National accounts, June 2004

According to preliminary figures, GDP growth for mainland Norway was 0.8 per cent from the first to the second quarter of this year - a level that is 3.6 per cent higher than in the same period last year. The main driving forces behind this development were growth in domestic trade, construction and some other service industries. GDP growth for Norway, including oil, was 1.2 per cent from the first to the second quarter.

Unchanged in manufacturing

In manufacturing, the level of value added has remained virtually unchanged in the last four quarters. Publishing and printing as well as machinery and refined petroleum have experienced lower growth, while the development has been positive for basic metals, wood and wood products and furniture manufacturing. The decrease in refined petroleum comes as a result of production disruptions due to maintenance of central oil refineries.

Increasing oil and gas extraction

Within crude oil and natural gas extraction, seasonally adjusted growth in production was relatively strong in the second quarter. The 1.7 per cent growth in value added in the second quarter can be attributed to increased production of both crude oil and natural gas. A strike in June did not have serious effects on Norwegian oil production.

Weak development in final household consumption expenditure

According to preliminary, seasonally adjusted volume figures, there was a slight increase in final household consumption expenditure in the second quarter. The strong development in final household consumption expenditure that has been evident since the end of 2002 thus seems to have come to a halt. However, these figures should be viewed in light of a six-week strike in the transport industry.

Consumption of goods increased by a weak 0.4 per cent in the second quarter of 2004, as opposed to an average growth in the previous three quarters of 1.2 per cent. This weak development can primarily be attributed to a decrease in consumption of food products.

There was a slight growth in consumption of services from the first to the second quarter, while direct purchases abroad by resident households decreased in the same period.

Final consumption expenditure in general government increased by 1.5 per cent. Consumption by local government grew by 0.7 per cent.

Increased investment activity

According to seasonally adjusted figures, investment activity in mainland Norway has picked up, and second quarter growth was 3.9 per cent. This marks a break with the downward trend that has lasted for three years. The figures show a clear increase in household gross fixed capital formation, which is at its highest level since the late 1980s. Preliminary figures also show a clear increase in investment activity in general government.

Gross capital formation within oil and gas extraction has also increased during the last two years, and although the level is higher than in earlier years of this century it is still significantly lower than in the peak year of 1998.

Continued growth in imports

The preliminary figures for the volume of exports of traditional goods show a decrease of 1.3 per cent in both the first and second quarter of this year. The decrease can mainly be attributed to lower exports of refined oil products. Exports of traditional goods excluding refined petroleum products show an increase of 1.5 per cent in the second quarter of 2004.

The volume of total imports increased by 1.3 per cent in the second quarter, following a growth of 2.1 per cent and 3.2 per cent in the first quarter of 2004 and the fourth quarter of 2003 respectively. Imports of traditional goods increased by 3.5 per cent in the second quarter, the largest contributors being machinery, metals and chemical and mineral products.

The balance of payments shows increased trade surplus in the second quarter. Figures for the first six months of 2004 show that the trade surplus is NOK 12.4 billion higher than in the same period last year. For monthly balance of payment figures , click here.

Lower employment

Preliminary, seasonally adjusted employment figures show a slight fall in employment in the first quarter followed by a slight increase of 0.5 per cent in the second quarter. Growth in wages and salaries per full-time equivalent has been estimated to be 3.7 per cent higher in the second quarter of 2004 than in second quarter of 2003 - a higher growth rate than the 2.8 per cent increase in the first quarter of 2004.

Revised figures for first quarter 2004

On the basis of new information, some figures for the first quarter of 2004 have been adjusted. GDP growth for mainland Norway, seasonally adjusted, has been adjusted from 0.5 per cent to 0.9 per cent. Investment activity growth for mainland Norway previously showed a decline of 1.7 per cent, but has now been adjusted to unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2003. Export growth figures have been adjusted from a decrease of 1.9 per cent to a decrease of 1.3 per cent. The other macroeconomic figures are only marginally revised.

Tables

Published tables