National accounts, December 1999

New information and new base year in the calculations of preliminary national accounts figures gave no revision in the corresponding figures for the mainland Norway, neither in 1998 nor in 1999.

The development in the final domestic use in constant prices remains unchanged for 1998, while the corresponding growth in 1999 is slightly reduced by 0.2 percentage points. According to the revised national accounts' estimates, the final domestic use in constant prices increased by 5.4 per cent from 1997 to 1998 and was reduced by 1.0 per cent from 1998 to 1999.

In 1999 the growth in the total consumption of households and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISHs) in constant prices is revised from 2.1 to 2.4 per cent. The revised figures show an increase in the households' consumption of goods and services of 1.2 and 3.6 per cent respectively. For consumption in general government there is a revision upward of 0.2 percentage points and the figures now show an increase of 2.7 per cent in constant prices. In 1998 the growth in the total consumption of households and NPISHs was adjusted with 0.2 percentage points up to 3.3 per cent. A revision in the figures for general government on 0.1 percentage points now gives an increase of 3.8 per cent from 1997 to 1998.

The revised figures give a decline in the industries' total gross fixed capital formation of 5.6 per cent from 1998 to 1999. This is a slighter reduction than earlier estimates. There was however a negative adjustment in the development in the total changes in stocks and statistical discrepancies which gives a stronger decrease in the gross capital formation than in the previous figures.

A positive revision in the current account

In 1999 the growth in the total export of goods and services was revised from 0.6 to 1.7 per cent in constant prices. This revision was mainly due to a revision in the export figures for ships and oil platforms, as well as a positive change in the figures for export of services. Revised figures give a reduction in total imports in 1999 of 3.1 in constant prises. This is a positive revision of 0.4 percentage points compared with figures published in February this year. The balance of trade with goods and services is revised by 2.4 percentage points up to a surplus of 2.4 billion NOK measured in current prices. In 1999 the surplus on the current account is revised from 43.8 to 46.9 billion NOK. In 1998 revised figures give a deficit on the current account on 14.3 billion NOK. The figures published in February this year, showed a deficit on 16.3 billion NOK.

Output in industries

There is to some extent a negative adjustment in figures for the development in total output in industries. From 1997 to 1998 the growth in the total output in industries was revised from 2.5 to 2.1 per cent in constant prices. In 1999 there was a decline in a number of the main industry aggregates, like manufacture industry, construction, mining and quarrying. This was more than compensated by increased output in the service industries; including general government. The revised figures show an increase of 0.9 per cent in the total output in industries in 1999, a negative revision of 0.2 percentage points compared to previous estimates.

Final national account figures for 1997

The revised preliminary figures for 1998 and 1999 are accompanied by final national accounts figures for 1997. They show a growth in the GDP from 1996 to 1997 of 4.7 per cent measured in constant prices. This implies a positive revision on 0.4 percentage points compared with the preliminary figures published last year. The revision is due to a positive revision in the balance of trade of goods and services, while the final domestic use of goods and services remains unchanged 6.4 per cent. The growth in total consumption in households and NPISHs is not changed more than 0.1 percentage points from the figures presented last year. There are however more significant revisions in the different consumption categories. The households' consumption of goods is adjusted down by 0.5 percentage points, while the households consumption of services is adjusted up by 0,9 percentage points. The increase in the consumption in general government is revised from 2.8 to 1.9 per cent. The growth in the gross capital formation was revised up by 0.9 percentage points. The surplus on the balance of goods and services in current prices is revised from 77.1 to 81.9 billion NOK.

Sequence of revisions

The national accounts follow a fixed cycle of revisions, where it takes about two years from the first preliminary figures are published until the final figures are presented. There are three main reasons for revisions. Firstly new statistical information about a certain year is exploited, secondly more detailed and accurate accounting methods are used, and finally the base year is changed. For preliminary annual and quarterly figures where the quarterly national accounts model is used for compilation of the figures, the last final national accounts year is used as a base year. That means that 1997 now is used as a basis year for the calculation of the figures for 1998 and 1999.