Oil and gas activities, investments, Q3 2002

This is an upward adjustment in 2002 and 2003 of NOK 1.4 and 3.4 billion respectively.

Estimate for 2002: Fields on stream exceed NOK 30 billion

The investments in oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport in 2002 are now estimated at NOK 58.6 billion. This is NOK 1.5 billion higher than the final investments in 2001. Compared with the estimate given for 2001 in the third quarter of 2001, the estimate for 2002 is NOK 2.0 billion higher. From experience we see that the estimate given in August in the year of investment is within 5 per cent variance from the final investments. If the course of development for 2002 follows this pattern, the final investments in 2002 will end between NOK 56.0 and 62.0 billion.

The registered investments for exploration activity in the second quarter were NOK 0.9 billion. This is the lowest investment in one single quarter since the first quarter 1989. The estimated investments for 2002 are however just marginally downward adjusted compared with the previous quarter. The estimated investments are now NOK 5.2 billion.

Concerning the investments for field development, these are now estimated at NOK 18.0 billion, an increase of 0.2 billion from the previous quarter. At the time being, the investments in 2002 are NOK 2.2 billion less than the final investments in 2001.

The investments for fields on stream continue to increase. The estimated investments for fields on stream are now NOK 30.7 billion. This represents an upward adjustment of NOK 1.4 billion compared with the previous quarter. Compared with final figures for 2001, the estimate for 2002 is NOK 3.5 billion higher.

The onshore activity, and pipeline transportation are now estimated at NOK 3.6 and 1.2 billion respectively.

Estimate for 2003: High estimates

The estimates for 2003 are, as the figures from the second quarter also showed, build on a more complete data collection from the operators. The published estimate is accordingly closer to the actual investments than earlier estimates. Based on this, it is difficult to interpret the comparison with estimates given at the same time for earlier years.

The total investments in 2003 are estimated at NOK 55.2 billion. This is a NOK 3.4 billion upgrade compared with the estimate given in the second quarter.

The investments for exploration activity seem to increase in 2003, compared with 2002. The estimated investments are now NOK 6.7 billion. This estimate is NOK 1.1 billion higher than in the previous quarter. The strong increase from the second to the third quarter might be due to reported estimates from the newly awarded licences.

Concerning field development and fields on stream, the estimates are now NOK 15.9 and 23.9 billion. The estimates are adjusted upward by NOK 1.1 and 1.6 billion respectively. These investments will most likely increase as we come closer to the final investments. It seems that the investments for field development will increase for the first time since 1998.

Investments in onshore activity and pipeline transportation are now estimated at NOK 7.0 and 1.7 billion.

Tables:

• Table 1 Accrued and estimated investment costs. Extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas and transport via pipelines. 1999-2003. Million NOK
• Table 2 Accrued investment costs for oil and gas exploration, by cost category. Q2 2000 - Q2 2002. Million NOK
• Table 3 Accrued investment costs for field development and fields on stream. Q2 2000 - Q2 2002. Million NOK
• Table 4 Estimated and accrued investment costs for oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport. 1985-2003