The importance of lower secondary results on completion rates in upper secondary education

Almost all pupils who finish lower secondary school have a direct transition to upper secondary education. Most of these complete upper secondary education by obtaining a diploma, trade certificate or journeyman’s certificate, but not all. This report examines the importance of lower secondary school grades and results from national tests for the completion of upper secondary education. To shed light on the various questions in this report, we examine students who completed lower secondary school and started upper secondary school in 2011, 2012 and 2013. Our analysis basis are pupils who have achievement marks from lower secondary school and who followed the same curriculum. Pupils with results from national tests are included in the analyses where we examine the significance of these results on the completion of upper secondary school.

The results from our analyses indicate that an increase in the overall marks in the common subjects increases the probability of completing upper secondary education both according to normative length of study and within five/six years. The significance of achievement marks in certain subjects from lower secondary school depends on which other explanatory variables are included in the analysis models. Nevertheless, the completion of upper secondary school is more related to achievement marks in certain subjects. Achievement marks in physical education and social studies are of highest importance. The overall marks in the common subjects has greater effect on completion among students in vocational than general studies. Marks in science have a significantly greater effect for completion according to normative length of study for students in vocational studies than for students in general studies. On the other hand, it is marks in social and philosophical subjects that have the strongest positive effect for students in general studies.

We also find a positive correlation between having a third language in upper secondary school and completion according to normative length of study. This correlation is somewhat weaker when it comes to completing upper secondary education within five/six years.

Being selected to take an exam at the secondary school has a positive correlation with the completion of upper secondary education, both according to normative length of study and within five/six years. There is a higher correlation between being selected to take an exam in mathematics and completing upper secondary education according to normative length of study. However, the difference between the individual subjects are minimal when we examine completion of upper secondary education within five/six years.

Results from national tests also have a positive correlation with completion of upper secondary education, and we find that it is the results from national tests in mathematics that have the greatest significance for the probability of completing upper secondary education within five/six years. In addition, we find that going from mastering level 2 to 3 has a greater effect on the probability of completing upper secondary education within five/six years, than for example, going from mastering level 4 to 5. Results from national test have greater significance among students in general studies.

Marks from lower secondary school are linked to results from national tests. Relatively speaking, both achievement and examination marks have a greater effect on the completion of upper secondary school education than results from national tests.