Oil and gas activities, investments, Q2 2002

Compared with the estimate for 2002 given in the first quarter, this represents an upward adjustment of NOK 1.5 billion, 2.7 per cent.

Estimates for 2003 are now collected for the first time, and they came to NOK 51.8 billion for oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport. This estimate is more than NOK 23 billion higher than the estimate for 2002 given in the second quarter last year. The first time estimate for 2003 is based on more complete reports from the operators than in previous years. Comparison with the corresponding estimate for 2002 must therefore be made with caution.

Estimate for 2002: Moderate investments

The investments in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport in 2002 are now estimated to NOK 57.3 billion. If we take into consideration the development in the investment estimates throughout the five most recent years - from the estimate in the second quarter in the year of investment till the final figures are ready - we can see that the estimates on average were upward adjusted by 4.1 per cent. If the development of the estimates for 2002 develops in a similar way, the final investment figures for 2002 will be in the magnitude of NOK 60 billion.

The estimated investments for exploration activity in 2002 are now NOK 5.2 billion. Compared with the first quarter this is a slight increase in the estimate. The new licences in the North Sea round and the 17. licensing round might result in higher investments throughout the year, and continue into 2003.

Concerning the investments for field development, these are estimated at NOK 17.8 billion. The last few years the investments for field development have had a declining tendency. It was expected that this trend would turn in 2002 due to the development of Kristin and Snøhvit. This does not seem to be the case, mainly due to the fact that Statoil has held back some investments on Snøhvit in anticipation of a clarification from the ESA. It is possible that the trend will turn in 2003.

Investments for fields on stream are now estimated at NOK 29.3 billion. This represents a downward adjustment of NOK 0.7 billion compared with the previous quarter. Compared with final figures for 2001, the estimate for 2002 is NOK 2.1 billion higher.

The onshore activity is now estimated at NOK 3.7 billion. Most of this is due to the developments on Melkøya and Kårstø.

Estimate for 2003: High first time estimate

In the second quarter of each year, the estimate for the following year is published. The first estimate for 2003 is high compared with the estimate given for 2002 in the second quarter of 2001. Part of the increase is due to a more complete data collection of the long-term estimates from the operators. The published estimate is accordingly closer to the actual investments than earlier estimates. Based on this, it is difficult to interpret the comparison with estimates given at the same time for earlier years.

The total investments in 2003 are estimated at NOK 51.8 billion. This is NOK 23.4 billion higher than the estimate given for 2002 in the second quarter 2001.

The investments for exploration activity seem to increase in 2003, compared with 2002. The estimated investments are now NOK 5.6 billion, NOK 0.6 billion higher than the last estimate for 2002. The new licences in the North Sea round and the 17. licensing round might give even higher investments throughout 2003, but the budgetary process in the licences might reduce the investments.

Concerning field development and fields on stream, the estimates are NOK 14.8 and 22.3 billion respectively. These investments will most likely increase as we come closer to the final investments.

Investment in the onshore activity is now estimated at a record high level of investment of NOK 7.1 billion, caused by the development of Melkøya and Kårstø.

Tables:

• Table 1 Accrued and estimated investment costs. Extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas and transport via pipelines. 1998-2003. Million NOK
• Table 2 Accrued investment costs for oil and gas exploration, by cost category. Q1 2000 - Q1 2002. Million NOK
• Table 3 Accrued investment costs for field development and fields on stream. Q1 2000-Q1 2002. Million NOK
• Table 4 Estimated and accrued investment costs for oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport. 1985-2003