Oil and gas activities, investments, Q3 2012

The estimate for 2012 is NOK 33.2 billion higher than the corresponding estimate for 2011, given in the 3rd quarter of 2011, while the estimate for 2013 is NOK 32.1 billion higher than the corresponding estimate for 2012, given in the 3rd quarter of 2011 (see figure). This indicates a strong increase in the investment level in 2012 and that the increase will continue in 2013.

Estimates for 2013

The estimate for 2013 is the highest estimate since Statistics Norway started collecting estimates in 1985 (measured in current prices). The increase for 2013 compared to the corresponding estimate for 2012 is due to higher investments in exploration, field development, fields on stream and onshore activity, while the estimate indicates a decrease in pipeline transportation.

The investments for exploration activity in 2013 are now estimated at NOK 40.7 billion, which is NOK 5.3 billion higher than the estimate given in the previous quarter. The estimate is NOK 8.3 billion higher than the estimation for 2012 given in the 3rd quarter of 2011.

Investments for field development and fields on stream in 2013 are estimated at NOK 159 billion. This is NOK 23.4 billion higher than the corresponding estimate given for 2012.

The licensees on the Norwegian Shelf plan to spend NOK 101.6 billion on the drilling of production and exploration wells in 2013. This is 49 per cent more than the accrued drilling costs in 2011. Four mobile rigs have reached the Norwegian Continental Shelf (NCS) so far this year. Another two rigs are expected to arrive at the NCS early next year. Nevertheless, there is reason to believe that some wells planned to be drilled in 2013 will be postponed to 2014.

However, it is expected that the authorities will approve many new development projects during the summer of 2013. The largest of these are Aasta Hansteen, Draupne and Dagny/Eirin. These projects will not be included in the investments survey before they are approved.

Estimates for 2012

Total investments in oil and gas activities for 2012, including pipeline transportation, are estimated at NOK 184.9 billion. The estimate is NOK 33.2 billion higher than the corresponding estimate for 2011 and NOK 1.7 billion lower than the estimate given in the previous quarter.

The accrued investments increased from NOK 38.5 billion in the 1st quarter to NOK 43 billion in the 2nd quarter. The operators’ estimates for the 3rd and 4th quarters are NOK 50 and NOK 53.4 billion respectively. Realisation of the current estimate for 2012 assumes a strong increase in the investment activity from the first half of the year to the second half. The drilling activity seen in July and August does not indicate a sharp increase in investment activity from the 2nd quarter to the 3rd quarter. There is therefore reason to believe that some of the investments planned for 2012 might be postponed to 2013.

Investments in the exploration activity in 2012 are estimated at NOK 29.2 billion, which is NOK 0.8 billion lower than the estimate given in the previous quarter. The estimate is also NOK 0.6 billion higher than the corresponding estimate for 2011, presented in the 3rd quarter of 2011.

Investments for field development and fields on stream are now estimated at NOK 150.7 billion; a decrease of NOK 1.1 billion compared with the estimate in the previous quarter and NOK 34.7 billion higher than the corresponding estimate for 2011.

Onshore activities and pipeline transportation are estimated at NOK 4.7 and NOK 0.4 billion respectively.

Tables:

• Table 1 Accrued and estimated investment costs. Extraction of crude petroleum and natural gas and transport via pipelines. 2008-2013. NOK million
• Table 2 Accrued investment costs for oil and gas exploration, by cost category. Q2 2010-Q2 2012. NOK million
• Table 3 Accrued investment costs for field development and fields on stream. Q2 2010-Q2 2012. NOK million
• Table 4 Estimated and accrued investment costs for oil and gas extraction and pipeline transport. 1985-2013