Sustained growth in the Norwegian economy

The fall in mainland GDP in August is mainly explained by weak numbers for agriculture, due to the drought, and fisheries. These two industries contributed to the drop in mainland growth of almost 0.5 percentage points. However, the decline in fisheries in August must be seen in combination with a sharp rise in July.

The decline in agriculture contributes to pull down mainland GDP for June-August by 0.1 percentage point. In May-July, growth was 0.8 per cent, compared to 0.6 per cent for June-August. The biggest contribution to the three-month growth came from aquaculture and ICT together with administrative and support services. Building and construction also made a positive contribution, and has been doing so for a long time, but the August estimates show a decrease in output compared with the previous month. Manufacturing and mining also grew during the three-month period June-August. The growth rate was 0.8 per cent, compared to 1 per cent, which was the three-month growth in July.

GDP for petroleum activities and ocean transport increased by 4.4 per cent in the period June-August compared with the previous three months. Production of crude oil and natural gas was high during the summer months and contributed to the rise. Overall, GDP increased by 1.1 per cent in the same period.

Weak growth in household goods consumption

Household consumption increased by 0.2 per cent in June-August compared to the previous three-month period. Behind this is a sharp decline in the goods consumption. In August, car purchases rose after weak numbers in July, but otherwise the consumer spending in June-August was weak compared to the previous three months. There was a total decline of 1.4 per cent this period. Service consumption has been relatively stable over several months, and on a three-month basis, growth is estimated at 0.8 per cent. Household consumption abroad has also had a clear growth especially in the last three months, and contributed to increase consumption. The growth in household consumption has been steadily declining in the last few months.

Final consumption expenditure of general government shows stable growth, and increased by 0.4 per cent in the period June-August.

Housing investments – decline levels out

Households' housing investment showed a rise in July, and stayed at this level in August. Overall, in June-August, the decline was 1.7 per cent compared to the previous three-month period. By comparison, the decline for May-July was 3.8 per cent, and for the second quarter (April-June) 4.6 per cent.

Government investment fell by 5 per cent in June-August. This must be seen in connection with registered investments in military aircrafts in May.

In terms of other investment, there is a lack of good-quality monthly information. This means that for oil investments, information about planned investments as reported by the companies is used. In the second quarter, oil investments increased by just over 13 per cent. The high rate of growth is projected based on this information.

Exports of traditional goods increase

Exports of traditional goods increased by 14.5 per cent in August and by 2.8 per cent for the three-month period June-August. Metals contributed about half of the growth in August. Imports of traditional goods fell throughout the summer months, and the decline this period was 2.2 per cent.

Revisions of previously published figures

With new monthly figures, come revisions. The statistics used will not normally be subject to a revision, but seasonally adjusted series may, however, be changed. This is a consequence of new information being incorporated into the seasonal adjustment. As additional months are included in the data, the effect of new observations will become smaller.

As of the August 2018 release, we adjust the manufacturing industry using longer time series than in the past. This change leads to revisions of seasonally adjusted figures for the industry from the previous monthly publication. We expect the change to lead to more stable historical figures in the future. This change does not affect the three-month growth for mainland GDP, either for June (Q2) or July, with 0.6 and 0.8 per cent respectively. There are also no changes in the three-month growth in household consumption, which was 1 and 0.5 per cent respectively in the second quarter and in May-July.