Decline in fertility

Published:

A total of 53 000 children were born in 2020, 1 500 fewer than 2019. This gives a total fertility rate (TRF) for women of 1.48.

Written by: Espen Andersen

A total fertility rate (TRF) of 1.48 is the lowest ever registered. The total fertility rate has declined every year since 2009. In 2009 total fertility rate was 1.98. Fertility has thus decreased by half a child per woman in the last decade.

It is especially the fertility of women between the ages of 20 and 30 that has declined considerably.

Figure 1. Total fertility rate (TRF) 1979-2020

All women Immigrant women
1970 2.50
1971 2.49
1972 2.38
1973 2.23
1974 2.13
1975 1.98
1976 1.86
1977 1.75
1978 1.77
1979 1.75
1980 1.72
1981 1.70
1982 1.71
1983 1.66
1984 1.66
1985 1.68
1986 1.71
1987 1.75
1988 1.84
1989 1.89
1990 1.93
1991 1.92
1992 1.89
1993 1.86
1994 1.87
1995 1.87
1996 1.89
1997 1.86
1998 1.81
1999 1.85
2000 1.85 2.54
2001 1.78 2.33
2002 1.75 2.32
2003 1.80 2.36
2004 1.83 2.35
2005 1.84 2.34
2006 1.90 2.37
2007 1.90 2.31
2008 1.96 2.25
2009 1.98 2.26
2010 1.95 2.29
2011 1.88 2.12
2012 1.85 2.05
2013 1.78 1.98
2014 1.76 1.95
2015 1.73 1.94
2016 1.71 1.92
2017 1.62 1.93
2018 1.56 1.87
2019 1.53 1.77
2020 1.48 1.68

The fertility rate for immigrants has traditionally been higher than among the rest of the population. In 2020 TRF for immigrant woman was 1.68.

Age of birth is increasing

An important reason for the decline in fertility in recent years is that more and more women are postponing their first birth. The mean age for a woman at the first child’s birth was 29.9 years an increase by 0.1 year compared to 2019. Thirty years ago, the corresponding age was about 25 years. For men, the mean age at their first child’s birth was 32,1 years, also an increase by 0.1 year compared to last year.

Figure 2. Mean age of parent at first child's birth, 1961-2020

Mother Father
1961 24.6 28.2
1962 24.3 27.9
1963 24.0 27.5
1964 23.8 27.2
1965 23.6 26.9
1966 23.4 26.6
1967 23.3 26.3
1968 23.3 26.2
1969 23.3 26.0
1970 23.2 26.0
1971 23.3 26.0
1972 23.3 25.9
1973 23.4 26.0
1974 23.5 26.1
1975 23.5 26.2
1976 23.6 26.4
1977 23.8 26.5
1978 24.1 26.8
1979 24.1 27.0
1980 24.3 27.1
1981 24.4 27.2
1982 24.5 27.3
1983 24.7 27.5
1984 24.9 27.7
1985 25.0 27.7
1986 25.1 27.8
1987 25.1 28.0
1988 25.2 28.1
1989 25.3 28.1
1990 25.5 28.3
1991 25.7 28.4
1992 25.9 28.5
1993 26.0 28.8
1994 26.3 28.9
1995 26.5 29.0
1996 26.7 29.2
1997 27.0 29.5
1998 27.2 29.7
1999 27.2 29.9
2000 27.3 30.1
2001 27.5 30.3
2002 27.7 30.5
2003 27.9 30.7
2004 28.0 30.8
2005 28.1 30.9
2006 28.1 30.8
2007 28.1 30.9
2008 28.1 30.9
2009 28.1 30.9
2010 28.1 30.8
2011 28.3 31.1
2012 28.5 31.2
2013 28.6 31.3
2014 28.7 31.3
2015 28.9 31.4
2016 29.0 31.5
2017 29.3 31.7
2018 29.5 31.8
2019 29.8 32
2019 29.9 32.1

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