400 births, there were 804 sets of twins and 16 sets of triplets, which corresponds to 15.1 multiple births per 1 000 births. This is the lowest share since 1994.

 

 

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