National accounts, September 2002

Moderate growth for household consumption expenditure

The timing of Easter, in March of this year, resulted in more significant uncertainties in the growth rates for the 1 ^{s t} , 2 ^{n d} and 3 ^{r d} quarters than usual. According to the preliminary seasonally adjusted volume figures, consumption expenditure for households and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH) rose by 0.4 per cent from the 2 ^{n d} to the 3 ^{r d} quarter, after an increase of 0.6 per cent from the 1 ^{s t} to the 2 ^{n d} quarter. The quarterly growth rates for total government consumption expenditure for the 2 ^{n d} and the 3 ^{r d} quarter were 0.6 and 0.5 per cent respectively.

For the 2 ^{n d} quarter, the quarterly growth rate for consumption expenditure by households and NPISH is unchanged from the previous publication in September, though the growth rate in the 1 ^{s t} quarter has been increased by 0.4 per cent thereby resulting in a growth rate of 1.7 per cent. Unadjusted figures for total consumption expenditure of households and NPISH, for the first half of 2002, have been revised by a 0.6 per cent increase from the September publication. The adjustment is largest for household service consumption, though non-domestic purchases by Norwegians have also been upwardly revised. The statistical base is somewhat faulty for several of the figures that have been revised. The revision originates from access to new information that clarifies development in consumption and from a new analysis on the basis of information that was accessible as of the previous publication.

Continued low investment activity

The seasonally adjusted figures show slow development in gross investments in fixed capital in Mainland-Norway so far this year. From the 2 ^{n d} to the 3 ^{r d} quarter, there was a decrease of 1.1 per cent. There was a decrease in investments within housing construction and service activities and an increase in manufacturing. The growth rates in gross investments in fixed capital in Mainland-Norway are now calculated at -2.0 and 0.9 per cent for the 1 ^{s t} and the 2 ^{n d} quarters respectively. The growth rate in the 1 ^{s t} quarter was adjusted by -1.6 percentage points, while the growth rate in the 2 ^{n d} quarter was adjusted by a 1.2 per cent increase from the September publication. The revision is due to the incorporation of information on the sale of used aeroplanes to other countries in the 1 ^{s t} quarter.

The investment in oil and gas extraction including transport via pipelines was in the 3 ^{r d} quarter 4.8 per cent higher than in the 2 ^{n d} quarter.

Continued price decrease in traditional goods export

According to the seasonally adjusted figures, the volume in the export of traditional goods increased by 1.2 per cent from the 2 ^{n d} to the 3 ^{r d} quarter. Workshop products and basic chemicals were the main contributors to the increase in the 3 ^{r d} quarter. Figures for changes in stocks in the quarterly national accounts show a decrease in inventories of workshop products from the 2 ^{n d} to the 3 ^{r d} quarter. The incorporated information on export of aeroplanes in the 1 ^{s t} quarter has affected the growth rates for the 1 ^{s t} and the 2 ^{n d} quarter from the last publication. The growth in export of traditional goods in the 1 ^{s t} and the 2 ^{n d} quarters is now calculated at -0.6 and 1.2 per cent. The national account figures for prices on traditional goods show a decrease throughout the first three quarters of this year. The result was a reduction of 2.7 per cent from the 2 ^{n d} quarter to the 3 ^{r d} quarter. The volume of export of crude oil and natural gas fell by 3.6 per cent from the 2 ^{n d} to the 3 ^{r d} quarter, after an increase of 10.8 per cent from the 1 ^{s t} to the 2 ^{n d} quarter.

The preliminary figures for the volume of import of traditional goods show a decrease of 0.5 per cent from the 2 ^{n d} to the 3 ^{r d} quarter, after a decrease of 1.2 per cent from the 1 ^{s t} to the 2 ^{n d} quarter. The price of import of traditional goods increased by 0.7 per cent from the 2 ^{n d} to the 3 ^{r d} quarter, after continuous decrease from the 1 ^{s t} quarter of 2001.

The seasonally adjusted national account figures show an increase in gross domestic product for Mainland-Norway from the 2 ^{n d} to the 3 ^{r d} quarter of 0.8 per cent, after a decrease of 0.2 per cent from the 1 ^{s t} to the 2 ^{n d} quarter. For the first three quarters of 2002, gross domestic product for Mainland-Norway was 1.5 per cent more than for the same period in 2001. The increase from the 2 ^{n d} to the 3 ^{r d} quarter is connected to the service industries, where value added rose by 1.3 per cent from the 2 ^{n d} to the 3 ^{r d} quarter, after a decrease of 1.0 per cent from the 1 ^{s t} to the 2 ^{n d} quarter. The preliminary figures show value added for manufacturing industries were reduced by 1.1 per cent from the 2 ^{n d} to the 3 ^{r d} quarter, after an increase of 1.5 per cent from the 1 ^{s t} to the 2 ^{n d} quarter. For the total gross national product, the growth rate in the 2 ^{n d} and the 3 ^{r d} quarters was 1.0 and -0.2 per cent respectively.

The 2 ^{n d} quarter growth rate in GDP Mainland-Norway has been adjusted with an increase of 0.5 percentage points from the September publication. Several industries have been revised. The adjustment can mainly be contributed to revisions in the estimates of value added in the construction industries, hotel and restaurant industries and in the transport industries.

Increase in employed persons in general government

For the number of employed persons and hours worked, preliminary, non-seasonally adjusted figures are available for the quarterly national accounts. The preliminary, unadjusted figures for total employed persons show a growth of 0.4 per cent from the 3 ^{r d} quarter 2001 to the 3 ^{r d} quarter 2002. For the 2 ^{n d} quarter, the growth rate was the same. For the 3 ^{r d} quarter, the annual growth rate for employed persons in manufacturing was -1.8 per cent, while, for the 2 ^{n d} quarter, it was -0.6 per cent. The growth in the number of employed persons in general government was 1.5 per cent in the 3 ^{r d} quarter and 1.8 per cent in the 2 ^{n d} quarter. The growth can generally be attributed to changes in health and social services figures. Calculated in number of persons, the annual figures for employed persons in general government were larger than the growth in employed persons in the country as a whole in the 2 ^{n d} and the 3 ^{r d} quarters.

Total hours worked had an annual growth of 1.2 per cent in the 3 ^{r d} quarter. Fulltime employees that were not shift-workers had an extra workday in the 3 ^{r d} quarter of 2002 as opposed to the 3 ^{r d} quarter 2001. This must be considered when evaluating the growth in this figure.

Tables

Published tables