Discussion Papers no. 559

Effects on prices and trade patterns

Globalisation of natural gas markets

Publisert:

Åpne og les publikasjonen i PDF (18 sider)

The regional natural gas markets are expected to gradually become more integrated. The major driving forces are lower LNG costs, more spot trade, and increased need for imports into the US and other key markets. In this paper we examine various scenarios for a future global gas market, particularly focusing on natural gas prices and trade patterns. We use a numerical model of the international energy markets, with detailed modelling of regional gas production and international gas transport. Scenarios with different assumptions about future demand and supply conditions are simulated. Our results suggest that trade between continents will grow considerably over the next couple of decades, and that prices in the main import regions will remain around current levels. However, significant constraints on exports from the Middle East may alter this picture.

Om publikasjonen

Tittel

Globalisation of natural gas markets. Effects on prices and trade patterns

Ansvarlige

Finn Roar Aune, Eirik Lund Sagen, Knut Einar Rosendahl

Serie og -nummer

Discussion Papers no. 559

Utgiver

Statistics Norway

Emne

Discussion Papers

Antall sider

18

Målform

Engelsk

Om Discussion Papers

Discussion papers comprise research papers intended for international journals and books. A preprint of a Discussion Paper may be longer and more elaborate than a standard journal article as it may include intermediate calculations, background material etc.

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