Discussion Papers no. 340

The importance of interest rates for forecasting the exchange rate

This study compares the forecasting performance of a structural exchange rate model that combines the purchasing power parity condition with the interest rate differential in the long run, with some alternative models. The analysis is applied to the Norwegian exchange rate. The long run equilibrium relationship is embedded in a parsimonious representation for the exchange rate. The structural exchange rate representation is stable over the sample and outperforms a random walk in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise at one to four horizons. Ignoring the interest rate differential in the long run, however, the structural model no longer outperforms a random walk.

Om publikasjonen

Tittel

The importance of interest rates for forecasting the exchange rate

Ansvarlige

Hilde Christiane Bjørnland, Håvard Hungnes

Serie og -nummer

Discussion Papers no. 340

Utgiver

Statistics Norway

Emne

Discussion Papers

Antall sider

21

Målform

Engelsk

Om Discussion Papers

Discussion papers comprise research papers intended for international journals and books. A preprint of a Discussion Paper may be longer and more elaborate than a standard journal article as it may include intermediate calculations, background material etc.

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